ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#261 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:12 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 12N54W TO 19N53W MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N54W...THE REMNANTS OF GRACE...REMAINS WEAK
WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 10/0024 UTC INDICATING THE
STRONGEST WINDS...RANGING FROM 20-25 KT...WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 52W-56W
.
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#262 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:56 pm

I'm still pulling for Luis and others to get good rains in the NE Caribbean from Grace's remnants. Whereas the 12Z Euro only has 0.5 to 0.75", the 12Z GFS has a nice 1-1.5".
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#263 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:53 pm

Typical convection response to the SST rise near the islands, even if meaningless.
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#264 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:18 pm

Any chance this thing finds better conditions down the road?
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#265 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:36 pm

Guadeloupe, Martinica and the Northern Leewards islands are Under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms due to Grace remnants.
:rarrow: http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#266 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:43 pm

I do hope we get some much needed rain but it looks to me like much of the convection will be going north of us. any opinions on that?
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#267 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:37 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Any chance this thing finds better conditions down the road?

Doesn't seem like it based on the models.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#268 Postby tailgater » Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:50 pm

:uarrow: Not meant towards you Auto.

I don't trust these models much anymore they seem untrustworthy to me. so keep an eye on her remnants.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#269 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:54 pm

msbee wrote:I do hope we get some much needed rain but it looks to me like much of the convection will be going north of us. any opinions on that?


Msbee,
Unfortunately, the GFS/Euro consensus doesn't give you heavy rain as they keep totals under 1" by your way. OTOH, Luis/E PR do better. Per the 0Z GFS, 1-2" fall, which is the wettest of at least the last four runs.
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#270 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:23 am

Well, the remnants of Grace seem to be kicking up a bit of a fuss at DMAX just NE of the Leewards. It will be interesting to follow these remnants over the next few days as they move WNW and then more NW into the Bahamas.

Edited to say what I meant, DMAX, not DMIN. It continues active convectionwise as noted in the 8 AM TWO below this post though shear looks strong being that the center of the vorticity is around the area just west of the northern Leewards. I'm assuming convection will temporarily quiet down some later during the daytime due to DMIN as it moves further west, but then regain convection tonight as it approaches PR and hopefully gives Luis and others much needed 1"+ rains. Plenty of shear (and land interaction ) will very likely prevent tropical redevelopment for a few days and probably for the rest of its existence as an entity, despite what the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) shows, as shear looks relentless for much of its projected path per the 6Z GFS.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Sep 11, 2015 7:20 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#271 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 11, 2015 6:56 am

8 AM TWO:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
northern Leeward Islands is associated with the remnants of Tropical
Storm Grace. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for
redevelopment of this system during the next several days. However,
heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for the next couple of days
while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#272 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 11, 2015 7:30 am

LarryWx wrote:
msbee wrote:I do hope we get some much needed rain but it looks to me like much of the convection will be going north of us. any opinions on that?


Msbee,
Unfortunately, the GFS/Euro consensus doesn't give you heavy rain as they keep totals under 1" by your way. OTOH, Luis/E PR do better. Per the 0Z GFS, 1-2" fall, which is the wettest of at least the last four runs.


Thanks.. We dd get one heavy shower in the middle of the night but it gave us under 1 inch. Today so far we have blue sunny skies.
There is an article in today's local paper about the severe drought affecting some of our ponds and our bird life.
very sad
http://www.thedailyherald.com/index.php ... &Itemid=54
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#273 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2015 7:41 am

Remnants of Grace this morning is nothing more than a sharp surface trough (the axis already west of the Islands) interacting with the UL trough, shear over it analyzed at 30-40 knots, ouch! Glad to see that it is bringing some rains to some parts of the Leeward Islands.
Both the GFS and Euro show the vorticity now tracking across the greater Antilles into the the GOM, but it will continue to encounter hostile UL conditions throughout its journey, this area is closed for tropical business :)
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#274 Postby Weatherlover12 » Fri Sep 11, 2015 8:14 am

NDG wrote:Remnants of Grace this morning is nothing more than a sharp surface trough (the axis already west of the Islands) interacting with the UL trough, shear over it analyzed at 30-40 knots, ouch! Glad to see that it is bringing some rains to some parts of the Leeward Islands.
Both the GFS and Euro show the vorticity now tracking across the greater Antilles into the the GOM, but it will continue to encounter hostile UL conditions throughout its journey, this area is closed for tropical business :)


I heard the Bahamas is favorable too?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#275 Postby WPBWeather » Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:10 am

NDG wrote:Remnants of Grace this morning is nothing more than a sharp surface trough (the axis already west of the Islands) interacting with the UL trough, shear over it analyzed at 30-40 knots, ouch! Glad to see that it is bringing some rains to some parts of the Leeward Islands.
Both the GFS and Euro show the vorticity now tracking across the greater Antilles into the the GOM, but it will continue to encounter hostile UL conditions throughout its journey, this area is closed for tropical business :)



My friend, nothing is closed for tropical business this early in the season.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#276 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:49 am

Any support for regeneration if it moves into the Bahamas?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#277 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:07 am

emeraldislenc wrote:Any support for regeneration if it moves into the Bahamas?


If you want to call the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) "support", then yes. I posted about this in the general models thread in Talkin' Tropics. Then again, the CU model almost always overdevelops things tropically. I'd give it only about a 10% chance of reforming into a TC either E of the SE CONUS or in the GOM as of now. So, not impossible by any means but highly unlikely as of now. Shear looks unyielding.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#278 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:48 am

NRL updated the position at 16.1N-62.3W. Drought buster for Puerto Rico and some of the islands? We hope so.

Image
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#279 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:54 am

Hope it can maintain the convection.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#280 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:39 am

If part of this can get North of the Greater Antilles than there looks to be lower shear north of Puerto Rico and in the Bahamas but it all depends on if wave Grace takes that path

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