WPAC: KROVANH - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:43 pm

AMSU data already at 65 knots.

I'd put it anywhere from 60 to 70 knots now. Dvorak doing poorly...
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#42 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:55 pm

JMA jumped up to 55 kt at 03Z, making Krovanh a Severe Tropical Storm.
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:36 am

Image

Only up to 55 knots but expected to peak at Category 4 now!

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND CORRESPONDING FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES KROVANH IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. TS 20W CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING POLEWARD AND ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAU 72.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 20W WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:43 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 19:51:06 N Lon : 146:44:38 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 974.1mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.7

Center Temp : -33.3C Cloud Region Temp : -61.6C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.3 degrees
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:45 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 160913
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202015
800 PM CHST WED SEP 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM KROVANH NEARING CLOSEST APPROACH TO AGRIHAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN CNMI. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 146.8E

ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 155 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 480 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KROVANH
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.8 EAST. KROVANH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE KROVANH WITHIN 110 MILES NORTHEAST
OF AGRIHAN AROUND 1000 PM THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM KROVANH IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AND 105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:11 am

Latest:

Image

Impressive...
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:34 am

20W KROVANH 150916 1200 20.0N 146.3E WPAC 65 974

This is the right call and about time although i think it could be a little stronger.

Upgraded to the 14th typhoon of the season!
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:46 am

euro6208 wrote:20W KROVANH 150916 1200 20.0N 146.3E WPAC 65 974

This is the right call and about time although i think it could be a little stronger.

Upgraded to the 14th typhoon of the season!


That's weird.

BT was updated and is down to 60 knots.
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#49 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:22 am

JTWC's Dvorak Technique (DT) for 1432Z yielded a 4.0, but both their Model Expected T# (MET) and Pattern Analysis (PT) yielded a 3.5, which is what they went with. I probably would have went with DT, but they seemed to compromise with 60 kt for the 15Z operational advisory, which I can't really complain about too much.

TPPN11 PGTW 161506

A. TROPICAL STORM 20W (KROVANH)

B. 16/1432Z

C. 20.14N

D. 145.89E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF
1.05 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AND MET YIELD A
3.5. DBO PT AND MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1055Z 19.97N 146.58E MMHS
16/1111Z 19.90N 146.47E GPMI
16/1150Z 20.03N 146.57E MMHS


UEHARA


It should also be noted that a 1056Z partial ASCAT pass didn't even show any 50 kt wind barbs. ASCAT's low bias is well known and documented, but having no data from the pass indicating winds were within 15 kt of typhoon intensiy does raise an eyebrow a little, which is perhaps why JTWC edited their best track from 65 kt down to 60. As I mentined though, the ASCAT pass was only a partial hit and only got about half of the circulation, so between the scatterometer's low bias, slight degradation of data reliablity at the edge of the pass, and data missing from the rest of the circulation, I'd expect winds to be a fair bit higher than what the pass showed. It wouldn't surprise me if winds were of typhoon strength, but that might be stretching it a little considering the avilable data. With everything we know for sure, 60 kt is a perfectly acceptable intensity estimate for the time being in my opinion. However, with how Krovanh appears to be intensifying at the moment, it wouldn't surprise me if the winds were analyzed at greater than 65 kt for the next advisory (more likely for JTWC, but possibly even JMA).

Image
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#50 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:47 am

As for what is yet to come with Krovanh, I think there is approximately a 48 hour window for it to get pretty strong. Its usually safer as a forecaster to be a little more bearish outside the 20s because of increasing subtropical and mid-latitude influences, but Krovanh's smaller size should help it to stay more unaffected from the negative influences, at least at first. With great poleward outflow that should offset shear lurking to the north for a while and great structure rapidly consolidating rapidly consolidating right now, I'd lean more towards JTWC's agressive intensity forecast than JMA's more gradual strengthening. As far as max potential is concerned, I do think super typhoon is out of reach, but anything below that could be fair game. My sweet spot is probably near a T6.0 intensity or just below at about tau 48, or 110-115 kt using 1 minute winds and 90-95 kt using 10 minute winds from JMA's Koba table, which is pretty near JTWC's estimate from their 15Z advisory.
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#51 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:56 pm

JMA up to a 65 kt typhoon at 18Z for Krovanh.

TY 1520 (KROVANH)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 16 September 2015

<Analyses at 16/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°20'(20.3°)
E145°40'(145.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E144°20'(144.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E143°10'(143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°30'(26.5°)
E143°10'(143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°00'(30.0°)
E145°35'(145.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:04 pm

Finally...

WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CORE STRUCTURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. A 161728Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL 20NM
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHILE THE 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS INTENSE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WRAPPING AROUND
THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE WIND FIELD HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A
161151Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND
PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE SEEN IN ALL AVAILABLE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) NEAR 30 CELSIUS. TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W WILL TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD AND ROUNDING THE RIDGE
AXIS. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24, VWS WILL
INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ALLOWING TY KROVANH TO
PEAK AT 105 KNOTS NEAR TAU 36. AFTERWARDS THE INCREASED VWS WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 20W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE WEAK
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:06 pm

Image
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#54 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:59 pm

Eye clearing out. This thing is likely nearing Cat 3. I'd estimate 90 or 95 knots right now, even though the structure is somewhat ragged.
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#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 16, 2015 8:02 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 170032

A. TYPHOON 20W (KROVANH)

B. 16/2332Z

C. 20.90N

D. 144.90E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. EIR SHOWS A
DEVELOPING EYE. MG SURR B YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. MET YIELDS A 4.0
WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHILE PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO PT, AS
DT IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1854Z 20.50N 145.55E SSMS
16/2032Z 20.57N 145.38E SSMS
16/2105Z 20.65N 145.33E WIND


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 16, 2015 8:27 pm

I see this one is attempting to be a Cat3. However by the looks of its structure and the conditions 24+ hours out, I won't be surprised if it stays below Cat4 strength. That is just me speaking though, and WPAC surprised us many times before. :lol:
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#57 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:45 pm

Convection continues to pulse along the fledgling eyewall. It'll probably do so until the ring fully stabilizes, which might not be too long.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: KROVANH - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:48 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I see this one is attempting to be a Cat3. However by the looks of its structure and the conditions 24+ hours out, I won't be surprised if it stays below Cat4 strength. That is just me speaking though, and WPAC surprised us many times before. :lol:


Shear is likely to pick up soon, yes. I'd expect this to peak somewhere around 105-115 knors.
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#59 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Sep 17, 2015 2:26 am

not a big deal but I wonder why the thread title still says TS :lol:
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Re:

#60 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:02 am

dexterlabio wrote:not a big deal but I wonder why the thread title still says TS :lol:


I was sleeping and another fellow moderator did not come to edit title. :)
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