ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#121 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:57 pm

The way I see it this is getting sheared by 95L as that seems to now have the stronger circulation and not to mention larger one so the 2 systems got too close and 95L is taking over

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1523
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#122 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:26 am

Nice flare-up during DMAX.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114503
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#123 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:44 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

A burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -70C has
developed near and northeast of the center of Tropical Depression
Nine. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 25 kt,
and that will be the initial intensity. The depression continues
to be in an environment of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air
being advected into the system. The dynamical models suggest these
conditions should persist for at least 48 hours, and based on this
the depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure
area in 24 hours or less.

The initial motion remains 330/6. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the depression is expected to steer it or its remnants
generally northwestward for the next several days. The new forecast
track is similar to the previous track, with a little nudge toward
the south during the first 48 hours due to the initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.6N 45.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.3N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 19.2N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1800Z 19.9N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 20.7N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z 22.5N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 24.0N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114503
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#124 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:36 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

After the burst of convection overnight, shear and dry air appear
to be getting the best of the depression, with no deep convection
remaining near the low-level center. If deep convection does not
return, the depression could be declared a remnant low by tonight.
Weakening is forecast as the depression and its remnant low
gradually spin down and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Visible imagery shows the low-level center has been moving toward
the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 295/7. The
initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward shift of the
NHC track forecast this cycle of about a degree. The NHC forecast
shows the shallow cyclone moving generally west-northwestward
through dissipation as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the
north. The official forecast continues to favor the weaker models,
such as the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean, on the left side of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.7N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.2N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1200Z 18.9N 49.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 19.6N 51.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 20.4N 52.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114503
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#125 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 19, 2015 6:16 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Nine is
becoming less organized due to the ongoing 30-35 kt southwesterly
shear. The convection is weaker in both coverage and intensity than
it was 24 hours ago, and the low-level circulation is losing
definition. The shear is expected to continue for at least the next
48 hours, and based on this the depression is expected to degenerate
to a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less.

The initial motion is 290/10. The low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge north of the cyclone should steer it or its remnants toward
the west-northwest until the system dissipates completely in a
couple of days. The new forecast track is an update of the
previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.5N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.5N 52.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1800Z 20.1N 53.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 20.9N 55.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#126 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 19, 2015 8:04 am

Gone...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114503
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#127 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 19, 2015 9:37 am

Well,they say not yet. :)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015

Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of the depression
is losing definition and becoming elongated. In addition, the
system has been without organized convection since around 0700 UTC.
Given the continued influence of strong shear and dry air, the
system is expected to become a remnant low within 12 hours or could
dissipate as soon as later today if the center continues to lose
definition.

The initial motion has been slower over the past few hours, and the
current estimate is 285/05. The low- to mid-level subtropical ridge
north of the cyclone should steer it or its remnants toward the
west-northwest until the system dissipates completely in the next 24
to 36 hours. The new NHC track is close to the previous one adjusted
for the initial position and motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 18.4N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 18.8N 50.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1200Z 19.4N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114503
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

#128 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 19, 2015 3:32 pm

Bye.

REMNANTS OF NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015

Organized deep convection has been absent from the depression for
more than 12 hours, with Dvorak classifications of too weak to
classify at 12Z and 18Z. In addition, visible satellite imagery
shows that the center of the depression has continued to become
elongated today and is no longer well defined. As a result, the
system is no longer a tropical cyclone and this will be the final
advisory. The remnants could continue to produce some intermittent
bursts of convection during the next couple of days.

The motion has been around 290/04 for the past few hours, and the
remnants of the depression should continue to move generally
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1
and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 18.8N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF NINE
12H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20734
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#129 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 19, 2015 7:34 pm

Convection is working its way back towards the center. It's certainly fighting.

Saved loop:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3766
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#130 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 19, 2015 7:53 pm

Low-level flow to the south looks like it's slowing so there's likely not even a closed circulation at this point.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests