ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#101 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:44 pm

The satellite presentation of the depression has degraded during
the past few hours, with dry air and southwesterly shear resulting
in the convection become displaced from the low-level center.


Now we have convection developing near the center, so 11pm will probably raise the winds and talk about it getting better organized, forecast TS, only for it to weaken a few hours later. So goes the indecisive 2015 hurricane season.

I will say there's probably a 50/50 chance this becomes a TS as the Euro (and GFS I believe) shows slight tightening of the isobars in 24-48 hours as well as the tendency to slightly underestimate less organized systems with satellite classification (and there should be an ASCAT pass eventually)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#102 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:52 pm

Image

Windsat showing 50kt, I know it has a high bias but could this still be enough for 35kt TS upgrade?
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#103 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:58 pm

WindSat estimates are simply not considered reliable for TC's.
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#104 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:34 pm

I don't blame wxman for saying "next". That's the theme of 2015. I don't see anything changing until next year........Conditions just aren't there this year folks.
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Re:

#105 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:00 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I don't blame wxman for saying "next". That's the theme of 2015. I don't see anything changing until next year........Conditions just aren't there this year folks.


Well yeah it's an El Nino. Next year maybe if the El Nino is gone by then.
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Re: Re:

#106 Postby CaliforniaResident » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:09 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I don't blame wxman for saying "next". That's the theme of 2015. I don't see anything changing until next year........Conditions just aren't there this year folks.


Well yeah it's an El Nino. Next year maybe if the El Nino is gone by then.


Next year will probably be a strong La Nina year as that usually follows super El Nino. That means you're likely to have a very powerful Atlantic hurricane season, maybe on par with 2005 to make up for the last 3 years being so quiet.
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Re: Re:

#107 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:18 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I don't blame wxman for saying "next". That's the theme of 2015. I don't see anything changing until next year........Conditions just aren't there this year folks.


Well yeah it's an El Nino. Next year maybe if the El Nino is gone by then.


Next year will probably be a strong La Nina year as that usually follows super El Nino. That means you're likely to have a very powerful Atlantic hurricane season, maybe on par with 2005 to make up for the last 3 years being so quiet.


2005 followed an already extremely busy 2004 El Nino season, so I doubt we'll even come close to that. I think something like 1995/98 or 2003 would likely be the case.

And pending an ASCAT pass telling otherwise as we haven't gotten a direct pass over the eastern quadrant since upgrade, I personally believe this is stronger than satellite estimates. If you watch a longer loop you'll notice how the inner-circulation low clouds seem to be spinning faster than the outer, whereas earlier they were about the same speed. This is probably a tropical storm, or at slightly stronger than the official intensity. (Unfortunately the site is down so I have no idea when the next passes will be, or how close they will be.)
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Re:

#108 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:36 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I don't blame wxman for saying "next". That's the theme of 2015. I don't see anything changing until next year........Conditions just aren't there this year folks.


I hope he wasn't saying next year yet. As a Pro Met, he would know better than that.
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Re: Re:

#109 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:38 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I don't blame wxman for saying "next". That's the theme of 2015. I don't see anything changing until next year........Conditions just aren't there this year folks.


I hope he wasn't saying next year yet. As a Pro Met, he would know better than that.


Since I am not a Pro Met, I will say it, "next year". And I stand by it :)

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Re: Re:

#110 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:46 pm

Hammy wrote:2005 followed an already extremely busy 2004 El Nino season, so I doubt we'll even come close to that. I think something like 1995/98 or 2003 would likely be the case.


I fully agree. And 2004 was followed by a quite active 2003, which before it was active (for an El Nino also) 2002. I think the Atlantic background state then was going to produce regardless of ENSO because it was so favorable and El Nino's then were only a deterrent rather than in control.

93L has a lot of convection tonight

Image

Still will have to fight off shear
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#111 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:38 pm

This one's only a partial hit, but it did get a chunk of the eastern circulation (pretty much the same part as the earlier Coriolis pass). It only has barbs up to 25 kt, but it is possible that stronger winds exist in closer to the center. Still no way to tell for sure though.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#112 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 17, 2015 12:47 am

Buoy well to the SW of the circulation center is reporting WNW winds of ~15kts so the circulation still seems fairly robust.
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Re: Re:

#113 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 6:56 am

WPBWeather wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I don't blame wxman for saying "next". That's the theme of 2015. I don't see anything changing until next year........Conditions just aren't there this year folks.


I hope he wasn't saying next year yet. As a Pro Met, he would know better than that.


I was saying "next" as it this depression isn't going to do much. However, "next", as far as next year, applies too. The tropics are just too hostile out there.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#114 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:38 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015

The center of the depression can be seen in visible imagery exposed
to the west of what remains of the deep convection, due to about
25 kt of shear over the cyclone as indicated by UW-CIMSS satellite
analyses. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environmental conditions
become even less favorable with time, with the shear forecast to
continue while the cyclone moves into an increasingly dry
environment. These factors should result in slow weakening, and the
NHC forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 36
hours, with dissipation expected in 4 to 5 days.

The initial position of the depression is a little south of that
from the previous advisory, as the partially decoupled low-level
circulation is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. The track
forecast philosophy has not changed, as the weakening cyclone should
move generally northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then
turn west-northwestward as a shallower system. The new NHC track is
in best agreement with the GFS and shallow BAM and lies south of the
multi-model consensus. This forecast is similar to the previous
one updated for the initial position and motion. There are a couple
of alternate scenarios, however. The depression or its remnants
could merge with the disturbance to its east as seen in the UKMET
solution or survive as its own entity a little longer as indicated
by the latest ECMWF forecast. However, the NHC track forecast
continues to favor a solution with a weakening cyclone that remains
separate from the disturbance to the east and dissipates by 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.1N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.8N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.8N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 19.5N 49.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 20.5N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 54.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#115 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 17, 2015 1:40 pm

This one is going to slowly wind down as shear has taken hold

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#116 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
500 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015

The depression remains poorly organized, with the center still
exposed to the west of the deep convection. A few bursts of
convection have been trying to redevelop closer to the center, but
the 20 to 25 kt of shear is keeping the convection more than a
degree from the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25
kt based on ASCAT data from earlier today. The depression should
continue to slowly spin down due to shear and dry air in the mid and
upper levels. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in 24
to 36 hours, although timing when deep convection will dissipate is
highly uncertain. The low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate
in 4 to 5 days, in best agreement with the latest GFS forecast.

The motion of the center has been slow and erratic today, with an
has initial motion estimate of 005/03 reflecting a jog to the right
during the past few hours. All of the guidance, even the shallow
BAM, is insistent on a turn back toward the northwest in the next 12
to 24 hours, and that is reflected in the NHC track forecast.
Through 24 hours the NHC track is on the right side of the guidance
to account for the initial motion. After that time, a gradual bend
toward the west-northwest is forecast as the shallow system becomes
steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period the NHC track is
close to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and
motion and is near the shallow BAMS and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.5N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.2N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 19.0N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 20.7N 51.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 22.0N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#117 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:37 pm

This isn't going to last long with that shear over it but its El Nino and this tends to happen in El Ninos

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#118 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:59 pm

as someone mentioned earlier, I don't think next year will be a 2005. That's highly doubtful, but I bet it will be much much more interesting than 2015. At least we had one decent hurricane to track for awhile. After that, it was frustration on top of frustration.
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Re:

#119 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:29 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:as someone mentioned earlier, I don't think next year will be a 2005. That's highly doubtful, but I bet it will be much much more interesting than 2015. At least we had one decent hurricane to track for awhile. After that, it was frustration on top of frustration.


For me, the frustrating part of this year isn't the lack of activity (it's actually above many forecasts) but the consistent model storms from formerly reliable models. I remember the days (basically every year prior to this one) when the Euro would show something out 8-10 days, would almost be a solid guarantee it would happen. Now literally every model has CMC accuracy. :roll:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#120 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015

The depression consists of a circulation of low clouds with a very
small patch of deep convection to the north of the center. Based on
continuity and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is kept
at 25 kt. Given that 20 to 25 kt of shear and dry air are expected
to continue in the vicinity of the depression, weakening is
forecast, and the depression will likely become a remnant low in
about 12 hours or so.

Satellite fixes show a motion toward the north-northwest or 330
degrees at 6 kt. The depression has become a shallow cyclone,
and the subtropical high is forecast to rebuild to the north.
Consequently, the depression or the remnant low is forecast to turn
toward the northwest and then west-northwest. This turn to the left
is the solution provided by most of the track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 45.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 19.7N 48.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 22.0N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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