ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Another storm in an el nino year, destined to be kept in check by shear if current NHC forecasts are correct. If this was a neutral or nina year, this would have probably been something to watch out for. Always prepare though, you never know. My guess is this will be an open wave by the time it makes it to the Caribbean.

I have to respectfully disagree Emmett. I'm sure you've heard the football expression "a game of inches". Well, thus far a couple of hurricanes have approached the Caribbean. One resulted in at least 20 deaths (in Dominica). Could have easily been more, or could have very easily caused a broader impact through other neighboring islands. What about Hurricane Danny? What if the upper level wind shear that decoupled Danny were perhaps a couple hundred miles further west and a Cat. 3 just happened to plow into Puerto Rico. Sure, there might had been little left of Danny to eventually impact the Conus but at least for the Eastern Caribbean, i think everyone (Ninel included) would have to admit that Grace and other potential storms this year, are absolutely "something to watch for". As was pointed out by another poster earlier today "all storms eventually die". What's relevant here is beyond whether a hurricane might make it all the way to impact some point of our own particular interest.

[chaser1]

As a side-note to the above, Larry had just posted "So, the record high during the satellite era's 6 developing strong+ El Nino seasons was only 2 til this season's 4! So, 2015 is clearly on its own with regard to storms that formed E of 50W. Furthermore, there's no telling that we're done at 4 being that it is only 9/6."

I think it would be short sighted for any of us to so easily assume what this season will or will not bring.

[ninel conde]

Another storm in an el nino year, destined to be kept in check by shear if current NHC forecasts are correct. If this was a neutral or nina year, this would have probably been something to watch out for. Always prepare though, you never know. My guess is this will be an open wave by the time it makes it to the Caribbean.

I have to respectfully disagree Emmett. I'm sure you've heard the football expression "a game of inches". Well, thus far a couple of hurricanes have approached the Caribbean. One resulted in at least 20 deaths (in Dominica). Could have easily been more, or could have very easily caused a broader impact through other neighboring islands. What about Hurricane Danny? What if the upper level wind shear that decoupled Danny were perhaps a couple hundred miles further west and a Cat. 3 just happened to plow into Puerto Rico. Sure, there might had been little left of Danny to eventually impact the Conus but at least for the Eastern Caribbean, i think everyone (Ninel included) would have to admit that Grace and other potential storms this year, are absolutely "something to watch for". As was pointed out by another poster earlier today "all storms eventually die". What's relevant here is beyond whether a hurricane might make it all the way to impact some point of our own particular interest.

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[ninel conde]

Another storm in an el nino year, destined to be kept in check by shear if current NHC forecasts are correct. If this was a neutral or nina year, this would have probably been something to watch out for. Always prepare though, you never know. My guess is this will be an open wave by the time it makes it to the Caribbean.

I have to respectfully disagree Emmett. I'm sure you've heard the football expression "a game of inches". Well, thus far a couple of hurricanes have approached the Caribbean. One resulted in at least 20 deaths (in Dominica). Could have easily been more, or could have very easily caused a broader impact through other neighboring islands. What about Hurricane Danny? What if the upper level wind shear that decoupled Danny were perhaps a couple hundred miles further west and a Cat. 3 just happened to plow into Puerto Rico. Sure, there might had been little left of Danny to eventually impact the Conus but at least for the Eastern Caribbean, i think everyone (Ninel included) would have to admit that Grace and other potential storms this year, are absolutely "something to watch for". As was pointed out by another poster earlier today "all storms eventually die". What's relevant here is beyond whether a hurricane might make it all the way to impact some point of our own particular interest.

Yes, they do indeed all die, but will be the 4th in a row that couldnt survive in the MDR. Always alot of "what if's". What if we had the same conditions that existed in 96/99? We dont, and thats why no hurricanes west of 60 and the non major streak amazingly continues for another season.

[floridasun78]

i hope this don't bring hype as Erika to Florida could be call cry wolf two

[WPBWeather]

i hope this don't bring hype as Erika to Florida could be call cry wolf two

All in all, I'd rather hype than hurricane force winds, if I have to choose between those two.

[floridasun78]

i hope this don't bring hype as Erika to Florida could be call cry wolf two

All in all, I'd rather hype than hurricane force winds, if I have to choose between those two.

here in miami channel were doing hourly report too early when it likely hit shear wall and die out

[tolakram]

live loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

I do think it has a decent chance at hurricane status sooner than later.

[cycloneye]

Impressive view of GRACE from the ISS.

[YoshiMike]

Wow that looks impressive. Beautiful picture too

[YoshiMike]

Well impressive on like how fast it formed off of the coast of Africa I guess. Idk just looks impressive to me

[chaser1]

Impressive view of GRACE from the ISS.

Beautiful outflow depiction

[Gustywind]

Very impressive! Also nice banding well-defined curved bands over both the northern and southern portions of the circulation.

[Hammy]

Yes, they do indeed all die, but will be the 4th in a row that couldnt survive in the MDR.

I'm not sure what definition of MDR you're using but Grace has not dissipated yet, nor would it be the fourth in a row not to survive it, considering the actual MDR stops at 20N and Fred remained a TS to 22N, and here it is at 26N with advisories still being written.

[chaser1]

live loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

I do think it has a decent chance at hurricane status sooner than later.

Really nice loop. Wow..., just look at the umbilical cord from Grace, feed into the next system's inflow. Might this be... "next up"?

[OuterBanker]

Lacks convection, but probably the best looking symmetry of any storm yet. Impressed. Gfs still killing it around DR/Haiti. Euro still puzzling, still doesn't see Grace as far as I can tell. Crazy cousin entertaining as usual, but not close to reality. Fun to watch.

[terstorm1012]

Grace looks great from space. Very visually appealing storm. It will be interesting to see what happens to it over the next few days.

[gatorcane]

Latest image as the sun goes down with High Tower firing:

[ConvergenceZone]

Just curious, does anyone know if there have been storms in the past where the models never developed the storm, but it became a hurricane? I know there's probably nothing documented, but wondering if anyone has ever seen that before?

[pgoss11]

Grace looks impressive today. It's fun to track these storms of recent, especially since I thought there wouldn't be any storms at all to track in the MDR with El Nino in place. Even though the odds are against any storm making it all the way across..it's a bonus this El Nino year just to be able to track something.