ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

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Alyono
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#41 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 09, 2015 3:13 pm

ASCAT and a ship report say this is very close to TS intensity. Should become Henri within the next 12 hours
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 09, 2015 3:46 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015

The depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized so
far today, and the low-level center is exposed a short distance to
the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection. The deep
convection itself is not well organized, with scant evidence of
banding features. Final data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support
keeping the intensity at 30 kt. The vertical wind shear over the
system, which is currently near 20 kt from the southwest, is
predicted by the global models to relax somewhat over the next
24 to 48 hours. This would allow for some strengthening, as
indicated in the official forecast. By 72 hours, the cyclone
should be located over cold waters and the global models depict it
as embedded within a baroclinic zone. Therefore the system is
forecast to be extratropical around that time.

The depression is still drifting east-southeastward or 115/3 kt.
Over the next couple of days, a mid-level ridge is predicted to
build to the east and northeast of the cyclone while a trough
drops into the eastern United States. This evolution of the
steering pattern should cause the cyclone to move northward at an
increasing forward speed into Friday. Afterwards, the flow ahead
of the trough should cause the system to turn eastward at an even
faster forward speed within the mid-latitude westerlies. The
official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical
guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 30.6N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 31.9N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 33.9N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 36.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 40.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 47.0N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 48.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 48.0N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#43 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 8:58 pm

Expect an upgrade at 3z. A recent ASCAT pass showed several 35kt wind barbs.

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#44 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM HENRI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#45 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015

Recently received ASCAT-B scatterometer data showed an area of 35-40
kt wind vectors in the convection about 75-100 n mi east of the
center. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 35 kt and the cyclone is upgraded to a
tropical storm. Despite the upgrade, Henri remains a disorganized
system, with the low-level center remaining exposed to the west of
the convection due to 15-20 kt of shear. In addition, microwave
satellite data and experimental European multispectral satellite
imagery suggest a tongue of dry air is entraining into the cyclone
around the west, south, and southeast sides of the circulation.

Henri has started its expected northward track with the initial
motion of 355/4. For the next 36-48 hours, the cyclone should move
generally northward with an increase in forward speed between the
subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer trough moving
eastward through the eastern United States. After that time, Henri
should turn northeastward and eastward as it enters the westerlies.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies
a little south of the center of the guidance envelope after 36 hours
due to a northward shift in the guidance.

The dynamical models suggest that the shear should subside during
the next 36-48 hours, and that the dry air entrainment should also
decrease. This combination should allow Henri to strengthen until
it reaches colder sea surface temperatures north of the Gulf Stream
in a little under 48 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to
become extratropical as it merges with a frontal system. The new
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near 50 kt in 36-48
hours, followed by gradual weakening. The first 48 hours are in
best agreement with the SHIPS model, and the intensities after
extratropical transition are based on input from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 31.3N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 32.8N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 35.3N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 38.6N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 42.4N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 47.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 47.5N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z 47.0N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#46 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:50 pm

8 named storms so far. Not too shabby considering we still have a little less than 3 months left of the ATL season.
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Re:

#47 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:8 named storms so far. Not too shabby considering we still have a little less than 3 months left of the ATL season.


Interestingly with the exception of 2004's hyperactive season, this year leads storm-wise for El Nino years.
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Re: Re:

#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:18 pm

Hammy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:8 named storms so far. Not too shabby considering we still have a little less than 3 months left of the ATL season.


Interestingly with the exception of 2004's hyperactive season, this year leads storm-wise for El Nino years.


Pretty sure 1969 was an El Nino year.
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Re: Re:

#49 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 09, 2015 11:03 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Hammy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:8 named storms so far. Not too shabby considering we still have a little less than 3 months left of the ATL season.


Interestingly with the exception of 2004's hyperactive season, this year leads storm-wise for El Nino years.


Pretty sure 1969 was an El Nino year.


Correct, but there were only seven storms up to this point (though I probably should have clarified that it was only up to the first third of September.)
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:02 am

I am quite shocked that TD 8 was upgraded to a TS with the convection and stronger winds so far removed from the COC which is fairly broad, not even a system in this area can escape the shear.
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#51 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 10, 2015 6:12 am

Strongest convection is a good 100 miles from the naked COC this morning.
Image
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Re:

#52 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 10, 2015 7:35 am

gatorcane wrote:8 named storms so far. Not too shabby considering we still have a little less than 3 months left of the ATL season.


Henri is the poorest excuse for a TS all season, and that's saying something. I wouldn't give it much thought looking at a satellite view of the basin.

Yeah, 8 storms and 25 ACE. Mostly weak, sheared, short-lived storms. Only micro-storm Danny was able to briefly find a small area where it could rapidly intensify. Otherwise, most of the basin is a death zone as far as TC development.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 10, 2015 7:53 am

NDG wrote:I am quite shocked that TD 8 was upgraded to a TS with the convection and stronger winds so far removed from the COC which is fairly broad, not even a system in this area can escape the shear.


ASCAT found 35-40 knt winds. I'm surprised this isn't 40 knts actually.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:37 am

TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015

The cloud pattern of Henri remains disorganized with most of the
convection sheared off to the east and northeast of the center.
Visible images also indicate that the system has little organization
in the central core, with multiple smaller vortices rotating around
a mean center. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, although some
Dvorak estimates suggest it could have weakened to a tropical
depression.

Southwesterly shear and dry air is currently limiting the amount of
deep convection near the center of the cyclone. Global models,
however, all weaken the shear later today, which could allow Henri
to strengthen while it moves over warm waters before it crosses the
north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours. Henri is still
forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days
and then weaken while it moves over very cold water with high
shear. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC forecast is very close to the previous
one.

Satellite fixes indicate that Henri is moving northward at about 8
kt. The storm should accelerate northward today and northeastward
tomorrow as it encounters faster steering from the subtropical
ridge. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then
eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. There have been no significant changes
to the guidance, and the NHC track forecast is basically just an
update of the previous prediction.

The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 32.6N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 34.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 37.8N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 41.4N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 49.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 10, 2015 10:37 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
NDG wrote:I am quite shocked that TD 8 was upgraded to a TS with the convection and stronger winds so far removed from the COC which is fairly broad, not even a system in this area can escape the shear.


ASCAT found 35-40 knt winds. I'm surprised this isn't 40 knts actually.


I was not questioning so much the ASCAT's estimated winds from last night, I was questioning the TS status versus more of a subtropical identity with the convection and strongest winds being so far removed from the broad circulation, it doesn't even has a defined LLC.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#56 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 10, 2015 12:35 pm

ASCAT from this morning though it missed most of the eastern circulation suggests to me that this is tropical storm, it does not even qualify as a pure tropical system.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds86.png
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed image, no direct linking
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:25 pm

NDG, did you mean "not" a tropical storm? I see some 25-30kt winds located 115nm from the center. Henri doesn't qualify as a TS. I would expect a downgrade on the next advisory.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2015 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015

Henri continues to struggle with most of its deep convection well
removed to the northeast of the center. In fact, it is taking on
some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone with recent
scatterometer data indicating that the radius of maximum winds has
increased to a rather high value of 120 n mi. The initial wind
speed will remain 35 kt on the basis of 30-35 kt winds observed in
partial scatterometer pass that missed the area that likely
has the strongest winds.

Southerly shear is still forecast to relax overnight near Henri,
which theoretically could result in intensification during the next
day or so before the cyclone moves over cold water on Saturday.
However, dry air aloft persists near the storm and the overall cloud
pattern is quite disorganized. The unfavorable factors are starting
to outweigh the favorable conditions, so the official intensity
forecast is reduced from the previous one, a little below the model
consensus. Extratropical transition is expected within 2 days due
to strong shear and very cold water. A reasonable alternative
solution provided by some of the global models is that the cyclone
stays weak and opens up into a trough during the day on Friday.

Henri is moving faster to the north, now about 13 kt. The storm
should continue to accelerate northward tonight and northeastward
tomorrow due to it encountering faster steering from the subtropical
ridge. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then
eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude flow. The guidance has trended to the left
with the track of Henri, perhaps due to a weaker forecast
representation of the storm. The NHC forecast is shifted in that
direction, although remains on the right side of the guidance
envelope. If it survives, the cyclone should become absorbed by a
larger extratropical low by day 4 over the far North Atlantic.

The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 33.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 36.1N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 39.7N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 46.8N 51.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 48.5N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#59 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Sep 10, 2015 5:24 pm

I think they are just naming blobs so I can't win the S2K contest this year. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:33 pm

TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015

Henri has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. The system continues to have some characteristics of a
subtropical cyclone, with the convective banding and strongest
winds well away from the center in the northeastern semicircle.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt, as there has been no new
scatterometer data from the area where the strongest winds are
likely occurring.

The initial motion is northward or 005/12. Henri should accelerate
and turn to the northeast during the next 48 hours as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a quick eastward motion
is expected until the cyclone dissipates. The new track forecast
is an update of the previous forecast and is just to the right of
the various consensus models.

The vertical wind shear over Henri is diminishing, so there is a
chance that the system could intensify a little before reaching cold
water north of the Gulf Stream in about 18 hours. After that, the
system should begin extratropical transition as it merges with a
frontal system, and this process is expected to be complete in about
36 hours. The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical system between 72-96 hours. An alternative scenario
is that Henri could degenerate to a trough between 24-72 hours as
indicated by several of the global models.

The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 34.8N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 37.5N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 41.2N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 44.9N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0000Z 47.6N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z 48.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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