WPAC: KROVANH - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:04 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 SEP 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 21:57:06 N Lon : 143:44:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 952.1mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +0.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 106km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.7 degrees
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#62 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:05 am

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SYMMETRIC CLOUD
STRUCTURE WITH GOOD SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 20NM CLOUD FILLED
EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A
190609Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS HIGHLY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION
AND A SOLID MICROWAVE EYE. AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS ASSESSED DUE
TO CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VWS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TY 20W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL TRACK ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD AND ROUNDING THE STR AXIS THROUGH TAU 36.
EXPECT THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AT A
NEAR RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, TO A PEAK OF
110 KNOTS. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, VWS WILL INCREASE DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY KROVANH WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND THE STR. INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT
ACCELERATES INTO THE WEAK MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ETT AT TAU 96 AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A BLOCKING DEEP MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE AND ITS AFFECT ON THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR TY 20W.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
(PRIOR TO TAU 96), LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:54 am

Image

Marianas got lucky this time...
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#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:52 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 SEP 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 22:13:51 N Lon : 143:30:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 943.3mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 5.9 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Likely around 110-115 knots.
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#65 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:08 pm

20W KROVANH 150917 1800 22.9N 142.8E WPAC 105 944

Category 3!
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#66 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:27 pm

I think this could become a supertyphoon its looking good

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#67 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:48 pm

Krovanh may have peaked. A fairly recent microwave pass showed a break in the southern eyewall, and that seems to correlate well with a slightly degraded appearance characterized by more asymmetric and bursting convection around the CDO. If the break is shored up quickly, it is possible that Krovanh could strengthen a little more, but time is beginning to grow short.

Image

Image
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#68 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:19 pm

It's fun to see a Cat 3 in the open waters during the WPAC's "lull" period. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#69 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:07 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 17NM
CLOUD FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE CORE THAT HAS
BEEN FLARING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH IS ALSO
PROVIDING AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS SUSTAINING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION. A 172228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED 20NM MICROWAVE EYE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY DUE TO PERSISTENT 20 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT AT 105
KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES AND THE UNCHANGED STRUCTURE OF THE TYPHOON. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT AS VWS HAS INCREASED AND PRESSURE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND TILT THE SYSTEM.
TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND ROUND
THE STR AXIS BEFORE TURNING TO A NORTHEASTERN TRAJECTORY. MARGINAL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING TY KROVANH TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 12, CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING
VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE TYPHOON. SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS JUST
AFTER TAU 48 WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY KROVANH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE WEAK MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DUE TO A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS, LENDS TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#70 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:20 am

The NHC have added Krovanh's Best Track file to their FTP server. I haven't seen them add a typhoon there.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bwp202015.dat
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#71 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:45 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181738Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WEST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND
TRACK MOTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS.
TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.
B. TY 20W WILL RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TY 20W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 BUT COULD COMPLETE ETT EARLIER.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND SUPPORTS
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TY 20W IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST AFTER
TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES DUE TO AN
ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, PRODUCING A SLOWER RE-CURVE SCENARIO.
BASICALLY, A MIDLATITUDE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER
WESTERLY STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD STILL STEER THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD. DESPITE THE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#72 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 19, 2015 6:43 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE ON 190545Z IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SST WILL FURTHER WEAKEN KROVANH. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
DIVERGES DUE TO AN ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WHICH WILL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, PRODUCING A SLOWER RE-CURVE
SCENARIO. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONCENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Typhoon

#73 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:38 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1520 KROVANH (1520)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 30.4N 146.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 34.6N 150.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 211200UTC 36.6N 152.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 221200UTC 39.2N 154.8E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191136Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VWS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED METOP-A IMAGE AND PGTW SATELLITE
FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS LOWERED TO 60
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL DECREASE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND WEAKENING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES KROVANH IS NOW LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30+ KNOT) VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DECAY KROVANH AS IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRA-
TROPICAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONCENSUS.//
NNNN
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#74 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 19, 2015 9:39 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 191725Z NOAA-19 IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 20W IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1520 KROVANH (1520)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 31.9N 147.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 34.9N 150.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 220000UTC 37.1N 152.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 20, 2015 3:54 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 34.0N 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 35.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 36.8N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 34.4N 149.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. PERSISTENT STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16 FEET.//
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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