ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%-70%

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is moving well south of the Cape Verde Islands. This
system has the potential to become a tropical depression as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Sanibel]

This one might break the curse if it goes above the islands.



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[gatorcane]

Up to 50%-70%

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is moving well south of the Cape Verde Islands. This
system has the potential to become a tropical depression as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

As of 18:00 UTC Sep 04, 2015:


Location: 11.1°N 21.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[gatorcane]

Showing signs of organization to me.

Latest loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[emeraldislenc]

When does anyone think it might be designated as a depression?

[wxman57]

12Z GFS indicates an environment ahead of it that might allow for a TD or weak TS to form initially (next day or two), but the farther west it goes, the more hostile the environment becomes. Dissipation in about 6 days, east of the Caribbean.

[abajan]

12Z GFS indicates an environment ahead of it that might allow for a TD or weak TS to form initially (next day or two), but the farther west it goes, the more hostile the environment becomes. Dissipation in about 6 days, east of the Caribbean.

Who really knows how it will react to those conditions? Heck, Fred paid scant respect to 35 knots of shear!

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/1745 UTC 11.1N 21.0W T1.0/1.0 91L
04/1200 UTC 11.3N 19.5W T1.0/1.0 91L

[Hammy]

When does anyone think it might be designated as a depression?

I say never, there may be too much interaction with the system to the west to prevent that side from closing off before it reaches the shear wall.

[gatorcane]

Up to 70/80

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape
Verde Islands. This system continues to show signs of organization
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[emeraldislenc]

I would say a depression by 24 hours if not sooner!

[abajan]

I would say a depression by 24 hours if not sooner!

Seems likely to me too.

[TheStormExpert]

Here we go again!

[gatorcane]

Saved IR loop, convection certainly has not poofed and there continues to be signs of organization this evening as the system moves generally westward:

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015



A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N21W INTO A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 15 TO 20 KT.

[Gustywind]

Saved IR loop, convection certainly has not poofed and there continues to be signs of organization this evening as the system moves generally westward:

Agree gator. And look further east the massive blob on Africa... impressive!

[Gustywind]

Reflecting the increasing numbers for 91L...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/2345 UTC 11.2N 22.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
04/1745 UTC 11.1N 21.0W T1.0/1.0 91L
04/1200 UTC 11.3N 19.5W T1.0/1.0 91L

[gatorcane]

Saved IR loop, convection certainly has not poofed and there continues to be signs of organization this evening as the system moves generally westward:

http://i.imgur.com/tVaLZL4.gif

Agree gator. And look further east the massive blob on Africa... impressive!

Some of the models are developing this one too. The GFS looks to blow it up into a hurricane recurving over the Central Atlantic on the 18Z run.

[Gustywind]

Saved IR loop, convection certainly has not poofed and there continues to be signs of organization this evening as the system moves generally westward:

http://i.imgur.com/tVaLZL4.gif

Agree gator. And look further east the massive blob on Africa... impressive!

Some of the models are developing this one too. The GFS looks to blow it up into a hurricane recurving over the Central Atlantic on the 18Z run.

oK thanks for this info. Let's wait and see already with 91L, because of the twaves train seem on tape.