ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

First appareance as a special feature now...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 15N17W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N17W TO 9N16W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 16W-21W INCLUDING THE
COAST OF W AFRICA.

[Gustywind]

Watching System off of Africa

The Weather Channel

Posted: Sep 4 2015 05:47 AM EDT

Updated: Sep 4 2015 06:03 AM EDT

This time of year we watch for storms that come off of Africa for possible tropical development. Experts are giving Invest 91-L a good chance of development.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... -of-africa

[Nimbus]

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
the potential for some gradual development as it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

First visible satellite pictures show a fairly robust structure and it is nearing the peak of the hurricane season.
That far south it should stay attached to the ITCZ for a few days so moisture isn't going to be a problem.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles off the west coast
of Africa is expected to move south of the Cape Verde Islands
tonight and Saturday. This system continues to show signs of
organization and has the potential for some development as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Gustywind]

Newbie on SSD...
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/1200 UTC 11.3N 19.5W T1.0/1.0 91L

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015


TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG
17W/18W FROM 8N-17N WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W 15-20 KT.

[wxman57]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

[LarryWx]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

The last couple of GFS runs fwiw suggest a greater chance of weakening to an open wave rather than recurvature and making it to the western basin in that weakened form. This has potential to be a long trekker but with a good bit of that long trek quite possibly as a weakened open wave if these GFS runs are accurate.

[emeraldislenc]

In a normal year it would have probably developed and been a player it looked so impressive moving off the coast of Africa. But we all know this is not a normal year guess we should strike up the song"Another one bites the dust." Does anyone think a Cape Verde storm will track across the Atlantic this year?

[gatorcane]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

Wxman57 if it makes it to the Caribbean, it would be around 200+ hours from now according to the models. How can you we be so sure what conditions will be like then?

That said, the likely scenario would be a continuation of the hostile conditions we have seen so far this season but it is no guarantee.

[ConvergenceZone]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

Of course it will be lol........I'm already sick of 2015. Let's just bring on 2016 and be done with this year already, so we can get rid of the El Nino and be back to normal.................

[LarryWx]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

Wxman57 if it makes it to the Caribbean, it would be around 200+ hours from now according to the models. How can you we be so sure what conditions will be like then?

That said, the likely scenario would be a continuation of the hostile conditions we have seen so far this season but it is no guarantee.

Actually, I'm myself wondering about how conditions will be in the Gulf and/or Caribbean as we get late this month due to 3 ENSO analog seasons I discussed with NDG last night. But recent runs at least suggest little let up in overall shear for at least 7-10 days fwiw. After that, the GFS hints at lowered shear in the E Caribbean but likely after 91L gets past the area. That reduction in shear remains to be seen, regardless.

[galaxy401]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

Of course it will be lol........I'm already sick of 2015. Let's just bring on 2016 and be done with this year already, so we can get rid of the El Nino and be back to normal.................

Come on, at least wait until the peak is over before we do the "season cancel' posts.

I doubt this storm will even make the Caribbean as it'll likely curve before that.

[WPBWeather]

'Death zone??' sounds like a Star Wars ad

[AutoPenalti]

Is that Dry air starting to filter into 91L?

[Weatherlover12]

All I have to say is that I would follow the storm up to 3 days then after that.. We watch and see what happens.
But after Erika.. I am more skeptical then ever before.

[hurricaneCW]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

So basically we should already stick a fork in this and hopefully the rest of this pitiful season.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved image:

[wxman57]

The Caribbean Sea will be a "death zone" if it ever makes it that far. Models indicating strong westerly winds aloft all across the Caribbean next week and beyond. Even more hostile than it was when Danny & Erika were destroyed there. Could be another "Fred" but it may get a bit farther west before recurving (or dissipating).

Wxman57 if it makes it to the Caribbean, it would be around 200+ hours from now according to the models. How can you we be so sure what conditions will be like then?

That said, the likely scenario would be a continuation of the hostile conditions we have seen so far this season but it is no guarantee.

The Caribbean has been a death zone since last spring. There are no signs of a change. With El Nino continuing to strengthen, I would not expect the shear to diminish in the Caribbean. Models indicate quite a bit of shear for the next 2 weeks, even stronger than it is now.

[cycloneye]

As I said earlier,it looks like repeat of a Danny/Erika type system that develops for a few days but as it gets closer to the islands it fades.Hopefully it mantains to bring more rain than what the mentioned TC's brought to aliviate even more the drought the islands are going thru.