ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#241 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:38 pm

Increasing numbers for Grace...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/2345 UTC 14.2N 44.8W T2.0/2.0 GRACE
08/1745 UTC 14.3N 43.2W T1.5/1.5 GRACE
08/1145 UTC 14.5N 41.4W T1.0/1.0 GRACE
08/0545 UTC 14.0N 39.4W T1.0/2.0 GRACE
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#242 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:40 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

Grace continues to produce disorganized bursts of convection near
and south of the low-level center, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass
shows that the cyclone still has a closed circulation. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB, although the scatterometer data suggests this could be
a little generous. The cyclone is likely to produce intermittent
bursts of convection over the next day or two. However, it is
moving through an environment of dry mid-level air and westerly
vertical shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt by 72
hours - a combination that should cause further weakening. The new
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, calling
for Grace to become a remnant low in about 36 hours and to dissipate
completely after 72 hours. There is a possibility, supported by most
of the global models, that Grace could degenerate into an open wave
before 72 hours.

The initial motion remains 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge should continue to steer Grace or its remnants
quickly westward until the system dissipates. The new forecast
track is again an update of the previous track and lies near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 16.3N 58.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 17.0N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#243 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:39 pm

Image

Winds only 20-25kts, not sure why the 11pm wasn't lowered. Confirms the circulation is still closed though.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#244 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 08, 2015 11:46 pm

This thing is dead. Not even a proper wave.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#245 Postby emeraldislenc » Wed Sep 09, 2015 1:23 am

I don't think it is a wave yet.
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#246 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Sep 09, 2015 3:08 am

Really weak convective flare-up tonight. I think she's just about done for.
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#247 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:32 am

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/0545 UTC 14.6N 47.0W T2.0/2.0 GRACE
08/2345 UTC 14.2N 44.8W T2.0/2.0 GRACE
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#248 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:34 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

...GRACE CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 47.2W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#249 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:23 am

Bones says it's time to call it...

Time: 1312UTC, Sept. 9
Image
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#250 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:07 am

In my opinion, I think for anything to stand a chance this year it MUST form in either the Bahamas or the the Gulf of Mexico. If it forms anywhere else, it doesn't stand a chance.
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Re:

#251 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:22 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:In my opinion, I think for anything to stand a chance this year it MUST form in either the Bahamas or the the Gulf of Mexico. If it forms anywhere else, it doesn't stand a chance.

Even the Bahamas region and especially the GoM are unfavorable for development. Wind Shear is all over the basin everywhere you look! The only areas that might have some favorable conditions are in the MDR and portions of the Subtropical Atlantic, but even they are not the most favorable they can be.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#252 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:47 am

REMNANTS OF GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

Data from the Rapidscat instrument onboard the International Space
Station showed that there were no longer any westerly surface winds
in Grace. This was confirmed by animation of high-resolution
visible imagery that showed no westerly low-cloud motions. Since
Grace has opened up into a wave, this is the last advisory.

The wave should continue moving rapidly toward the west, and it
could produce some gusty winds and showers over portions of the
Lesser Antilles within a couple of days.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.5N 49.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Re:

#253 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:48 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:In my opinion, I think for anything to stand a chance this year it MUST form in either the Bahamas or the the Gulf of Mexico. If it forms anywhere else, it doesn't stand a chance.

Even the Bahamas region and especially the GoM are unfavorable for development. Wind Shear is all over the basin everywhere you look! The only areas that might have some favorable conditions are in the MDR and portions of the Subtropical Atlantic, but even they are not the most favorable they can be.


Yea, maybe you are right........Bring on 2016!!! In my opinion, it's going to be night and day between this year and next year, just watch :)
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#254 Postby emeraldislenc » Wed Sep 09, 2015 12:05 pm

Interesting thoughts about 2016.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#255 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:31 pm

This is dead for now but in about 5 days it may have a chance but it depends on the shear as it could be north of the big islands

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#256 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:07 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:This is dead for now but in about 5 days it may have a chance but it depends on the shear as it could be north of the big islands

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what big islands you saying Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico ?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#257 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:14 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:This is dead for now but in about 5 days it may have a chance but it depends on the shear as it could be north of the big islands

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what big islands you saying Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico ?


yes
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#258 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:36 pm

Not much in the way of pressure drop but it still seems to have a weak circulation.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040
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#259 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:40 am

The 0Z Thu Euro, like it did in prior runs, has the remnants of Grace making it to the central GOM on 9/17.
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#260 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:16 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 13N53W TO 18N51W MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. THE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF GRACE...CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14.5N52W PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS
AROUND 10/0024 UTC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...RANGING FROM 20-25
KT...WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
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