ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:27 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1938 UTC MON SEP 7 2015

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922015) 20150907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150907 1800 150908 0600 150908 1800 150909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 60.6W 31.0N 60.7W 31.4N 60.8W 31.7N 61.1W
BAMD 30.8N 60.6W 30.9N 59.8W 31.1N 59.2W 31.5N 58.7W
BAMM 30.8N 60.6W 31.0N 60.4W 31.2N 60.2W 31.4N 60.2W
LBAR 30.8N 60.6W 30.7N 59.9W 30.7N 59.5W 30.9N 59.5W
SHIP 15KTS 24KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 15KTS 24KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150909 1800 150910 1800 150911 1800 150912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 61.5W 34.1N 62.2W 38.6N 59.7W 44.8N 52.4W
BAMD 32.2N 58.5W 35.0N 58.9W 40.4N 57.2W 47.3N 47.7W
BAMM 31.9N 60.2W 34.2N 60.5W 39.1N 58.5W 45.7N 50.6W
LBAR 31.1N 59.6W 32.3N 60.7W 35.2N 61.0W 40.6N 57.5W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 61KTS 72KTS
DSHP 50KTS 59KTS 61KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 31.0N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 62.5W
WNDCUR = 15KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

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Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Tue Sep 08, 2015 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#2 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:33 pm

Where did this come from?
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#3 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:53 pm

First time in awhile I've seen an invest without prior mention by NHC.
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#4 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:59 pm

Alright who fell asleep :roll: Talk about coming out of the blue.
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#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:03 pm

92L INVEST 150907 1800 30.9N 61.4W ATL 25 1014
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#6 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:13 pm

someone post this model page
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#7 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:34 pm

Just poof..
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#8 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:35 pm

It's just a weak low on the trailing end of a cold front east of Bermuda. It will head north toward the Canadian maritimes.
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#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:57 pm

Doesn't surprise me! Noticed when the 12z Euro ran it developed something weak just East or Southeast of Bermuda in 48hrs. Was wondering earlier if it was worth mentioning. Expect the NHC to mention it on their 8pm TWO.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#10 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:It's just a weak low on the trailing end of a cold front east of Bermuda. It will head north toward the Canadian maritimes.


Same disturbed area of frontal boundary that brought extra shear to knockout what was left of Fred?
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#11 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:05 pm

No model thread so I'll just put it here for now. Someone can move it if they want.

What the Euro was showing on it's 12z run.

48hrs. :darrow:
Image

72hrs. :darrow:
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#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:30 pm

Could be a storm threat for Bermuda so they need to watch this system

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#13 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:32 pm

Uhh, which one is the tropical cyclone again? :lol:

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Re:

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:42 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Uhh, which one is the tropical cyclone again? :lol:

Image


If I knew nothing I would have said the one on the right but Grace is the one on the left thats why I think that 92L has a lot of potential to even become a strong tropical storm for Bermuda thats why they need to watch

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#15 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:45 pm

NHC mentions the area.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:46 pm

A concentrated area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the
central Atlantic about 250 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat favorable
for development during the next few days while the system remains
nearly stationary for the next day or so, and then moves northward
at 5 to 10 mph by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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#17 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 12:59 am

An area of cloudiness and showers located about 250 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to become
somewhat conducive for development during the next few days while
the system remains nearly stationary for the next day or so, and
then moves northward at 5 to 10 mph by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:45 am

8 AM:

An area of cloudiness and showers located about 300 miles east-
southeast of Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development during the next couple of days while the
system remains nearly stationary for the next day or so, and then
moves northward at 5 to 10 mph by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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#19 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 1:12 pm

An area of cloudiness and showers located about 250 miles east-
southeast of Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Strong upper-level winds are inhibiting the development
of this system, but these winds could become more conducive during
the next couple of days. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary today and tonight, and then move northward at 5 to 10 mph
on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the system should be
absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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#20 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 1:22 pm

92L INVEST 150908 1800 31.4N 61.7W ATL 25 1013
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