ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#221 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:46 pm

Checkin out this water vapor loop...you can see Grace mixing out the dry air. Grace appears to be in an improved thermodynamic environment. It may be able to score at least another 24 hours of ace. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#222 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:59 am

The Atlantic continues to be Graced with continued convection.....
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#223 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:19 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

...GRACE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 41.0W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Brown
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#224 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 5:51 am

Grace recap...

08/0545 UTC 14.0N 39.4W T1.0/2.0 GRACE
07/2345 UTC 13.9N 38.4W T1.0/2.0 GRACE
07/1745 UTC 14.1N 36.7W T2.0/3.0 GRACE
07/1145 UTC 13.8N 35.0W T2.5/3.0 GRACE
07/0545 UTC 13.4N 33.2W T3.0/3.0 GRACE
06/2345 UTC 13.2N 31.8W T3.0/3.0 GRACE
06/1745 UTC 13.2N 30.5W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
06/1145 UTC 12.7N 29.3W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
06/0545 UTC 12.6N 28.0W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
05/2345 UTC 12.6N 26.7W T2.5/2.5 GRACE
05/1745 UTC 12.4N 25.8W T2.5/2.5 07L
05/1145 UTC 12.3N 24.6W T2.5/2.5 91L
05/0545 UTC 11.6N 22.8W T1.5/1.5 91L
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#225 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:48 am

An ASCAT pass at 00Z indicated sub-TS winds for Grace. It has likely been a depression overnight. Nothing to indicate it's a TS this morning. There may not be much left of grace by the time it reaches the NE Caribbean.
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#226 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:55 am

This may be the best example yet of what happens during an El Nino season.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#227 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

After the overnight burst of deep convection, thunderstorm activity
has diminished and the overall cloud pattern remains disorganized.
Data from a recent ASCAT overpass show that Grace's maximum winds
have decreased to near 30 kt, so the system is being downgraded to
a tropical depression on this advisory. The cyclone is forecast
to move through an environment of increasing vertical shear and dry
mid-level air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors
should cause the system to weaken further, and to degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area over the next day or two. The
official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is
slightly below the latest intensity model consensus. It is
possible that Grace could open up into a wave during the next few
days, as indicated by the global models.

The cyclone continues to move westward at a fairly rapid pace, with
the motion estimate remaining at 275/17 kt. The steering pattern
is expected to remain uncomplicated. Grace or its remnant should
continue to move west or slightly north of west, to the south of
a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge throughout the forecast
period. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.3N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 14.8N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 15.3N 52.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 16.6N 62.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#228 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:13 am

She had some really good convection towards the center overnight but again this morning got blown off by shear

Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#229 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 08, 2015 11:24 am

Probably what it will do up until it Danny's.



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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#230 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:27 pm

Re-burst right on time.


Obviously doing big fluxes between dry air and recovery.
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#231 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:46 pm

Saved loop, showing another impressive burst with extremely cold cloud tops, notice the little area of black color showing within the red (high tower). Shear seems to have slackened some at least for now allowing the convection to stay close to the LLC:

Image
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#232 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:58 pm

ASCAT shows this is barely closed at the moment and will probably open up to a wave with the next convective collapse.
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#233 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:22 pm

Pretty strong vorticity still though, doesn't resemble a wave yet:

Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#234 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:26 pm

A decent flare up!
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#235 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:29 pm

Grace says: "I'm not dead yet." LOL. But seems to be just a matter of time with this one, based on everything I'm reading/seeing.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#236 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:33 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

A new burst of deep convection has occurred over the southern
semicircle but, like the previous one, it lacks any banding
features. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is a blend
of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Grace could
continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next
day or two. However, it will be moving through an environment of
increasing vertical shear and dry mid-level air over the next
several days. This should cause weakening, and the system is likely
to become a remnant low in 36 hours if not sooner. There is also
the possibility of the cyclone opening up into a wave during the
forecast period, which is what the GFS and ECMWF models have been
depicting in their recent runs. The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus IVCN.

The initial motion continues westward, or 275/16 kt. No changes
are evident in the steering scenario for the next 3 days. A low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to provide a brisk
easterly steering current for Grace or its remnants. The
dynamical track guidance has been in very close agreement for the
past couple of days. The official forecast is close to the
dynamical model consensus and is basically and update of the
previous one.

The center of Grace should pass very near NOAA data buoy 41041 in a
couple of hours, which should provide useful data about the tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.5N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 16.8N 63.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#237 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 3:52 pm

Islanders don't let your guard down. I advice you to monitor carefully Grace.
We know what happened with a small TS Erika the last 15 days... so even if it's an sheared TD or an open sheared twave
... this could bring very nice amount of water.
So don't be focus on Grace sheared apparence, but let's see what could really happens with Grace in case of.
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Re:

#238 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:06 pm

Gustywind wrote:Islanders don't let your guard down. I advice you to monitor carefully Grace.
We know what happened with a small TS Erika the last 15 days... so even if it's an sheared TD or an open sheared twave
... this could bring very nice amount of water.
So don't be focus on Grace sheared apparence, but let's see what could really happens with Grace in case of.


Very good advice my friend.
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Re: Re:

#239 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Islanders don't let your guard down. I advice you to monitor carefully Grace.
We know what happened with a small TS Erika the last 15 days... so even if it's an sheared TD or an open sheared twave
... this could bring very nice amount of water.
So don't be focus on Grace sheared apparence, but let's see what could really happens with Grace in case of.


Very good advice my friend.

Cycloneye... is always our Superman el talento de nuestra carib :) casa! Bueno... i like this type of reply.

Be sure about that, the big mistake is there : let our guard down guy! As this season seems very unpredictable again again i advice all the carib islanders to continue to monitor very closely the situation. Those who live in the islands, you know really know what could happen! Please take care my friends and be vigilant Grace is not so far from the islands.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#240 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:08 pm

She is still alive.

As of 00:00 UTC Sep 09, 2015:


Location: 14.5°N 45.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
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