EPAC: KEVIN - Post-Tropical

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Extratropical94
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#21 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:47 pm

Say hi to Kevin.

14E KEVIN 150901 1800 13.6N 113.9W EPAC 35 1005
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#22 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:16 pm

Ugh looks like this might be a waste of a name... :lol:
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Re:

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:40 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Ugh looks like this might be a waste of a name... :lol:


Just means we'll get further down the list.
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Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:41 pm

Remains as TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the system has not become
better organized and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates
that the cyclone remains at depression strength. Therefore, the
initial intensity remains at 30 kt. The environment is expected to
be only marginally conducive for some intensification during the
next couple of days. An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough
situated to the northwest of the depression is forecast to produce
modest southwesterly shear during the next couple of days. Beyond
the 48 hour period, the depression will be moving into a
significantly more stable and drier air mass which should induce a
more rapid decay of the cyclone. The official intensity forecast is
close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the Florida State
Superensemble and is essentially an update from the previous
advisory.

The initial motion is northwestward or, 320/8 kt. The cyclone is
expected to gradually move between a mid-level high pressure system
over Mexico and the aforementioned deep-layer trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 2-3 days. Beyond the 72
hour period, the depression is expected to degenerate into a
shallow, weak, system and is likely to meander in very weak
low-level steering currents southwest of the Baja California
peninsula until dissipation. The NHC forecast is a little bit
faster than the previous advisory and follows the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF)
consensus closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.1N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.1N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 22.4N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 24.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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#25 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:59 pm

Well never mind about that, for now...
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:54 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

The depression is no better organized than it was earlier today.
Satellite imagery shows the cyclone with a couple of loosely
organized bands without much curvature over the eastern half of
circulation. This assymetric and disorganized cloud pattern is
indicative of southwesterly shear induced by a mid- to upper-level
tropospheric trough to the northwest of the depression. The initial
intensity estimate is 30 kt, based on a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates.

A relative reduction in vertical shear is forecast in 24 to 36
hours, when the trough to the west of the depression shears out. All
other factors being equal at that time, this should present the
cyclone with a limited opportunity for intensification. After 48
hours, the cyclone should meet a harsh environment of very dry air
and southwesterly shear associated with an unusually deep trough
digging along the U.S. west coast. The global models indicate that
the shear should be strong enough that the low- to mid-level
circulations separate in about 72 hours, with dissipation by day 5.
The intensity guidance has decreased across the board, and the new
intensity forecast shows less intensification but still with a peak
in 24 to 36 hours. This new forecast, however, is higher than the
statistical-dynamical guidance.

The depression's center is difficult to locate, but a blend of the
latest fixes and a continuity provide an initial motion estimate of
325/08. A south-southeasterly to southerly steering flow between a
subtropical ridge over Mexico and the trough to the west should
cause the depression to gradually turn northward in 24 to 36 hours.
Once the cyclone crosses 20N, strong southwesterly flow ahead of
the amplifying western U.S. trough should cause recurvature.
However, the decoupling of the system will leave the low-level
center behind, moving slowly northeastward. By day 4, the remnant
low should drift erratically and then turn southward in the
low-level flow until dissipation. The new track forecast is a
little slower than the previous one based on a blend of the GFS and
ECWMF model solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 14.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 20.1N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: Re:

#27 Postby CaliforniaResident » Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:08 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Ugh looks like this might be a waste of a name... :lol:


Just means we'll get further down the list.


I also would prefer it actually reach TS status just to get going on the list; last year at this time we were on "N". We may have major ACE energy in the EPAC but we are falling behind on named storms.
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Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:56 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,
but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east
of the low-level center. Unfortunately ASCAT missed the
circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB
were steady or decreased from six hours ago. Therefore, the
cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.

The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level
trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over
the cyclone. The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should
allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.
However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the
depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent
an asymmetric convective pattern. The new NHC intensity forecast
continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching
tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak
intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory. An
increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to
become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the
depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.

Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the
depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 335/9 kt. A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a
deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should
steer the depression generally northward through day 3. Once it
becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift
westward in the low-level flow. There are considerable speed
differences between the track models, presumably a result of how
soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared. The updated NHC
track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and
is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#29 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:48 pm

EP, 14, 2015090218, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1149W, 30, 1005, TD

I'm starting to doubt that this is ever going to develop.
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#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:12 pm

Don't know why this isn't Kevin.

EP, 14, 201509021800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 11460W, , 3, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, VIM, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=2.0 BO SHR MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT
EP, 14, 201509021800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1690N, 11470W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MF, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

ADT is at T2.5.
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Re:

#31 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:46 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Don't know why this isn't Kevin.

EP, 14, 201509021800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 11460W, , 3, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, VIM, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=2.0 BO SHR MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT
EP, 14, 201509021800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1690N, 11470W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MF, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

ADT is at T2.5.


just wait an hour

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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:57 pm

Image

becoming exposed
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015

Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared
depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to
the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops.
Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of
the cyclone's surface center. Subsequently, the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB. Guidance still indicates that the depression could
become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours. Afterward, the
cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of
the IVCN and FSSE forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt. The depression is
forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system
over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days. As the tropical
cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow
collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a
generally north-northwestward direction or meander until
dissipation. The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and
is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF
blend) model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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#34 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:56 pm

While it still has a small window to strengthen, this one is probably going to remain a depression.
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#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:05 pm

EP, 14, 2015090300, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1150W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,

Pressure down 1 mbar.
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Re: EPAC: FOURTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center
of the depression. Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent
much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour.
The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the
initial intensity remains 30 kt. I suspect this is on the
conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the
latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is
more concrete data to support an upgrade. The cyclone has about a
day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air
infiltrates the circulation. Remnant low status is anticipated
by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions. The NHC
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit
higher than the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt. The global models
are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level
high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of
the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. The
biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone
becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response
to the low-level flow. In general, the model guidance has trended a
bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is
shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#37 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:40 pm

According to that just a bit more organization would justify naming it.
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#38 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:45 pm

If this does become Kevin, that name hasn't had a particularly strong showing in the past aside from 1991. 1985-TS, 1991-4, 1997-TS, 2003-TS, 2009-TS.
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#39 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 3:26 am

Ok. "Say hi to Kevin" - take 2
14E FOURTEEN 150903 0600 17.2N 115.3W EPAC 35 1004
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#40 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 3:46 am

Finally:

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 115.3W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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