WPAC : ETAU - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:24 am

WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FAIRLY TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE MSI AS WELL AS A 080526Z SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AS THE OVERALL CONVECTION
OF THE SYSTEM HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THEN PAST 6 HOURS AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
VERY HIGH VWS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
FAR NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS WELL AS BEING ENVELOPED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE TOUGH. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH-CENTRAL HONSHU, GOOD
OHC AND SSTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 12.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DECAY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE PEAKS OF THE DAIKŌ MOUNTAIN RANGE PAST TAU 12. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS JUST NORTH OF KYOTO BY TAU 24, EXPECT CONTINUED
DISSIPATION AS VWS INCREASES AND THE LOW OHC VALUES OF THE SEA OF
JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC AS THE STR RETREATS DUE TO TY 03C AND THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED THOUGH THE SYSTEM. TS 18W WILL BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD IN THE PAST 6
HOURS, SPECIFICALLY WITH MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKENED SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
24. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:31 am

AMSU estimate is up to 59 knots at least it's closer than what JTWC and JMA thinks...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:43 am

Although convection is weaker on the northeastern side, Etau once again sports an eye. Looks like it's been a typhoon for over 12 hours already...

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:50 am

VMAX 06Z is at 75 knots and pressure of 979 mb...

Earlier..

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:31 am

Latest EURO has a typhoon at landfall although it's been underestimating the intensity like the agencies...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:08 am

18W ETAU 150908 1200 31.2N 138.3E WPAC 45 989

Remains 45 knots...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#47 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:56 am

did JT not look at ASCAT? Just what are they getting 45 kts on?

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bas254.png
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2843
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Norman, OK

#48 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:03 pm

55 knots.

18W ETAU 150908 1800 33.3N 138.0E WPAC 55 982
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:47 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED SYSTEM THAT RECENTLY UNDERWENT A FLARE
UP IN CONVECTION JUST PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH THE JAPANESE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS THAT CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO DISSIPATE. IN ADDITION, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STARTING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AN 081752Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT CURVED BANDING AT THE SURFACE WHICH, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RJTD RADAR FIXES, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OLDER ASCAT PASS AND CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TS 18W IS BEGINNING TO EMBED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENGULFING THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCING HIGH
(30-40 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS ETAU IS
TRACKING BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ENLARGED BASED ON AN 081130Z ASCAT PASS.
B. TS 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AS IT CROSSES OVER MAINLAND JAPAN. IN ADDITION, TS ETAU WILL EMBED
FURTHER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CONTINUE TO GAIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. TS 18W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER AS A WEAK COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH LEND TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15387
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:03 am

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ETAU) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 37.0N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 37.0N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.2N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.3N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 37.6N 135.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL OF TS 18W HAS BEEN COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION
BY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JAPANESE ALPS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI AS WELL AS A 090608Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, IT
WILL BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ENERGY FROM TS 18W IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN, PERHAPS IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN
HONSHU OUTSIDE THIS TROPICAL WARNING AS A GALE-FORCE BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 03C (KILO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: WPAC : ETAU - Post-Tropical

#51 Postby supercane » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:59 am

Very heavy rain has fallen in Tochigi Prefecture. See http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20150910/k10010223431000.html (in Japanese), which states that Nikko received 59.5 mm (2.34") in 1 hour, and that many sites in the prefecture received more than 400 mm (15.75") in 24 hrs, approaching 1 in 50 year rainfall records.

JMA also wrote its last advisory.

WTPQ21 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 1518 ETAU (1518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 38N 135E
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST =
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest