ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

[blp]

I have learned this is not a great year to hug the models. Lets take it day by day and see what happens. Lets first check to see if it gets stacked right.

[cycloneye]

I have learned this is not a great year to hug the models. Lets take it day by day and see what happens. Lets first check to see if it gets stacked right.

+100

[CaliforniaResident]

I have learned this is not a great year to hug the models. Lets take it day by day and see what happens. Lets first check to see if it gets stacked right.

+100

+1000. What Danny, Erika, and Fred taught us: El Nino is making the Atlantic far more of a wild card than usual. It could peak in the most unexpected places, far overperform, far underperform, etc. I'm going to guess that it WILL definitely make it to TS, hence upping the "count" for the season. However, will it be a "memorable" storm? Odds are "no."

[Gustywind]

I have learned this is not a great year to hug the models. Lets take it day by day and see what happens. Lets first check to see if it gets stacked right.

+100

+1000. What Danny, Erika, and Fred taught us: El Nino is making the Atlantic far more of a wild card than usual. It could peak in the most unexpected places, far overperform, far underperform, etc. I'm going to guess that it WILL definitely make it to TS, hence upping the "count" for the season. However, will it be a "memorable" storm? Odds are "no."

+10000 i advice everybody to be vigilant, don't let your GUARD DOWN.

[fci]

i advice everybody to be vigilant, don't let your GUARD DOWN.

Boy, that is especially true for those in The Lesser Antilles exhibited by the flooding from Erika.
Sometimes those of us in the CONUS talk "season cancel" and "boring" which might be the case for some but not all.
Good luck Gusty and all of our Island Friends!!

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to see if FRED that is again a Tropical Storm affects the track of this system.

[TheStormExpert]

2am TWO.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape
Verde Islands. This system is gradually becoming better
organized and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2015


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
CHANCE FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH...AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD
15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN A
FEW CLUSTERS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W.

[Gustywind]

Invest 91-L: Tropical Wave Should Become the Next Atlantic Named Storm

By Quincy Vagell

Published Sep 5 2015 05:32 AM EDT

weather.com

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... 5-atlantic

•A tropical wave, designated Invest 91-L, is being monitored in the far eastern Atlantic for possible development into a tropical depression or storm.
•This could occur anytime over the next five days.
•This disturbance is moving west at 15-20 mph and, unlike Fred, is remaining south of the Republic of Cabo Verde.
•It remains far too soon to determine if this system will survive the long journey to the Lesser Antilles, or succumb to dry air and/or wind shear lying ahead.
•The next named storm in the Atlantic basin is "Grace". In an average year, the seventh Atlantic named storm forms by September 16.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%-90%

Satellite images and ship observations this morning indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming about 200 miles south of the
Cape Verde Islands. If this trend continues, advisories would be
initiated later today. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for additional development, at least for the next two or
three days, while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2015

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. THIS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
CHANCE FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH...AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD
15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W.

[toad strangler]

There is always a chance a system will "thread the needle" so to speak through horrible conditions and strike somewhere or fish stronger than expected. This is high octane El Nino year and the kind of year that you would need a "thread the needle" scenario.

[wxman57]

There is still very little model support for this system. Moderately hostile conditions in its path for the next few days become very hostile in 5-6 days. I don't think it has much chance of surviving as a TS to reach the Caribbean. However, as Erika has shown, it doesn't take a well-organized major hurricane to produce heavy rainfall. Even a tropical disturbance can produce deadly flooding.

[andyis]

Can someone post a floater of 91L please?

[beoumont]

IC1 enhancement:

[andyis]

Can someone post a floater loop of 91L please?

[tolakram]

RAMMB Floater

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=20

source: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

[Gustywind]

Looks like Grace could be there...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1145 UTC 12.3N 24.6W T2.5/2.5 91L

[northjaxpro]

91L may develop into Grace prior to 50 degrees longitude. Beyond that point, not much hope for survival with plenty of hostile conditions just waiting to destroy 91L. But, as I echo wxman57's sentiment that the islands need to watch this wave can trigger devastating flooding, so it doesn't matter if this if it is an designated tropical cyclone or not should it reach the islands.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the
disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better
organized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is
not very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a
good circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a
mid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were
available at the time of this advisory.

The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global
models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt
any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will
weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered
north of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of
a general westward track for the next 3 days. After that time,
the ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn
more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed.
This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not
acknowledge the existence of a cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila