ATL: GRACE - Models

[chaser1]

The latest Euro (12Z) again has Grace opening by 50W.

Looks like the remnant vorticity does track right on into S. Florida and up the E. Gulf. Then, at 168 hr., looks like an attempt to develop another wave briefly before then turning northward into.... a building ridge?? Further out, yet another potentially developing further east too. Just as another poster just mentioned, there's no doubt though that the EURO seems to generally be building the overall ridging clear across and into the W. Atlantic with time.

[chaser1]

Yikes...., 216hr EURO 500mb shows a pattern that those in the Bahamas, Florida, and N. Gulf might NOT want to see - especially in a year of storms tracking between westward between 15N and 20N (linked here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=644.8 ). If that verifies, there'll be a lot of "non weather enthusiast folks" truly hoping that El Nino does what we'd all expect it to do (increased upper shear).

[LarryWx]

The latest Euro (12Z) again has Grace opening by 50W.

Looks like the remnant vorticity does track right on into S. Florida and up the E. Gulf. Then, at 168 hr., looks like an attempt to develop another wave briefly before then turning northward into.... a building ridge?? Further out, yet another potentially developing further east too. Just as another poster just mentioned, there's no doubt though that the EURO seems to generally be building the overall ridging clear across and into the W. Atlantic with time.

Yes, indeed, it appears that the remnant moisture/vorticity runs into S FL while moving NW on 9/15 (216 hours).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think it'll have a hard time surviving the Caribbean Death Zone. Grace's only hope is heading north of the Islands.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

:eek: Yikes...., 216hr EURO 500mb shows a pattern that those in the Bahamas, Florida, and N. Gulf might NOT want to see - especially in a year of storms tracking between westward between 15N and 20N (linked here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=644.8 ). If that verifies, there'll be a lot of "non weather enthusiast folks" truly hoping that El Nino does what we'd all expect it to do (increased upper shear).

Luckily there doesn't look to be anything to take advantage of that pattern.

[cycloneye]

Tight consensus.

[gatorcane]

:eek: Yikes...., 216hr EURO 500mb shows a pattern that those in the Bahamas, Florida, and N. Gulf might NOT want to see - especially in a year of storms tracking between westward between 15N and 20N (linked here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=644.8 ). If that verifies, there'll be a lot of "non weather enthusiast folks" truly hoping that El Nino does what we'd all expect it to do (increased upper shear).

Yes and the CMC model shows a similar upper-air pattern, but does develop Grace north of the Caribbean, where it sends it NW then bends it W where it gets under that ridge and becomes a hurricane into the Northern Bahamas and FL peninsula.

Take a look at that 500MB ridge just off the SE United States coast as depicted by the 12Z ECMWF, in the long-range:

[jlauderdal]

The latest Euro (12Z) again has Grace opening by 50W.

Looks like the remnant vorticity does track right on into S. Florida and up the E. Gulf. Then, at 168 hr., looks like an attempt to develop another wave briefly before then turning northward into.... a building ridge?? Further out, yet another potentially developing further east too. Just as another poster just mentioned, there's no doubt though that the EURO seems to generally be building the overall ridging clear across and into the W. Atlantic with time.

el nino year...models can bring whatever they want into our area..no worries unless it shows something significant at 72 hours or less..not to so sound caviler about it but we have seen the setup this year with danny and erika and this has been advertised since spring...very surprised we have seen the development we have so far but nonetheless its all been crushed and no reason to think it wont continue..maybe october something from the west comes into florida but anything coming from the east will have an extremely tough time in these hostile conditions..had some big storms around central and sofla the last few days..saw some towering cumulus in orlando yesterday afternoon and 50+ winds in sofla this afternoon...i suspect those 50+ winds are higher than anything tropical we see this year

[gatorcane]

The 12Z United Kingdom Meteorology model (UKMET) maintains Erika's strength on a general W to WNW track, 132 hour position below. It is not fizzling Grace through 132 hours.

The UKMET is regarded as a good tropical model so its forecasts on Grace bear watching.

[WeatherEmperor]

Tight consensus.

Luis, can you post the 18z intensity guidance? Track guidance does look like a good consensus


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[gatorcane]

18Z Intensity Guidance:

[northjaxpro]

I think it'll have a hard time surviving the Caribbean Death Zone. Grace's only hope is heading north of the Islands.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Same ole'song... I agree. The only hope Grace has for survival past 50W is moving north of the NE Caribbean, moving away from the hostile conditions.

[Steve H.]

yeah, that ridge keeps shoving her head down and to the west. We'll have to see what the next few days bring!

[gatorcane]

00Z Guidance, intensity consensus (IVCN) is up at the end:

[cycloneye]

I wonder why some models have an uptick in intensity contrary to SHIP that goes down.

[gatorcane]

Not sure - the NAVGEM (NVGI) isn't the greatest tropical model which is sharply intensifying it now and probably biasing the IVCN but I notice the UKMET (not shown) also shows Grace strengthening some between hours 120 and 144 as it passes just near the northern Leewards and that is a good tropical model.

12Z UKMET below, a 1008MB low at bottom of screen:

[blp]

18Z Intensity Guidance:

Well some of the 00z intensity models jumped up including the IVCN which NHC uses. Just when it is looking worse. Go figure..



EDIT: Sorry I duplicate post saw the post above.

[LarryWx]

As of 0Z 9/15 (192 hours) fwiw, the 0Z Euro has the Grace remnant moisture/vorticity in the NW Bahamas moving NW. At 216 hrs, those remnants are over the FL pen and at 240 hrs (9/17 0Z) they are inland in the SE US. Based on a good number of runs, it does appear that the 9/15-16 period could very well be an interesting period for FL/SE CONUS, especially if it were to turn out that there is more to Grace then than what non-CMC model consensus has been showing. Recurvature E of the CONUS of what is there at the time is far from certain and doesn't currently look likely.

[gatorcane]

12Z Guidance. Several models show it reintensifying starting around hour 84.

[FlaStormFanatic]

Looks like the shear wall will win again? Wish we could get one long tracker that would survive the shear