ATL: NINE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#81 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 15, 2015 1:13 pm

It is looking a little better as the day goes on!
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1492
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#82 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 15, 2015 1:33 pm

Looks like it's starting to trek to the NW.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9925
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#83 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 15, 2015 2:01 pm

Improved naked swirl!
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 606
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#84 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:Improved naked swirl!


I think we can upgrade it to scantily clad swirl.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112102
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:45 pm

A low pressure system located about midway between the Cape Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a little more shower
activity than it was yesterday. Some development of this low is
possible during the next day or so before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This low is expected to move generally northwestward at
about 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3082
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#86 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 10:52 pm

look better what we saw on monday Image
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3557
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#87 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:03 pm

93L is getting some convection again, and an earlier ASCAT pass suggested that there is still a weak but closed surface circulation with the invest. If convection can be sustained, it actually shouldn't be too hard to get this classified as a depression.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#88 Postby supercane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:10 am

Development chances back up to 70%.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160504
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Some additional
development of this low is possible, and it could become a tropical
depression before upper-level winds become unfavorable in a day or
so. This low is expected to move generally northwestward at about 10
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent


A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles south-southwest
of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next
few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1492
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#89 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:40 am

At this point I feel that any model run is useless without TC genesis. It looks stationary IMO.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5127
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#90 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:57 am

Up to 90/90.

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized
during the past few hours in association with a low pressure system
located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. If these trends continue, a tropical depression could
form later this morning before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development by tomorrow. This system is expected to
move north-northwestward to northwestward over the central Atlantic
at about 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17897
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#91 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:04 am

Looks like a depression today. No question about the LLC, and now there is convection around the center. Much more impressive than TS Henri last week...
0 likes   

YoshiMike
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 106
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:18 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, MS
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#92 Postby YoshiMike » Wed Sep 16, 2015 8:15 am

Did this system start to recurve when expected or did it move further west than expected? Idk how to check for that I am sorry to ask.
0 likes   
Okay guys, just because I want to BE a meteorologist, want to go to school for meteorology, DOES NOT MAKE ME A METEOROLOGIST. Anything I say about tropical weather is either me learning something new, or is just an opinion and nothing more than that. I can almost guarantee you that I will be wrong about pretty much everything.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112102
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#93 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:36 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 16 2015

Organized convection associated with the area of low pressure in the
central tropical Atlantic has now increased to the point that the
system is considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is 25
kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications and in agreement with
earlier ASCAT wind data. Some southwesterly shear is already
affecting the cyclone, with most of the convection displaced east
and north of the estimated center position. The environment only
becomes less favorable from this point forward, with the shear
forecast to quickly increase in 12 to 24 hours and remain high
through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, the
southwesterly flow aloft will bring dry mid- to upper-level air over
the cyclone. As a result, only slight strengthening is shown in the
NHC forecast following the trend of most of the intensity guidance.
The cyclone is expected to weaken to a remnant low by 72 hours.
After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models show the system weakening
and perhaps opening up into a trough in about 5 days, so the
official forecast shows dissipation at that time.

The initial motion estimate is 340/07, as the depression is moving
into a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This north-
northwestward to northwestward motion should continue for the next
2 to 3 days, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by 96
hours as the shallow cyclone comes under the steering influence of
the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to
the middle of the guidance envelope and near a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 18.5N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 22.0N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z 24.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9231
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#94 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:12 am

Yeap, westerly shear is already affecting the system, with the weak LLC now west of the convection with outflow boundaries nominating the western quadrant, not surprised at all that it is not forecasted to become a TS.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26962
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#95 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:30 am

Looks like Ida will have to wait...
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17897
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#96 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:39 am

Well, this is another quite exciting storm! Shear is already hitting it. Convection is diminishing. Next...
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 422
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

#97 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:30 pm

That didn't take long.

If it had maintained convection a little earlier I suspect we'd have briefly seen a tropical storm out of it for a couple of days, but didn't seem to wanna do that till shear started knocking on the door. I wonder if it will clear out some dry air and enhance the system behind it a little... kind of a banzai desperate last ditch effort to carve out a tiny little favorable niche for a brief window of development amidst the El Nino fueled deluxe industrial tropical storm-shredder.

Still cheering for a brief upgrade. Would further ruin our average ACE but at least get the usually-destructive 'I' name out of the way.

Still far better than 2013, I continue to conclude.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112102
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#98 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:34 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015
500 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015

The satellite presentation of the depression has degraded during
the past few hours, with dry air and southwesterly shear resulting
in the convection become displaced from the low-level center. The
convection itself has not become better organized, and has a rather
linear shape to the east and northeast of the center. The initial
intensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from
SAB. The prospects for the cyclone to strengthen, or even survive,
appear quite poor. The shear is forecast to increase markedly in the
next 12 to 24 hours, and the shear in combination with dry air
should result in the cyclone weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours.
The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by 5 days, in best
agreement with the latest GFS forecast.

The exposed low-level center is located about a degree to the west
of the previous advisory estimate, with an initial motion of
310/07. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward
adjustment to the track forecast this cycle of 1 to 2 degrees. The
new NHC forecast lies between the shallow BAM and to the left of
the rest of the model guidance in the short term given the sheared
nature of the system and its current motion. After that time, the
NHC forecast is close to the HWRF and GEFS ensemble mean and still
left of the multi-model consensus aids. Given the current
disorganized state of the depression, the track forecast is quite
uncertain through the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 15.2N 44.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 15.9N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.0N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 20.5N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 21.5N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tatertawt24
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:57 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#99 Postby tatertawt24 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 5:40 pm

:lol: Gotta love the Atlantic. "No hurricane for you!"
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
abajan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3223
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#100 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:20 pm

tatertawt24 wrote::lol: Gotta love the Atlantic. "No hurricane for you!"
You need to lay off watching Seinfeld reruns. :lol:
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest