ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:41 pm

Up to 80%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 7:50 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2015091400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 364W, 25, 1011, LO
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#23 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 7:59 pm

Looking at the floater, still looks like the movement is west with no sign of a turn yet. It also looks slightly less organized and more elongated though deep convection continues to fire. If this thing is developing like the models say it will, we should start to see it trying to lift out of the ITCZ within the next 24 hours or so. I think the models might be trying to spin it up and eject it too quickly.

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Re:

#24 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the floater, still looks like the movement is west with no sign of a turn yet. It also looks slightly less organized and more elongated though deep convection continues to fire. If this thing is developing like the models say it will, we should start to see it trying to lift out of the ITCZ within the next 24 hours or so. I think the models might be trying to spin it up and eject it too quickly.

http://i.imgur.com/oKEW1fP.gif

Gatorcane thanks your bright input... as usual :). That's always a pleasure to read your analysis. Oh the models this year... we should take them carefully especially when we discover this surprising cane season. We don't know what Mother Nature has in store. We should stay and maintain the wait and see mode at least for now :).
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#25 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:55 pm

Image

I dont see where the weakness lies that this is supposed to go through. It looks like it has passed it
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#26 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:55 pm

First appareance for 93L on SSD... racing west.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
13/2345 UTC 10.7N 37.6W T1.0/1.0 93L
13/1815 UTC 10.6N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 93L
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#27 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 9:51 pm

The wave out in front of this one looks to be losing convection quite rapidly. The convection envelope around this wave seems to be eroding too the farther west it gets. I wonder if the ECMWF's prediction of this NOT developing may just be a possibility?
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Re:

#28 Postby lordkev » Sun Sep 13, 2015 10:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:The wave out in front of this one looks to be losing convection quite rapidly. The convection envelope around this wave seems to be eroding too the farther west it gets. I wonder if the ECMWF's prediction of this NOT developing may just be a possibility?


This is the one out front, isn't it?
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Re: Re:

#29 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 13, 2015 10:41 pm

lordkev wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The wave out in front of this one looks to be losing convection quite rapidly. The convection envelope around this wave seems to be eroding too the farther west it gets. I wonder if the ECMWF's prediction of this NOT developing may just be a possibility?


This is the one out front, isn't it?


This is the eastern one, the other is around 45-50W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#30 Postby blp » Sun Sep 13, 2015 10:41 pm

40W is where it starts to lift out WNW to NW out of of the ITCZ. It is forecast to start in 12hrs from now.
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#31 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:04 am

This very likely won't develop, it's getting more and more stretched out east-west and the shear is already 20+ kts and increasing.
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#32 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:19 am

Slight increasing numbers....

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/0545 UTC 10.6N 37.4W T1.5/1.5 93L
13/2345 UTC 10.7N 37.6W T1.0/1.0 93L
13/1815 UTC 10.6N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 93L
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Re:

#33 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:32 am

Hammy wrote:This very likely won't develop, it's getting more and more stretched out east-west and the shear is already 20+ kts and increasing.


Good call, it looks like crap this morning.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:49 am

A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing minimal shower
activity. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and this system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
generally northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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#35 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:24 am

This invest looks bad. Talk about a near poof overnight though the signs it could poof were there. It is barely hanging on this morning. Might still make a run at a td or ts but the hurricane potential is decreasing.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#36 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:24 am

NDG wrote:
Hammy wrote:This very likely won't develop, it's getting more and more stretched out east-west and the shear is already 20+ kts and increasing.


Good call, it looks like crap this morning.


[img ]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/B08D8B9E-A5BD-4955-B38B-B9113111021E_zps6ms5rwck.gif[/img]

It may look like crap convection wise but it still has a very healthy looking spin IMO.
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Re:

#37 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:39 am

gatorcane wrote:This invest looks bad. Talk about a near poof overnight though the signs it could poof were there. It is barely hanging on this morning. Might still make a run at a td or ts but the hurricane potential is decreasing.

Looks like.... So do you think that it could track slight more west than anticipated?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#38 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:58 am

This disturbance doesn't present the appearance of a tropical depression/storm that's about to develop. It's looked bad for days. I haven't understood the NHC jumping all over this.

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#39 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:02 am

93L...
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1145 UTC 11.1N 39.1W T1.0/1.5 93L
14/0545 UTC 10.6N 37.4W T1.5/1.5 93L
13/2345 UTC 10.7N 37.6W T1.0/1.0 93L
13/1815 UTC 10.6N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 93L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#40 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:04 am

wxman57 wrote:This disturbance doesn't present the appearance of a tropical depression/storm that's about to develop. It's looked bad for days. I haven't understood the NHC jumping all over this.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/93L.gif

Maybe they are seeing things we don't see wxman57?! But agree that this feature has trouble to spin up for now. Wait and see...
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