ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#281 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:59 am

Strong tstorms are bombing :eek: hopefully isolated but i can tell you that an impressive lightning has highlited my head and a monster bang came close to my house! Be aware islanders safe and dry.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#282 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:22 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
NDG wrote:Remnants of Grace this morning is nothing more than a sharp surface trough (the axis already west of the Islands) interacting with the UL trough, shear over it analyzed at 30-40 knots, ouch! Glad to see that it is bringing some rains to some parts of the Leeward Islands.
Both the GFS and Euro show the vorticity now tracking across the greater Antilles into the the GOM, but it will continue to encounter hostile UL conditions throughout its journey, this area is closed for tropical business :)



My friend, nothing is closed for tropical business this early in the season.


Of course nothing is closed for tropical business this early but I do count on our part of the Atlantic Basin being closed, since late July :)
I just don't see any homegrown storms or any to come our way, even if it will come out way shear will destroy it. If we end up getting a homegrown storm it will quick and weak.
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Re:

#283 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:39 pm

Gustywind wrote:Strong tstorms are bombing :eek: hopefully isolated but i can tell you that an impressive lightning has highlited my head and a monster bang came close to my house! Be aware islanders safe and dry.


Gusty...you can always hide under the bed LOL
nothing here yet..
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Re: Re:

#284 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:15 pm

msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Strong tstorms are bombing :eek: hopefully isolated but i can tell you that an impressive lightning has highlited my head and a monster bang came close to my house! Be aware islanders safe and dry.


Gusty...you can always hide under the bed LOL
nothing here yet..

:lol: thanks.
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#285 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2015 8:01 pm

Quite an impressive convection burst just a little NE of the vorticity this evening. This is the closest the convection has been to low-level vorticity since the wave was a tropical storm.

Image

Better upper-level winds await (really not that far off to the west) if she manages to get north of Hispaniola. I am not sure why the NHC thinks the upper-level winds won't be favorable. They look decent to me.

Image

Image
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Re:

#286 Postby WPBWeather » Fri Sep 11, 2015 8:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:Quite an impressive convection burst just a little NE of the vorticity this evening. This is the closest the convection has been to low-level vorticity since the wave was a tropical storm.

Image

Better upper-level winds await (really not that far off to the west) if she manages to get north of Hispaniola. I am not sure why the NHC thinks the upper-level winds won't be favorable. They look decent to me.

Image

Image


Local S FL Mets say Grace remains will be here Tuesday.
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#287 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:25 pm

That's a huge burst. There's your drought buster....
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#288 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:31 pm

:uarrow: All you have to do is look at the radar from PR, that's nothing but high clouds over them, all of the heavy rains are passing to the south of the island, unfortunately.
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#289 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:49 pm

:uarrow: Bad news as the 0Z GFS is reflecting on the too far south heavy rain and is the driest of the last 4 runs
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#290 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:27 pm

Doh. :(
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#291 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:04 am

Good news :) Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards have back off the yellow alert related to Grace's remnants... :D
Here is a recap of this active twave ( ex TS Grace as a an active twave spreading on Guadeloupe).

:rarrow: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

Track No. 4 for Guadeloupe bulletin

Saturday, September 12, 2015 at 0559 AM

Episode n ° 6-GD

Ended event

Level of vigilance: return to green

Current situation: Our archipelago is now at the back of the wave tropical active (remnants of the old storm
tropical Grace).

This morning, potentially stormy showers may still reach Guadeloupe. However their impact will be less than precipitation of yesterday. Then a quieter time moved and the stormy risk fades.

Data observed during the episode:

-40 mm at Bellevue Pointe-Noire.

-Terre-de-Bas Les Saintes 51 mm

-Radar estimate: 80-100 mm on the east coast between the localities of le Moule and St-François.

-Very important electrical activity: many rumbles of thunder heard and lightning observed during the episode, a home
has been blasted at Chauvel Abymes (TV source from Guadeloupe 1ere)

See how strong a tstorm destroyed the electrical system in a house :rarrow: http://guadeloupe.la1ere.fr/emissions/j ... direct-ici
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#292 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:10 am

:uarrow:
I can tell you really that the convective activity was sometimes pretty intense :eek: . All the islanders in the path of this twave should be vigilant and aware! This thing is not a Gameboy so be on your guard....
Just speaking about that a robust line of showers is spreading on me, a strong gust is coming and the thunder is rumbling nicely.
I will keep you informed if i've more... but don't forget what i say...
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#293 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:47 am

JB is so right, this is 2002 all over again. Lol, j/k

Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#294 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:39 am

Poof
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#295 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:56 am

Yeah the remnants are directly under a ULL right now , she might flare up again in Fla. straits or southern GOM
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#296 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 12, 2015 12:16 pm

Unlike the two Fri CMC runs, which somehow brought a H to a portion of the US e coast, today's 2 CMC runs are bringing at least some of Grace's remnant energy into the GOM:

The 0Z develops a 1000 mb TS that hits LA on 9/21. It appears to split off a piece that becomes a 1001 TS that hits near GA/SC line 9/18. I'm not sure how much that GA/SC low is derived from Grace.

The 12Z takes the bulk of the remnants and develops a TD that stays out in the S GOM. Another piece of energy forms a weak low off the SE coast that goes into the GA/SC line area 9/18-9. This piece looks to me like it may be unrelated to Grace and maybe ST.
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#297 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 12, 2015 12:18 pm

Unlike the two Fri CMC runs, which somehow brought a H to a portion of the US e coast, today's 2 CMC runs are bringing at least some of Grace's remnant energy into the GOM:

The 0Z develops a 1000 mb TS that hits LA on 9/21. It appears to split off a piece that becomes a 1001 TS that hits near GA/SC line 9/18.

The 12Z takes the bulk of the remnants and develops a TD that stays out in the S GOM. Another piece of energy forms a weak low off the SE coast that goes into the GA/SC line area 9/18-9. This piece looks to me like it may be unrelated to Grace and maybe ST.

None of this is likely to occur in detail but I will regardless become more interested in the GOM as we head later in Sep., esp. 9/20+, based on several 2nd year strong+ Nino analogs that suggest that the NE GOM coast may become interesting then into the first half of Oct for a possible H hit.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#298 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2015 2:20 pm

:uarrow: you are not giving up, aren't you? ;)
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#299 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 12, 2015 2:31 pm

NDG wrote::uarrow: you are not giving up, aren't you? ;)


Well, since we haven't yet reached that period, I don't feel I should give up yet. ;) Also, the end of that period is still about a month out, which is an eternity during a climo still active period while there is a change of seasons further north, which tends to shuffle the atmospheric setup quite a bit and make things more favorable for genesis in parts of the western basin than earlier. Furthermore, note that much of the western basin is solidly warmer than normal fwiw.
By the way, I haven't forgotten your posts addressing those analogs. I'm not ignoring what you said, but I still don't see enough reason to give up just before we even reach the start of the period I've been focused on since early August.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Renmants - Discussion

#300 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:21 am

I'm going to continue to watch the Grace remnants, which are now near Haiti and moving WNW. Whereas the GFS/Euro still do little with them, the CMC continues to develop very weak low pressure in the Gulf ~9/17 and keep it out there through 9/22.
The model also continues to send another piece of energy toward the GA/SC area ~9/16-8 though it now doesn't develop it into a closed sfc low. This seems to be mainly related to the frontal moisture moving back north possibly along with some interaction from some of the Grace remnants.
The 12Z JMA develops a weak low in the Gulf from the Grace remnants. The 18Z NAVGEM only develops very weak low pressure in the E GOM/FL region.
I continue to give it only a 10% chance for the Grace remnants to lead to a TC forming either in the GOM or off the SE CONUS coast sometime this week though it really is probably the only potential game in town for the CONUS for the next 10 days or so. So, the CONUS is looking void of any threats for the next 10+ days imo with the exception of the very small chance that something directly or indirectly related to Grace's remnants and/or that front now moving offshore the SE threatens.
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