EPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

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#61 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:24 am

That CDO continues to look impressive and intense. If she can clear out an eye quickly this will be a cat 4 easily with raw T numbers 6+ imo

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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#62 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:25 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:14 N Lon : 111:36:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.7 4.7


Center Temp : -80.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
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#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:36 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070853
TCDEP5

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015

Linda has continued to rapidly strengthen overnight. An 0631 UTC
GMI microwave overpass shows that a well-defined eye has developed
within the very symmetric central dense overcast (CDO) feature that
is seen in conventional satellite imagery. The eye has not yet
become evident in the infrared satellite data. The initial wind
speed has been increased to 75 kt, which is in agreement with the
latest TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT intensity estimates from
UW/CIMSS.

Linda is likely to continue to rapidly strengthen today. The
hurricane will be traversing very warm water and remain in a
moist, low shear environment. The NHC intensity forecast now brings
Linda to major hurricane strength in 24 hours, which is slightly
above the intensity guidance. After that time, decreasing SSTs and
less favorable thermodynamic factors are expected to cause
weakening. A faster rate of decay is likely after 48 hours when
Linda moves over SSTs below 26C and into a much more stable
environment. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the
SHIPS model.

The initial motion estimate is 315/12. The hurricane is forecast
to move northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days around the western
portion of a mid-level ridge that is centered over northern Mexico.
After that time, a weaker Linda should turn west-northwestward,
and then westward in the low to mid-level flow on the southern
side of a low-level ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario. The guidance has shifted a bit to the north at
72 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.7N 111.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 21.5N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 25.2N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 26.0N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 26.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#64 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:24 am

Here's that 0631 UTC GMI microwave overpass.
looks impressive.

Image

Also, the eye has started to become evident on RBTOP and Rainbow IR imagery...
Image
Image
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:35 am

Image

Eye starting to clear.

Image

It's winning time.
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#66 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:35 am

Up to Cat 2.

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
900 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015

Linda continues to gain strength. The cloud pattern consists of a
well organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops and
curved bands spiraling around it. There is no eye feature evident
in satellite images, but a recent SSMIS microwave pass did indicate
that an eye was present. A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support raising the
initial intensity to 85 kt, making Linda a category 2 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The rate of intensification
of Linda has been an impressive 45 kt over the past 24 hours.

The hurricane remains in a moist and relatively low wind shear
environment and over 28-29 deg C waters. These favorable
conditions should allow Linda to strengthen some more today, and it
could reach major hurricane status by tonight. After that time, the
waters begin to cool beneath the storm and environmental relative
humidity values decrease. These more stable conditions should
induce a weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to become a
remnant low in 4-5 days when it moves over sea surface temperatures
of around 24 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above
the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the intensity
model consensus thereafter.

Linda has been on a steady northwestward track at about 12 kt for
the past 12-24 hours, steered by a mid-level high centered over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. This motion is
expected to continue for about another day as the steering pattern
is maintained. After that time, the storm is expected to
decelerate, as the high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn
gradually westward once it becomes a shallow system by the end of
the forecast period. The model guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous
track forecast.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 20.8N 114.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 22.2N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 23.6N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 25.7N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.3N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 26.1N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#67 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:20 am

Linda's current warm spot (near and just east of 112*W) lines up with an enhanced V signature rather than an eye, but I wouldn't be too surprised to an eye emerge before long. This storm looks good.

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Image
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#68 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:52 am

Most of a small diameter eyewall has developed under the CDO.

Image

The eye also might be starting to become visible through the cold cirrus on vis.

Image
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#69 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:05 pm

Expecting an eye to really clear later today. When that happens, this should reach Cat 4 with no problem since it's CDO is cold and thick.
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Re:

#70 Postby CaliforniaResident » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:30 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Expecting an eye to really clear later today. When that happens, this should reach Cat 4 with no problem since it's CDO is cold and thick.


So if it intensifies higher than expected, does that mean it stands a better chance of staying to the northeastern side of the cone? It is currently forecast to turn west around the time it's supposed to weaken to a tropical storm; is the westward projection due to the weakening of the storm or the ridge of high pressure location?
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Re: Re:

#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:41 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Expecting an eye to really clear later today. When that happens, this should reach Cat 4 with no problem since it's CDO is cold and thick.


So if it intensifies higher than expected, does that mean it stands a better chance of staying to the northeastern side of the cone? It is currently forecast to turn west around the time it's supposed to weaken to a tropical storm; is the westward projection due to the weakening of the storm or the ridge of high pressure location?


While this storm is more likely to head right if this gets stronger, the turn to the west, however, is due the ridge of high pressure location, but you should get mid to upper level moisture to this thing once it decouples vertically.
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#72 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:47 pm

ADT is finally on the rise again

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2015 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 17:52:52 N Lon : 112:31:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.5mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.1 5.1


Center Temp : -72.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.7C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
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#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:14 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 18:03:22 N Lon : 112:30:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.4mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.6 4.6

Center Temp : -73.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C
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Re: EPAC: LINDA - Hurricane

#74 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:33 pm

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015
300 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015

After strengthening at a rapid pace for the past day or so, it
appears that Linda's intensity is leveling off. The cloud pattern
has not changed much since the last advisory and consists of a well
organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops. There
remains no evidence of an eye in geostationary satellite pictures,
although a ragged eye is apparent in microwave images. The latest
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are both 5.0/90 kt, so the
initial wind speed is nudged upward to that value.

Linda could strengthen a little more through tonight while it
remains over warm water and in a moist and relatively low shear
environment. After that time, however, cooler water and a dry and
stable air mass should promote steady weakening. The new NHC
intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is
in fair agreement with the intensity model consensus. This forecast
calls for Linda to degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days
when the cyclone is expected to be over sea surface temperatures of
about 24 deg C.

The hurricane is still moving northwestward but at a slightly
slower forward speed than earlier, 320/10 kt. A continued
northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is predicted
for the next 24 to 36 hours while a mid-level high pressure system
remains centered over northern Mexico and the southern United
States. After that time, the storm is expected to decelerate, as the
high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn gradually westward
once it becomes a shallow system by the end of the forecast period.
The NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one,
especially at days 3-5, to come into better agreement with the
latest consensus aids.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.3N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.2N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 22.7N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 24.0N 116.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 25.8N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 26.4N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 26.4N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#75 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:29 pm

Linda definitely outdid predictions. Will this be a major hurricane?
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Re:

#76 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:51 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Linda definitely outdid predictions. Will this be a major hurricane?


I'm leaning no. It appears to be holding steady as a Cat 2 CDO storm, with no eye even on VIS.
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#77 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:53 pm

Yeah been waiting and waiting for her eye, I thought it would've happened much quicker. If she doesn't clear it out soon, the optimum conditions will pass her by for max potential. Still a good looking system though.

As mentioned by Yellow Evan her moisture envelope will approach SoCal and the southwest though might help there.
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#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:43 pm

lol


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2015 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 18:27:32 N Lon : 113:18:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 971.3mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.2 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.3C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
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#79 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:00 pm

So it seems like Linda is another hurricane this season in the EPAC that is having trouble developing an eye.
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#80 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:12 pm

Why does every microwave pass have to suck for Linda? Seriously, there hasn't been a good one since the one I posted this morning.
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