EPAC: KEVIN - Post-Tropical

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1900hurricane
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#61 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:42 pm

The CDO looks like it is about to be ripped off.

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Re: EPAC: KEVIN - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Kevin is weakening. Its circulation center is on the southern edge
of large circular mass of deep convection that the cyclone has
maintained since overnight. A sequence of microwave images shows a
gradual dislocation of low- to mid-level centers, evidence that
south-southwesterly shear is taking its toll. Dvorak intensity
estimates are gradually decreasing, and a blend of these data is
used to lower the intensity to 45 kt.

Quick weakening is likely to continue. A mid- to upper-level trough
impinging on Kevin from the west should produce even stronger shear
soon, and global models depict a decoupling of the cyclone in 12
hours or less. Much drier mid- to upper-tropospheric air associated
with the trough should also reach Kevin's circulation and result in
a collapse of deep convection during the next day or so. The new
intensity forecast calls for a rapid decline, with remnant
low status by 36 hours and dissipation by 3 days.

Kevin has been moving due northward, and the initial motion estimate
is 360/07. This general motion is expected until the cyclone fully
decouples on Saturday. After that time, the shallower cyclone
should gain a greater westerly component of motion as it meets the
opposing flow around the low-level subtropical ridge over the
eastern Pacific. The new track forecast is adjusted to the right
again due to a delay in the north-northwestward motion forecast in
previous model runs to have begun by now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 22.0N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 23.4N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 23.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: KEVIN - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Satellite images indicate that the area of convection on the north
side of Kevin continues to move farther away from the apparent
center. The low-level circulation also appeared to be elongating
from north to south on the last light visible imagery, with a
recent microwave pass confirming that degraded structure. A blend
of Dvorak estimates supports lowering the intensity to 40 kt.
Remnant low status is expected by 36 hours, with the circulation
probably degenerating into a trough by day 3.

The center is getting harder to track, but I don't see convincing
evidence that the initial motion has changed from the previous
advisory, so it will remain 360/07. A leftward turn should occur
overnight due to the cyclone decoupling from its mid-level center
and being steered more by the low-level flow. The shallower cyclone
should then gain a greater westerly component of motion this weekend
as it moves around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern
Pacific. The new track forecast is basically just an update of the
previous one, and is south of the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.7N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 23.4N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 24.1N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 24.2N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 05, 2015 9:36 am

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050834
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015

South-southwesterly shear around 30 kt has displaced all remaining
deep convection northeastward over the central Baja California
peninsula, more than 120 n mi northeast of the presumed low-level
center. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the western half of the
circulation and showed no tropical storm force winds. The initial
intensity is set at 35 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak numbers,
with the assumption that tropical storm force winds might still be
occurring within the eastern side of the circulation, which wasn't
sampled by the scatterometer. Strong shear will continue advecting
the leftover convection away from the low-level circulation, and
barring redevelopment of new convection, Kevin will likely become a
remnant low later today. Winds are forecast to quickly decrease,
and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity
consensus. Kevin is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, as shown by
the latest global model fields.

The center has been difficult to locate, but microwave images
suggest that it has been tugged northeastward by the convection.
The initial motion is 010/6 kt, but now that Kevin is becoming a
shallow cyclone, it should be steered slowly northwestward and
then westward by 36 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is a
little east of the previous one, only because of the adjusted
initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 23.6N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 24.0N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 24.1N 116.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: KEVIN - Post-Tropical

#65 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 05, 2015 12:19 pm

30kts of shear? What a wimp. Fred wins this fight. :lol:
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