EPAC: KEVIN - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: KEVIN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Aug 30, 2015 2:13 am

EPAC continues to be active.

97E INVEST 150830 0600 9.7N 107.7W EPAC 20 1009

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are favorable for slow development of this system, and
this disturbance is likely to become a tropical depression by
mid-week while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Thu Sep 03, 2015 3:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Aug 30, 2015 7:00 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are
conducive for slow development, and this system is likely to become
a tropical depression in a few days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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#3 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:09 pm

Looks the current forecast calls for northwesterly track off of Baja and possibly recurve to the northeast for a northern Baja landfall;
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

San Diego's current SST is at 78 F so if the track goes a little further west and recurves to the northeast a little later than the current track, do you think this thing could possibly hit us as a TS?
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#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:29 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:Looks the current forecast calls for northwesterly track off of Baja and possibly recurve to the northeast for a northern Baja landfall;
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

San Diego's current SST is at 78 F so if the track goes a little further west and recurves to the northeast a little later than the current track, do you think this thing could possibly hit us as a TS?


No. While SST's near San Diego are at 78F, a couple hundred miles offshore, they are much cooler.
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#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Aug 30, 2015 12:31 pm

50/80

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and this system is likely to become
a tropical depression within the next two to three days while it
moves toward the northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 30, 2015 1:04 pm

Another model war looming. the GFS and its ensembles bring this near Baja along with the NOGPAS and CMC and UKMET I think. ECMWf and FIM8 and FIM9 shows some N movement before the ridge re-builds back in and the storms goes west.
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#7 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 30, 2015 1:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Another model war looming. the GFS and its ensembles bring this near Baja along with the NOGPAS and CMC and UKMET I think. ECMWf and FIM8 and FIM9 shows some N movement before the ridge re-builds back in and the storms goes west.


The climatological favored track as we near September and October would tend to be a recurve scenario back toward the Baja. There is a rather robust CCKW advancing E across the dateline and the MJO is trending to a more favorable pattern regarding tropical development closer to the Eastern Pacific and even the Western Atlantic Basin as we near the climatological peak of Hurricane season in the EPAC and the NATL Basins.
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Re: Re:

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 30, 2015 1:47 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Another model war looming. the GFS and its ensembles bring this near Baja along with the NOGPAS and CMC and UKMET I think. ECMWf and FIM8 and FIM9 shows some N movement before the ridge re-builds back in and the storms goes west.


The climatological favored track as we near September and October would tend to be a recurve scenario back toward the Baja. There is a rather robust CCKW advancing E across the dateline and the MJO is trending to a more favorable pattern regarding tropical development closer to the Eastern Pacific and even the Western Atlantic Basin as we near the climatological peak of Hurricane season in the EPAC and the NATL Basins.


Hence why I'm favoring the eastward camp.
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#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 30, 2015 5:25 pm

For any west coast landfall, the storm needs to be moving really fast.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 30, 2015 6:44 pm

Up to 70%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 650 miles miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while
it begins to move northwestward at about 10 mph. If development has
not occurred by mid-week, less favorable upper-level winds could
make tropical cyclone formation less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#11 Postby Iknownothing » Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:44 pm

Liking the looks of this one. With all this activity this season in the Epac we haven't really had a storm that's a good swell producer for Socal. I'm thinking back to Hurricane Marie last year. Really hoping for something even close to that. :eek:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#12 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:04 pm

Iknownothing wrote:Liking the looks of this one. With all this activity this season in the Epac we haven't really had a storm that's a good swell producer for Socal. I'm thinking back to Hurricane Marie last year. Really hoping for something even close to that. :eek:


I'd rather it produce what Dolores did for us or perhaps something even more. Big surf is good but we need the rain more badly.
I'd like to see it parallel Baja and then make a northeasterly turn right into the San Diego area as a tropical depression.
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#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:25 pm

Likely will be declared tomorrow. Right now thinking this is a possible Baja threat.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:52 pm

Image

WTPN21 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 107.6W TO 14.4N 112.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 108.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4N 108.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
FORMATIVE PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT IS LOOSELY WRAPPING. A 302338Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING MODERATE VWS. GLOBAL FORECAST
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010400Z.//
NNNN
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#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:56 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 650 miles miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
begins to move northwestward at about 10 mph. If development has not
occurred by mid-week, less favorable upper-level winds could make
tropical cyclone formation less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:55 pm

An area of low pressure located about 750 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better
defined today. The associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently located well southeast of the center, but any increase in
the organization of the this activity could result in the formation
of a tropical depression later today or on Tuesday while the system
moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
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#17 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:39 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

Animation of recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low pressure area well to the south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has a
well-defined circulation. Recently, deep convection has formed
near and partially over the center. On this basis, the system is
being designated as a tropical depression. The current intensity
estimate is 30 kt, which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak
estimates at 1800 UTC. The tropical cyclone is not in an ideal
environment for strengthening. A broad upper-level cyclone to the
northwest is producing southwesterly shear in the path of the
depression, and global models predict that this shear may briefly
relax in 1 to 2 days, but increase thereafter. Although the
official intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance,
it nonetheless shows weakening to a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge
currently to the north of the depression is forecast to shift
eastward over the next few days. As a result, the tropical
cyclone should turn toward the north in 48 to 72 hours. There is
some spread in the model guidance, including significant
differences in predicted forward speed. As a compromise, the
official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance,
and close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 12.4N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 16.3N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 18.3N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 21.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 23.3N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 24.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:25 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
900 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

There has been little overall change in the cloud pattern of the
depression this evening. The system is producing some very deep
convection over the southern portion of the circulation, with only
slight evidence of banding features. Upper-level outflow is rather
limited at this time, and mainly over the southern semicircle of
the circulation. The current intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt,
which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The
environment is expected to be only marginally conducive for
intensification over the next day or two. A large upper-level
trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone should produce
15 to 20 kt of vertical shear on the cyclone for the couple of
days. This could allow for some slow strengthening during the next
36 to 48 hours, as shown in the official intensity forecast. Late
in the period, however, the shear is forecast to become
prohibitively strong and the system is likely to degenerate into
remnant low in 5 days or less.

The center is not easy to locate but based on the last-light
visible images, the motion is estimated to be 290/8. A mid-
tropospheric ridge currently to the north of the depression is
forecast to shift gradually eastward while a trough becomes
established to the west of California and the northern Baja
California peninsula. This evolution of the steering pattern is
likely to result in the cyclone turning northward and then north-
northeastward. By the end of the forecast period, however, the
cyclone will likely have become quite shallow and consequently move
very slowly within the weak low-level environmental flow. The
official track forecast is based largely on a dynamical model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 12.4N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.2N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.3N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.1N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 22.7N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 23.4N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:50 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A couple of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0530 UTC showed that the
cyclone was not quite yet producing tropical-storm-force winds--but
it was close. A burst of convection has recently developed near
the low-level center, but the overall convective pattern is
somewhat elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based
on the scatterometer data. The depression still appears to be
experiencing some vertical shear, but this shear should stay below
15 kt for the next 36 hours or so. Therefore, some gradual
strengthening is expected during that time. Vertical shear
increases significantly after 48 hours due to the flow ahead of a
large upper-level trough west of the California coast, and the
cyclone should therefore weaken back to a depression by day 3 and
degenerate to a remnant low by day 4. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus and largely unchanged
from the previous advisory.

The ASCAT data made the low-level center a little easier to locate,
and the initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn toward the northwest and north during the next
couple of days as it moves between a mid-level anticyclone over
Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of the Baja California
peninsula. However, once it becomes a remnant low, the system is
likely to become trapped in weak low-level flow, meandering or
becoming nearly stationary southwest of the Baja California
peninsula by day 5. The NHC track forecast is closest to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 12.6N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.2N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 20.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

The cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is
not very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers
have not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The
depression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during
the next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds
ahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is
close to the consensus and similar to the previous one.

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7
kt. The depression is forecast to be steered toward the
north-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough
located to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward
the north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is
expected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow.
Little motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by
most of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very
closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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