EPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

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#41 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:12 pm

She looks really good and this area of the EPAC is notorious for the monsters when it gets hot. I'd say ceiling could be high with this one, another cat 4+ in the works?

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#42 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:25 pm

Certainly. Really nice structure. :uarrow:
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Re:

#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:She looks really good and this area of the EPAC is notorious for the monsters when it gets hot. I'd say ceiling could be high with this one, another cat 4+ in the works?

[img]http://i62.tinypic.com/snj6tv.gif


Absolutely, especially with the intense CDO it has. Not a whole unlike Dolores and Marie.
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#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:26 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:09 N Lon : 110:09:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 986.0mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.2 4.4

Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C
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#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:30 pm

EP, 15, 201509070000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 10990W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 5, 4040 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, with cdo


TXPZ23 KNES 070039
TCSENP

A. 15E (LINDA)

B. 07/0000Z

C. 14.8N

D. 109.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WENT WITH 7/10 BANDING FOR DT=3.0. MET=3.0 ON FAST
DEVELOPMENT CURVE AND PAT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
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#46 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:33 pm

Props to the NHC for not SAB hugging.

EP, 15, 2015090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1100W, 60, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 50, 70, 1007, 240, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LINDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
EP, 15, 2015090700, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1100W, 60, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 30, 1007, 240, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LINDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
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#47 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:36 pm

I would say upgrade to a hurricane but MW passes haven't been sharp lately.
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#48 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:38 pm

:uarrow: I definitely agree this is hurricane worthy. Could escalate quickly with RI.
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#49 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:43 pm

If that eyewall completes without a hitch, I'd put my money of Rapid Intensification.

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#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:44 pm

Looking at Dvorak paperwork, this is a T4.0 IMO. This is likely very near or at hurricane status. While we've had some bad luck with microwave, I am sure the storm has build an inner core and like some sort of microwave eye though I don't think it is closed yet and since the CDO is thick, will take some time to clear, but at least with this storm we won't have to worry about not having a thick enough CDO to receive high T numbers from SAB and TAFB.
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#51 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 06, 2015 8:50 pm

:uarrow:

Good assessment.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:22 pm

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Not bad but thought it'd be a bit better than this. Still ahead of schedule.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:38 pm

[code] * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 75 81 86 88 87 80 69 59 51 43 36
V (KT) LAND 60 67 75 81 86 88 87 80 69 59 51 43 36
V (KT) LGE mod 60 70 80 88 94 96 89 75 61 50 42 36 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 7 8 11 11 12 7 9 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 33 35 46 67 108 138 123 110 142 174 171 219 218
SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.5 26.7 25.9 25.2 24.6 24.2 24.2 24.4
POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 154 151 148 139 129 121 113 108 103 103 105
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.2 -50.9 -50.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 81 78 74 70 67 66 62 56 51 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 26 26 26 27 27 26 24 23 21 19
850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 26 34 47 57 71 48 41 18 20 15 21
200 MB DIV 115 108 80 95 107 75 63 -2 19 25 -11 0 -5
700-850 TADV -6 -8 -8 -4 -1 -1 0 -2 1 2 6 1 4
LAND (KM) 700 717 663 602 565 537 503 513 519 536 598 685 793
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.6 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.3 25.1 25.5 25.6
LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.0 111.9 112.7 113.5 114.9 116.0 116.8 117.6 118.7 120.2 121.4 122.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 6 7 7 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 22 31 30 17 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 26. 28. 27. 20. 9. -1. -9. -17. -24./code]
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:50 pm

We have Hurricane Linda.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

...LINDA NOW A HURRICANE...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.4W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:51 pm

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 070248
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#56 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:53 pm

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Linda has been rapidly intensifying. Within the cyclone's sprawling
circulation, a relatively small central dense overcast (CDO) has
formed during the last 6 to 12 hours over the estimated low-level
center. The deep convection within this feature has expanded in
coverage, the associated cloud tops have cooled considerably, and
its shape has become increasingly more symmetric. A 0110 UTC
Windsat pass confirmed the rapid increase of inner-core structural
organization, with a closed low-level ring of convection evident. A
TAFB satellite classification of a T4.0/65 kt and the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.2/70 kt are used to raise the initial
intensity to 65 kt.

The current rapid intensification is likely to continue for another
24 hours or so, since Linda will be moving over anomalously warm
waters of 28 to 29.5 deg C and embedded in a very moist environment.
The only negative factor could be some northeasterly shear as
indicated in SHIPS model output. However, this shear has not
prevented Linda from strengthening much faster than the
climatological rate of one T-number per day thus far. A more
poleward and faster track forecast (described below) should bring
Linda over cooler waters sooner, and increasingly unfavorable
thermodynamic factors should cause rapid weakening to begin in 2 to
3 days. Remnant low status is shown at day 5, but it would not be
surprising if it occurred earlier. The new intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one and shows a peak intensity in 24 hours.
Overall, it is just above the strongest guidance, the SHIPS and FSU
Superensemble output, in the short term and near the multi-model
consensus after that.

Linda has been moving more poleward and faster, and the initial
motion estimate is 320/12. Water vapor and upper-air analyses show
a large mid-level anticyclone near the Texas-Mexico border, with a
weakness in the ridge between 120-130W. Global models show Linda
moving northwestward to north-northwestward toward the break in this
ridge within a deep-layer southeasterly flow during the next couple
of days. As the ridge weakens and shifts westward over northern
Mexico in 2 to 3 days, Linda should continue northwestward but
decelerate. The rapid weakening forecast to begin around that time
should make Linda a progressively shallower cyclone, and its track
is forecast to bend west-northwestward and westward by days 4 and 5
as it will then be under the influence of the low-level subtropical
ridge. The new track forecast is shifted to the right and faster
than the previous one through 72 hours, and is close to the
multi-model consensus. By day 5, the track is slower and a bit to
the left of the old forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

NNNN
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#57 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:03 pm

If this thing had more time, I'd give it a shot at 130 knts+. Too bad this is moving so fast, limiting it's time to bomb out.
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Re:

#58 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:06 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:If this thing had more time, I'd give it a shot at 130 knts+. Too bad this is moving so fast, limiting it's time to bomb out.


I think if it can EI and develop the eye quickly it has a shot. But it would just as quickly ramp down, we've seen moving slow cause issues quite a few times this year here.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#59 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:50 pm

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  07 SEP 2015    Time :   030000 UTC
      Lat :   16:06:00 N     Lon :  110:24:00 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.2 / 982.3mb/ 69.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.2     4.2     4.3

 Center Temp : -83.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/24hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   70km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1009mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES15
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.9 degrees
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#60 Postby zeehag » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:43 am

quite breezy in isla navidad with constantly freshening winds since late afternoon.
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