EPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#101 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:00 pm

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015

Linda still has an impressive satellite presentation, and appears
to have peaked shortly after the last advisory was issued. A
distinct eye in infrared imagery is surrounded by a CDO with cloud
top temperatures of -70 to -80C. The initial intensity is set to
110 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimate of T5.5/102 kt
from SAB and T6.0/115 kt from TAFB. The 34-kt wind radii were
adjusted outward based on an ASCAT-B pass around 1700 UTC.

Linda will be crossing the 27C SST isotherm soon, and the cyclone
should begin to slowly weaken. Rapid weakening is expected between
24 and 48 hours as the cyclone moves over much cooler SSTs and into
a stable, dry environment. Remnant low status is forecast by 72
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is close to the latest intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12, as Linda has wobbled a bit
to the left of the previous track. The overall track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, as a weakening Linda should move
northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge centered
over Mexico. The remnant low is then forecast to turn west-
northwestward and westward by the end of the period as it is steered
by the low-level flow. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to
account for the initial motion through 36 hours, and is largely an
update of the previous NHC track after that time. The NHC forecast
continues to lie on the left side of the guidance envelope, between
the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 21.9N 114.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.6N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 26.5N 119.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 27.4N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 27.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 27.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#102 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:22 pm

With the discussion in the latest advisory, I wonder if Linda will be upgraded to a category 4 postseason or not.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re:

#103 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 08, 2015 4:41 pm

galaxy401 wrote:With the discussion in the latest advisory, I wonder if Linda will be upgraded to a category 4 postseason or not.


Ryan Maue tweeted this, I'd like to hear thoughts as well. Though the eye earlier was ragged the convection was very intense.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 46m46 minutes ago
While NHC raised Hurricane Linda to 110-knots -- it actually peaked about 6-hours ago. I'd expect post-season upgrade to 115-knots, Cat 4.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#104 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:33 pm

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015

Cloud tops within Linda's CDO feature have warmed significantly
since the previous advisory, likely due to the erosion of eyewall
convection in the northern semicircle caused by the entrainment
of dry mid-level air as noted in recent microwave satellite
imagery. Although the 15 n mi diameter eye remains quite distinct,
satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply. The initial
intensity of 100 kt is based on an average of Dvorak satellite
T-numbers and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is now 325/11 kt. The track and forecast
reasoning remain unchanged. The NHC model guidance is in very good
agreement on Linda moving northwestward for the next 48 hours,
followed by a turn to the west-northwest by 72 hours. After that
time, the model tracks are widely divergent based on the intensity
and resultant vertical depth of the cyclone on days 4 and 5. The
ECMWF takes a weak remnant low due west, whereas the stronger GFS
and HWRF models take Linda more poleward. The official forecast at
96 and 120 hours is a compromise of these extremes and lies close
to the TCVE and GFEX consensus model tracks.

Linda will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and over upper-ocean-heat-
content (UOHC) values of near zero about 12 hours, while the
hurricane is slowing down to less than 10 kt of forward speed. This
should result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone and
induce a rapid weakening phase. As result, Linda is expected to
weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday morning, a depression by
Thursday night, and a remnant low on Friday. The official intensity
forecast follows the downward trend of the previous forecast and the
IVCN intensity consensus model.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. In
addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected
to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. by day 2
and beyond, which could help trigger locally heavy rainfall. For
additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 22.7N 115.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 23.7N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 25.0N 117.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 26.1N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.6N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 27.8N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 27.6N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
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#105 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 09, 2015 12:46 am

Image

It's actually pretty impressive how rapidly Linda is dying off tonight in the face of increasingly hostile conditions. Core is definitely opening up - the entire northeast section is basically eroded away, with a good bit of dry air to match the increasingly cool waters. Given this rate of decay, I would not be at all shocked to see the official forecast of death by 72 hours come true.

Short-lived but impressive hurricane. Glad I've been watching this basin more closely for the last few years, cuz I would've totally missed quick storms like this.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re:

#106 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 09, 2015 7:58 am

EquusStorm wrote:
It's actually pretty impressive how rapidly Linda is dying off tonight in the face of increasingly hostile conditions. Core is definitely opening up - the entire northeast section is basically eroded away, with a good bit of dry air to match the increasingly cool waters. Given this rate of decay, I would not be at all shocked to see the official forecast of death by 72 hours come true.

Short-lived but impressive hurricane. Glad I've been watching this basin more closely for the last few years, cuz I would've totally missed quick storms like this.


Pretty typical of storms that move over the EPAC SST gradient. They decay very quick in location's similar to Linda as the SST's go from 28C to 23C in a short time frame, hence disrupting the inner core.
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#107 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 09, 2015 7:59 am

9z adv:


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090839
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Linda's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate overnight, with
the eye becoming much less distinct and the surrounding cloud tops
have warmed. The latest microwave imagery also shows that the
northeastern portion of the eye has eroded. The initial wind speed
has been lowered to 85 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Linda will be moving
over SSTs below 26C and into a drier and more stable air mass
today. This should result in rapid weakening and Linda is forecast
to become a tropical storm within 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant
low in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
SHIPS guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus.

Linda is moving northwestward or 325/10 kt. The cyclone is expected
to continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward
speed over the next couple of days. After that time, the more
shallow cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, and then
westward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula. The
official track forecast lies between the GFS, which takes a stronger
Linda more northward, and the ECMWF model that moves a weaker Linda
more westward.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central
portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula.
These swells are expected to spread northward into southern
California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and
upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions
of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could
trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please
consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and
your local weather forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 23.2N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.2N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 26.3N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 26.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 27.5N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 27.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#108 Postby supercane » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:46 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 091438
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Deep convection continues to diminish in association with Linda,
with only a small area of cold cloud tops near and west of the
center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on a
blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.
Further rapid weakening is expected as Linda moves over cooler SSTs
and into a dry, stable air mass. Linda should become a remnant low
by 48 hours, or even a bit sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 325/11. Linda should continue moving
northwestward for the next 36 hours and then turn gradually more
westward as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the
low-level flow. By the end of the period, a motion toward the
southwest or south-southwest is possible. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one but has been adjusted a bit to the
right and faster to account for the initial position and motion and
the latest trends in the guidance. The NHC forecast is generally
close to or a little to the right of the ECMWF through much of the
forecast period.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central
portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula.
These swells are expected to reach the Pacific coast of the northern
Baja California peninsula today and reach southern California by
Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture
is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern
U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy
rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued
by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast
office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 09, 2015 3:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Linda continues to weaken, with the remaining deep convection
becoming displaced from the low-level center due to southerly shear.
The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening
is forecast due to cool waters and a dry, stable air mass along the
track of Linda. Linda is forecast to weaken to a depression by 24
hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is 325/09, and microwave imagery
suggests that the surface center of Linda is a little behind
previous estimates as it begins to separate from the convection.
Linda is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 24 to 36
hours. Then the remnant low of Linda should gradually turn westward
and then southward in the low-level flow before dissipating in about
5 days. The new NHC track is along the previous one, but is a bit
slower given the initial position and motion through 48 hours. After
that time, a slower motion and faster southward turn is shown before
dissipation, in agreement with the latest trends in the track
guidance.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach
southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid-
and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into
portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which
could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information,
please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 26.4N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 27.3N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 27.6N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z 27.0N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Linda's weakening trend continues. Most of the convection with cloud
tops of -45 to -55 deg C has now been displaced primarily into the
northern quadrant deep due to moderate southerly vertical wind
shear. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a consensus Dvorak
CI-number of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. The NHC model guidance
remains in fairy good agreement on Linda moving northwestward around
the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 36
hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and west after that as the cyclone weakens into a shallow remnant
low and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The official
forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the guidance
envelope near the consensus model, TCVE.

A comparison of low-level positions from microwave imagery with the
visible and infrared location of the upper-level circulation clearly
indicates that the surface and upper-level circulations continue to
decouple. Linda is currently crossing the 24 deg C SST isotherm and
is headed for 23 C water, so additional weakening is forecast as
convection continues to wane due to rapidly worsening thermodynamic
conditions. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression within
the next 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not
sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach
southern California on Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid-
and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into
portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which
could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information,
please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 25.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.6N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 27.1N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 27.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 27.4N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#111 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:02 pm

Like expected, quick demise.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

#112 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2015 3:36 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2015

Linda is now a swirl of low clouds that has been devoid of deep
convection for more than 12 hours. Based on the lack of convection,
Linda is now a post-tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC
advisory. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a blend of
the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The circulation of Linda
should gradually spin down over the next 2 to 3 days until the
cyclone dissipates.

The initial motion estimate remains 320/06. The remnant low should
gradually turn toward the west-northwest and then toward the west
over the next 2 days as the low becomes steered by the low-level
flow. A turn to the south of due west is shown at 72 hours. The new
NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one
based on the latest trends in the track guidance.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula and southern California. These swells could
continue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid-
and upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the
southwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For
additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 26.4N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z 27.4N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 27.7N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 27.8N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1800Z 27.2N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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