ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

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ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:19 pm

Here we go with the Eastern Atlantic Wave.

91L INVEST 150903 1800 10.6N 15.3W ATL 15 1010

Thread that was the topic for this wave at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117518
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#2 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:31 pm

Something to monitor, doesn't seem fishy.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:44 pm

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
the potential for some gradual development as it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:Here we go with the Eastern Atlantic Wave.

91L INVEST 150903 1800 10.6N 15.3W ATL 15 1010
Hey cycloneye, you forgot to include the link to the closed Talking Tropics thread for this system. For the benefit of those who want to know the history of 91L, here it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:16 pm

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Here we go with the Eastern Atlantic Wave.

91L INVEST 150903 1800 10.6N 15.3W ATL 15 1010
Hey cycloneye, you forgot to include the link to the closed Talking Tropics thread for this system. For the benefit of those who want to know the history of 91L, here it is.


Forgot that but is now at first post.Thank you for the reminder.
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#6 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:38 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015



A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN AFRICA WIT AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N14W TO 08N14W...MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 10W-18W AND IS LARGELY LOW-
AMPLITUDE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURROUNDS THIS WAVE AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:07 pm

Saved image - pretty good area of convection to the north of the low center. Let's see if this can hold together over the next 24-48 hours:

Image
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#8 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:32 pm

Should have little issue becoming a named storm within a low wind shear, adequately moist environment. In addition, a strong CCKW is currently pushing eastward across the Atlantic; this should give 91L a boost over the coming days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:22 pm

It really reconvected nicely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:25 pm

yep, we've got a vigorous and good looking wave with deep convection. low shear, decent thermodynamics and water temps. In short it's located in a proven breeding ground. So, I'm at a loss and trying to figure out why the models ( GFS in particular ) aren't more bullish on this? While I wouldn't bet on explosive development...I also would not be surprised. I'd lay odds on hurricane and would bet heavy on at least tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:33 pm

hurricanehunter69 wrote:yep, we've got a vigorous and good looking wave with deep convection. low shear, decent thermodynamics and water temps. In short it's located in a proven breeding ground. So, I'm at a loss and trying to figure out why the models ( GFS in particular ) aren't more bullish on this? While I wouldn't bet on explosive development...I also would not be surprised. I'd lay odds on hurricane and would bet heavy on at least tropical storm.

Ahead of it is a lot of dry air it seems, what is the ridge like for the next couple of days?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:46 am

It really looks good up to 60 per cent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:48 am

It looks healthy it was just bumped up to 60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby Riptide » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:10 am

Last edited by tolakram on Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added URL tags
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:16 am

emeraldislenc wrote:It looks healthy it was just bumped up to 60 percent.


Also short-term code orange.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system
shows signs of organization and has the potential for some
development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:25 am

Best looking wave I have seen in a whole looks great!
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#17 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:30 am

I would say based on cloud movement and backed up by ASCAT, the center appears to be near 11N/31W (roughly on the western edge of the convection) and it's still embedded in the ITCZ, quite elongated to the west.

None of the models aside from the GFS develops this and given the fact that it is likely less organized at the surface than satellite indicates, I think this is going to have very similar problems to Erika as far as organizing, and would not be surprised if it doesn't develop at all.
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Re:

#18 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:30 am

Hammy wrote:I ... would not be surprised if it doesn't develop at all.
I would be surprised though. Very surprised.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby beoumont » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:42 am

KAHUNA!!

1st light and jsl:

Image
Last edited by beoumont on Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#20 Postby hiflyer » Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:53 am

Very similar to Fred in that when it came off the coast it began to 'hit the ground running'. If this Invest has any of Fred's tenacity then this could become interesting 'down the road' for a bit.
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