EPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2015 6:26 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased in
coverage overnight, but the overall organization of the cyclone has
not changed very much. The center appears to be located near the
eastern edge of the deep convection due to moderate northeasterly
shear. An ASCAT overpass at 0416 UTC was very helpful in locating
the center and revealed wind speeds of around 30 kt, which is used
as the initial intensity for this advisory. The shear is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours, which should allow for steady
strengthening, and the depression is likely to become a tropical
storm very soon. The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable
environment through late Tuesday, and the NHC forecast calls for
the system to become a hurricane within the next couple of days.
This is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72 hours,
decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should
cause weakening by days 4 and 5.

The depression is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone
is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next 3 to 4
days while it remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level
ridge over Mexico. The models are in relatively good agreement on
this scenario, but have trended a little northward after 72 hours
and indicate a faster forward motion through much of the forecast
period. As a result, the new NHC forecast is faster than the
previous advisory, and has also been nudged northward after 48
hours. The new forecast lies along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:43 am

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the
depression has been increasing during the last several hours and
banding features are becoming better established on the west side
of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications have increased to
3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB. The latest ADT value
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the
system Tropical Storm Linda.

Recent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located
on the northeast side of the main area of convection due to
northeasterly shear. This shear, however, is not expected to be
strong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded
in a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next
couple of days. After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be
drier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along
the forecast track. These conditions should halt intensification
and result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the
intensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and
LGEM models.

Linda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level
high pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern
United States. The ridge is expected to more or less remain in
place during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on
the same general course. After that time, a slowdown is predicted
as the ridge weakens some. The NHC track forecast has again been
shifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:06 am

Latest vis looks good. It's been five hours since the last microwave pass, and it looks like it has made some good progress building a core in that time.

Image

Also, the Hadley Cell must be very deep at the moment for Linda (and Kevin a few days ago) to be generating convection as deep as it has. CDO temps were between -80*C and -90*C before sunrise, with overshoots even colder (pictured below).

Image
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#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:32 am

It looks much better now than it did last night. May be nearing 45 knots now. LEt's see if this can build an inner core in the near term. If it can, this will have a good chance at becoming a Category 4.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:58 am

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  FIFTEEN     EP152015  09/06/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    45    49    55    61    72    78    78    73    66    59    55    50
V (KT) LAND       40    45    49    55    61    72    78    78    73    66    59    55    50
V (KT) LGE mod    40    45    51    56    63    73    79    79    72    63    54    48    42
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9    11    12     7     6     6     9    12    11    17     8     9     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -2    -5    -5    -1    -3    -4    -4    -8    -7    -3    -3     0
SHEAR DIR         25    21    32    47    66    98   110   133   117   127   129   116   187
SST (C)         29.6  29.5  29.5  29.3  29.0  28.4  27.8  27.2  26.6  25.8  25.3  24.9  25.0
POT. INT. (KT)   161   160   160   159   155   148   141   135   128   119   115   112   113
200 MB T (C)   -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     8     8     7     6     5     5     5     4     4
700-500 MB RH     85    84    85    83    82    79    75    69    64    63    58    50    45
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    18    19    20    21    24    26    27    26    26    24    25    23
850 MB ENV VOR    30    36    30    28    20    35    37    57    60    68    33    32    19
200 MB DIV        89    98   112    99    73   105    90    51    19    45    22     0    -3
700-850 TADV      -4    -4    -6    -7    -6    -1     0     1     0     0     0     4    -2
LAND (KM)        727   712   715   730   692   585   581   562   566   620   680   766   901
LAT (DEG N)     13.8  14.5  15.2  16.1  16.9  18.7  19.9  20.9  21.7  22.4  22.8  23.3  23.9
LONG(DEG W)    108.6 109.4 110.1 111.0 111.8 113.4 114.6 115.8 116.7 117.8 119.0 120.8 122.9
STM SPEED (KT)    10    10    11    12    11    10     8     7     6     6     7    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      20    20    22    28    34    11     4     2     2     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/  9      CX,CY:  -6/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  524  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  90.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   8.  13.  16.  18.  18.  18.  17.  16.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   5.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   3.   9.  12.  14.  12.  12.  10.  11.   8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.   9.  15.  21.  32.  38.  38.  33.  26.  19.  15.  10.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:11 am

So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.
Image
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:17 am

mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.


Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.
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#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:22 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:24:15 N Lon : 109:17:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.3mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 4.0

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.7 degrees
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#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:47 pm

EP, 15, 201509061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1430N, 10930W, , 2, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, TS, VIM, 3, 3030 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO DT
EP, 15, 201509061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1430N, 10940W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JS, V, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,
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#30 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:48 pm

Up to 50kt (which may be conservative).

EP, 15, 2015090618, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1093W, 50, 996, TS
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:14 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.


Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.


I think it has a decent chance at major hurricane status if it can get going soon.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:33 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.


Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.


I think it has a decent chance at major hurricane status if it can get going soon.


Looks like if it intensifies into a major AND takes the northeastern most track in "the cone", there is a decent shot of us getting some moisture out of this one :D
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:So, she shares the same name with the strongest EPAC hurricane on record which also occurred during the month of September of the last strong El Nino (1997). WOW, that's sweet.


Similar track and steering setup as well. It's pretty creepy, but this storm will not become anywhere near as strong that the 1997 monster.


I think it has a decent chance at major hurricane status if it can get going soon.


Absolutely. And so far it's been doing good as shear has dropped off quite a bit.
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#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:52 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:24:15 N Lon : 109:17:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.3mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 4.0

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Linda is strengthening. Satellite images indicate that banding
features have become better defined during the last several hours,
and deep convection has been persisting near the center. The
circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending
several hundred miles across. The Dvorak classifications at 1800
UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and
ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt. Based on these
estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.

Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as
the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone
is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48
hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions
should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the
previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.

Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the
southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is
expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,
which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or
slightly faster forward speed. After that time, a slowdown is
predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward. The NHC
track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the
previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Linda is strengthening. Satellite images indicate that banding
features have become better defined during the last several hours,
and deep convection has been persisting near the center. The
circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending
several hundred miles across. The Dvorak classifications at 1800
UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and
ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt. Based on these
estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.

Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as
the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone
is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48
hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions
should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the
previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.

Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the
southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is
expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,
which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or
slightly faster forward speed. After that time, a slowdown is
predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward. The NHC
track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the
previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Looks better and better for us to get a "piece" of it :cheesy:
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 4:01 pm

SHIPS/LGEM runs:

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  LINDA       EP152015  09/06/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    50    57    65    71    77    84    87    82    73    63    56    47    41
V (KT) LAND       50    57    65    71    77    84    87    82    73    63    56    47    41
V (KT) LGE mod    50    60    69    79    87    94    92    80    69    57    48    41    36
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    10     9     7     7     7    11     9    15    12     8    11    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -5    -4    -1     0    -4    -2    -4    -6    -7    -4    -2     0
SHEAR DIR         15    30    46    64    85   144   113   134   118   143   155   174   204
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.3  29.0  28.7  28.0  27.5  26.9  26.0  25.1  24.6  24.5  24.6
POT. INT. (KT)   160   161   159   155   152   144   138   131   122   113   108   106   107
200 MB T (C)   -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     7     7     5     5     4     3     3     2     2
700-500 MB RH     85    85    84    84    82    76    74    67    64    63    57    51    48
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    18    20    21    22    25    26    26    24    23    21    20    19
850 MB ENV VOR    38    31    29    24    29    49    61    62    54    32    23    16    22
200 MB DIV       105   117   113    85   102   118    83    39    22    15     2     9     4
700-850 TADV      -4    -6    -7    -5    -2     0     0     1    -1     0     2     4     4
LAND (KM)        726   719   731   688   632   591   568   556   589   627   676   744   850
LAT (DEG N)     14.3  15.2  16.1  17.0  17.8  19.4  20.5  21.4  22.3  23.2  23.9  24.5  24.9
LONG(DEG W)    109.3 110.2 111.0 111.9 112.7 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.4 118.7 120.2 121.5 122.9
STM SPEED (KT)    11    12    12    12    11     9     7     7     7     8     7     6     7
HEAT CONTENT      20    22    29    33    18     6     2     2     1     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/  9      CX,CY:  -6/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  505  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   5.   8.  10.  11.  11.  10.   8.   6.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            4.   7.   8.   8.   8.   8.   7.   5.   4.   4.   2.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.   4.   5.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   5.   9.  12.  12.  10.   8.   6.   4.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.  15.  21.  27.  34.  37.  32.  23.  13.   6.  -3.  -9.
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#38 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 06, 2015 6:54 pm

Wow, really intense:

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#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:19 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 15:10:30 N Lon : 110:01:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 987.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 4.3

Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATI
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#40 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:02 pm

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