ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:01 am

AL, 93, 2015091312, , BEST, 0, 102N, 345W, 20, 1012, LO

Link to thread of this system at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117539

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:29 am

cycloneye wrote:AL, 93, 2015091312, , BEST, 0, 102N, 345W, 20, 1012, LO

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/sgwnjhi.jpg[/img]

Hey cycloneye, guess what. You forgot to include the link to the system's Talking Tropics thread again! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:33 am

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:AL, 93, 2015091312, , BEST, 0, 102N, 345W, 20, 1012, LO

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/sgwnjhi.jpg[/img]

Hey cycloneye, guess what. You forgot to include the link to the system's Talking Tropics thread again! :lol:


Yeah,I am forgetting but I will try hard to not forget in the future. :)
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#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 9:16 am

For me, the biggest surprise globally in the tropics this year is the ability for the African Easterly Waves to develop into named systems over the eastern third of the Main Development Region. This one looks like it could pull it off once again. Very impressive, especially for an El Nino year of this magnitude.
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#5 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 13, 2015 9:20 am

1900hurricane wrote:For me, the biggest surprise globally in the tropics this year is the ability for the African Easterly Waves to develop into named systems over the eastern third of the Main Development Region. This one looks like it could pull it off once again. Very impressive, especially for an El Nino year of this magnitude.


A very astute observation. The systems develop out there in the MDR and then upon reaching 50 degrees Longitude, they meet their demise thanks to hostile conditions, although Grace deteriorated much quicker, fading upon reaching 40 Longitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby YoshiMike » Sun Sep 13, 2015 11:03 am

This system is supposed to have an early recurve though right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 11:57 am

If the intensity that the models are portraying comes to fructition,then the North Atlantic ACE units will skyrocket.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:If the intensity that the models are portraying comes to fructition,then the North Atlantic ACE units will skyrocket.


12Z GFS continues to show a HUGE ACE pumper for the Atlantic. Look at that 953MB MAJOR Hurricane. Plus look at the one further south as that looks like a long tracker too.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:41 pm

Up to 70%-90%

An area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:45 pm

The I name has a bad history...last year we didn't even get that far, fortunately! Could Ida be the storm of 2015?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:45 pm

Could be a race to Ida between this and 94L as this will probably have a name by tomorrow and possibly 94L around the same time

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:32 pm

18z Best Track:

As of 18:00 UTC Sep 13, 2015:


Location: 10.3°N 35.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
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#13 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 3:00 pm

good vorticity and looks like there are signs of organization

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 13, 2015 3:08 pm

When is the peak of hurricane season? Has it started yet?
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 3:11 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:When is the peak of hurricane season? Has it started yet?


The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is around September 10.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby curtadams » Sun Sep 13, 2015 3:34 pm

The El Nino is more to the west and less strong right off the coast of South America. Maybe that's shifted the El Nino "TS death zone" to the west as well and that's why storms are developing right off the coast of Africa, which normally doesn't see many TS .
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#17 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 13, 2015 3:47 pm

Hey guys, when will start the presumed WNW to NW movement? :roll:
For now 93L is moving straight west, so let's hope that the models are right about that... if not looks like the EC have to maybe monitor 93L much carefully... but hopefully we're far away from that solution :) Let's wait and see a bit before assuming any assertion because of 93L is not even a TD :oops:
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#18 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:01 pm

Gusty it is still moving west (275) and embedded in the ITCZ. Based on what I am seeing from the models, they are trying to turn it NW pretty soon. They might be trying to pull this out of the ITCZ too quickly. Nonetheless, if it develops like the models think, no reason to believe it won't run toward the NW then N into the weakness. Thanks to Typhoon Kilo, there is a huge anomalously strong trough that should erode the Central Atlantic ridge over the next few days.

Latest saved VIS loop. Nice looking invest. The Atlantic really can produce from deep in the MDR! Where is the traffic on this thread? :)

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#19 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:10 pm

I like how this Invest's past track is perfectly on the latitude line on S2K's track map (with it just slightly off closest to Africa).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:17 pm

Yep, I'd definitely bet Hurricane on this one! Good chance at a major too.....?
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