ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#41 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:09 am

I am really confused, is there even anything there?

saved loop
Image

Wave ahead of this has a lot more convection.
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#42 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:17 am

I wasn't expecting these overnight developments...
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#43 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:18 am

Alyono wrote:I wasn't expecting these overnight developments...


Or lack there of. Lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#44 Postby boca » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:27 am

It looks like the energy over night transferred a few hundred miles west to the wave in front of 93L,vey weird it just disappeared.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#45 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:34 am

Well, this is interesting...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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#46 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 8:47 am

Very curious what NHC does with this in the next outlook. Whatever happened, all the models but the Euro might be seriously fooled here and the Euro is not completely off the hook as at one point several days ago it was developing this system. The Euro has done poorly this year also but it did drop development of this invest several runs ago but I guess NHC thought it was an outlier. That includes the bullish GFS which may have a HUGE misfire on this calling for an eventual major hurricane in the long-range.

Pretty amazing how this invest goes from something quite impressive to barely anything overnight. :eek: :blowup:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#47 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:06 am

The MDR remains quite hostile toward development for the most part. The models haven't been informed of that fact.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#48 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:21 am

dumb amateur question here: what does 'MDR' stand for exactly? :oops: I know it has to do the tropical development area for the Atlantic basin in general. I'm guessing it stands for "Major Development Region" :?: :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#49 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:25 am

otowntiger wrote:dumb amateur question here: what does 'MDR' stand for exactly? :oops: I know it has to do the tropical development area for the Atlantic basin in general. I'm guessing it stands for "Major Development Region" :?: :D


Close, or good enough. :) Main Development Region.
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#50 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:27 am

Well if the Euro gets this one right then maybe it isn't doing so horribly after all. It also was one of the only models to develop 94L. Maybe 94L wont become anything but at least the Euro saw the potential. Doesn't make its misses look quite so bad.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#51 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:35 am

otowntiger wrote:dumb amateur question here: what does 'MDR' stand for exactly? :oops: I know it has to do the tropical development area for the Atlantic basin in general. I'm guessing it stands for "Major Development Region" :?: :D


The MDR is highlighted by the purple box on the image below. It extends from Africa to the west-central Caribbean (just west of Jamaica):

Image
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#52 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:45 am

Yep, that's 2015 For ya....I'm ready to stick a fork in 2015.......Bring on Non ElNino 2016...I can't wait!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#53 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 14, 2015 10:13 am

Another subsidence-like effect.
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Re:

#54 Postby WPBWeather » Mon Sep 14, 2015 10:15 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Yep, that's 2015 For ya....I'm ready to stick a fork in 2015.......Bring on Non ElNino 2016...I can't wait!


Nope. Plenty more action for 2015.
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Re: Re:

#55 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 14, 2015 10:16 am

WPBWeather wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Yep, that's 2015 For ya....I'm ready to stick a fork in 2015.......Bring on Non ElNino 2016...I can't wait!


Nope. Plenty more action for 2015.


true, plenty of invests, perhaps a depression or two before it gets torn apart.
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#56 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:26 am

and just like that the GFS drops development.

I am not sure it is El Nino to blame for this one. What we just saw was very common in 2013 if you recall and there was no El Nino. Invests would look great only to poof pretty quickly.
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#57 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:42 am

the 12Z GEM has really backed off now on development now. If the GEM is not developing you know something is wrong. NHC development chances should be dropping n the next outlook.

Models aside, I took another look at this invest and there is essentially nothing left.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#58 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:50 pm

A low pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands has produced little shower activity today
due to dry air nearby. However, upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and this system is still
expected to become a tropical depression during the next couple of
days while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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#59 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:07 pm

'I love it when a storm falls apart'
-pseudo Hannibal Smith.
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#60 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:17 pm

93L progresses westward without much changes in intensity...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1745 UTC 11.3N 39.9W T1.0/1.5 93L
14/1145 UTC 11.1N 39.1W T1.0/1.5 93L
14/0545 UTC 10.6N 37.4W T1.5/1.5 93L
13/2345 UTC 10.7N 37.6W T1.0/1.0 93L
13/1815 UTC 10.6N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 93L
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