ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#61 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:19 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 11N39W AT THE BASE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 17N38W. THE
CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED BUT ELONGATED EAST TO WEST ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL CURRENTLY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CENTER. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG EASTERN SHEAR ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE PARKED TO THE NORTH.
THERE IS ALSO SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE CURRENT CHALLENGES IN PLACE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#62 Postby lordkev » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:22 pm

Everyone said the same things about Danny and Erika being dead too, and then they'd make a comeback. Guess we'll see over the next few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#63 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:30 pm

lordkev wrote:Everyone said the same things about Danny and Erika being dead too, and then they'd make a comeback. Guess we'll see over the next few days.

Surely as they have these type of suddent skills to succeed... or fail :) Anyway, us must continue to monitor closely the situation because of the last weeks showed us that sheared systems could produce torrentials rains, muslides etc. So let's be on our guard in spite of the all the pranks of these features :A:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#64 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:02 pm

Several hundred miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands? Does several hundred equal 1200 miles? That's how far Invest 93L is from the Cape Verde Islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#65 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:30 pm

Good Point how far is several hundred miles?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#66 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:43 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Yep, that's 2015 For ya....I'm ready to stick a fork in 2015.......Bring on Non ElNino 2016...I can't wait!


Nope. Plenty more action for 2015.

For the numbers that is.

WeatherGuesser wrote:'I love it when a storm falls apart'
-pseudo Hannibal Smith.

Too bad they all couldn't do that in 2013.

emeraldislenc wrote:Good Point how far is several hundred miles?

To me its around 200-300 miles.
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#67 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:02 pm

How does this invest have a 70/80% chance of development? :lol:

Seriously it is a naked swirl that has been pulverized by dry air and easterly shear. NHC likes continuity but this is one you just want to pull the plug on next outlook.

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Re:

#68 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:How does this invest have a 70/80% chance of development? :lol:

Seriously it is a naked swirl that has been pulverized by dry air and easterly shear. NHC likes continuity but this is one you just want to pull the plug on next outlook.

http://i.imgur.com/YT5eNWM.gif

Looks like this season our friends of the NHC have sometimes some trouble with these type of "yoyo system". We will see...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:35 pm

A low pressure area located about midway between the Cape Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a limited
amount of shower activity. Some development of this low is still
possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally
northwestward. After that time, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#70 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:A low pressure area located about midway between the Cape Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a limited
amount of shower activity. Some development of this low is still
possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally
northwestward. After that time, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


Waouw, they don't speak about any TD now. Wondering if 60% is not too high IMO.
What a wording change from the 2PM TWO. Impressive reverse from the NHC :eek:
A low pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands has produced little shower activity today
due to dry air nearby. However, upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and this system is still
expected to become a tropical depression during the next couple of
days
while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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#71 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:10 pm

I don't think this will develop, and haven't for some time. If it indeed fails to form then I think a serious review of the model upgrades should occur.
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#72 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:10 pm

Killing me softly... dry air killer! Rejected take off for 93L at least for now. :spam:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 10N40W AT THE BASE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 18N40W. LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THESE FEATURES DUE TO DRY AIR NEARBY.
DESPITE THIS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCTIVE FOR SOME TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW AND WAVE MOVE NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS FEATURE IS MEDIUM.
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#73 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:15 pm

Decreasing numbers for 93 L...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 11.4N 40.1W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 11.3N 39.9W T1.0/1.5 93L
14/1145 UTC 11.1N 39.1W T1.0/1.5 93L
14/0545 UTC 10.6N 37.4W T1.5/1.5 93L
13/2345 UTC 10.7N 37.6W T1.0/1.0 93L
13/1815 UTC 10.6N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 93L
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#74 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:21 pm

Is it me or does this seem to be dealing with a ton of easterly shear at the moment?
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Re:

#75 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:30 pm

Hammy wrote:Is it me or does this seem to be dealing with a ton of easterly shear at the moment?


It's not you. It has been getting hammered by this easterly shear. I see the low-level swirl heading north right on the 40W longitude and then turning NW. All the convection is well to the west. Saved loop:

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#76 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:43 am

Decreasing numbers for 93L...


15/1145 UTC 12.2N 41.9W TOO WEAK 93L
15/0545 UTC 12.1N 41.0W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/2345 UTC 11.4N 40.1W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 11.3N 39.9W T1.0/1.5 93L
14/1145 UTC 11.1N 39.1W T1.0/1.5 93L
14/0545 UTC 10.6N 37.4W T1.5/1.5 93L
13/2345 UTC 10.7N 37.6W T1.0/1.0 93L
13/1815 UTC 10.6N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 93L
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#77 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:44 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located about midway between the Cape Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some development of this low is still possible
during the next couple of days while it moves generally
northwestward. After that time, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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#78 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:47 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N41W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N41W THROUGH THE LOW TO 8N41W MOVING W 5-10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 10N40W TO 8N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
16N38W TO 14N43W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#79 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:08 pm

It's barren, but always cool to look at structures of naked swirls

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#80 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:38 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized today in association with a well-defined low pressure
system located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles. Some further development of this low is possible
during the next day or two while it moves generally northwestward.
After that time, however, upper-level winds are expected to become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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