ATL: GRACE - Models

[gatorcane]

00Z Guidance:

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL912015  09/05/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    33    37    45    51    56    60    61    61    60    61
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    33    37    45    51    56    60    61    61    60    61
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    32    38    45    51    54    55    54    52    50
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10     9     6     4     5     1     8     9    12    13    18    18    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     8     5     5     8     8    10     6     4     7     8     6     9     5
SHEAR DIR         58    57    45    21    32   157   252   241   246   259   242   238   208
SST (C)         28.3  28.3  28.3  28.3  28.4  28.4  28.0  27.7  27.7  27.9  27.8  27.6  27.7
POT. INT. (KT)   142   143   142   142   144   143   138   134   134   136   134   131   133
ADJ. POT. INT.   146   146   145   144   146   144   139   134   132   134   131   127   129
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     8     8     8     9     9    10    10    11    11    11
700-500 MB RH     65    67    68    68    67    62    62    57    54    50    49    47    45
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    11    13    13    12    12    12    13    13    13    12    11    11
850 MB ENV VOR     9     9    21    30    35    42    35    31    30    22    24    20    20
200 MB DIV        44    43    36    31    22    11    11     0    10     5    28    -3    -4
700-850 TADV      -5    -4    -7   -10   -11    -7    -6    -9   -11   -11    -2    -1    -4
LAND (KM)        589   740   885  1011  1142  1407  1691  1947  1734  1539  1392  1260  1126
LAT (DEG N)     11.1  11.4  11.6  11.9  12.1  12.4  12.6  12.8  13.2  13.4  13.6  13.7  13.6
LONG(DEG W)     22.1  23.6  25.0  26.3  27.7  30.3  33.0  35.8  38.4  40.9  43.1  45.2  47.1
STM SPEED (KT)    14    14    13    13    13    13    14    13    12    12    10    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      12    13     9     7     7    10    15    21    18    11    16    26    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  532  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  56.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  11.  18.  23.  27.  30.  32.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   5.   8.  10.  11.  11.  10.   9.   7.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   4.   3.   0.  -2.  -4.  -7.  -9.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   8.  12.  20.  26.  31.  35.  36.  36.  35.  36.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST     09/05/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.7 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.2 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 120.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   9.6 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  35.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST     09/05/2015  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY

[chaser1]

I'm guessing we'll see 91L reach T.S. intensity, but long range 200mb really look as if another named storm might be purely academic for the time being. Upper air looks to be getting much more volatile. Then again..... I'm basing that, on the fantastic reliability of this years' globals, lol.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thing is though they have been reliable in showing all the unfavorable conditions and the demise of systems. Just having a hard time with intensity, but that's pretty much every year. If most models are showing another short lived system get ripped to shreds in a few days its hard to go against them.

[WPBWeather]

I'm guessing we'll see 91L reach T.S. intensity, but long range 200mb really look as if another named storm might be purely academic for the time being. Upper air looks to be getting much more volatile. Then again..... I'm basing that, on the fantastic reliability of this years' globals, lol.

Good point. This is something we need to watch.

[Hammy]

Thing is though they have been reliable in showing all the unfavorable conditions and the demise of systems. Just having a hard time with intensity, but that's pretty much every year. If most models are showing another short lived system get ripped to shreds in a few days its hard to go against them.

They've been just as bad showing dissipation as intensification, remember the same models that failed to show Fred maintaining/strengthening occasionally were the same ones that utterly failed to foresee Erika dissipating until a day or so beforehand.

The models are just doing awful all the way around this year.

[blp]

00z GFS further south and looks like it has become larger. I think the Euro is going to come back on board holding it longer. I have noticied the trend past year where the GFS picks up on the system first then Euro sees it and then GFS looses it when it is developing. Lets see if it repeats again.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Crazy Uncle is similar with a 1004 low beginning to recurve just NE of the Bahamas day 10. That is strongest of the 10 days.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=426

[cycloneye]

It looks like it will move NE of the Leewards.

12z Guidance.

[crownweather]

Remember, with Erika the models all were too far north/east of the actual track of the storm.

[CourierPR]

:uarrow:

Remember, with Erika the models all were too far north/east of the actual track of the storm.

Exactly. Let's wait and see what happens in the next few days.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS coming in is no longer killing off TD 7 and is showing some strengthening once north of Puerto Rico in the long-range.

240 hours below:

[blp]

Looks like trough is lifting out as well. Interesting...

[gatorcane]

The run ends with a hurricane recurving between the US and Bermuda but way out in the long-range where the steering would be difficult to predict right now.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like trough is lifting out as well. Interesting...

So.. fish?

[crownweather]

Hmmm....seems similar to last night's CMC model which kept TD7/Grace weak until the Bahamas - of course, this all sounds very familiar & I feel like I've been led down this road before.

[blp]

Hmmm....seems similar to last night's CMC model which kept TD7/Grace weak until the Bahamas - of course, this all sounds very familiar & I feel like I've been led down this road before.

Yea no kidding. Not buying anything the models are putting out right now.

[Alyono]

12Z MU has a massive cane hitting Newfoundland in the very long range. It's this system

[Alyono]

and the CMC forgot to initialize the depression entirely...

[tolakram]

The 1007MB low near the Bahamas is Seven on the 12Z GFS run. Riiiight.