ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

94L INVEST 150913 1200 22.5N 96.5W ATL 20 1010

Appears to be the system in the western Gulf.

Edit: Link to the Talking Tropics thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117523

[TheStormExpert]

Could only imagine what would become of this if the shear was non-existent in the GoM.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Glad to see the NHC designate Invest 94L. Disturbances at the tail-end of frontal boundaries over the Gulf of Mexico in mid-September should always be watched, and this is the general idea the ECMWF had been hinting at for numerous runs. Wind shear is high right now, but the GFS shows some semblance of an upper-level high taking shape before 94L moves into the Mexico coastline. I'd give it a 30% chance of development.

[Sanibel]

It's weird but sometimes it takes a front to compress the tropical 'juice' and a system forms.

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely expect a mention of this at 2pm in the TWO. I'd guess somewhere around 30/30 for chances of development as well.

[xcool22]

ecmwf was rite

[gatorcane]

There is spin there for sure, but I guess it may move into Mexico before it gets a chance?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to be staying south of the damaging shear but that could be in its favor

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather has developed in association with a
weak low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development over the next few days before becoming
unfavorable by late Wednesday. Little movement is expected during
the next couple of days, followed by a slow motion toward the west
or west-northwest on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Hurricaneman]

I think if this can stay where it is relative to the shear it could become a moderate tropical storm so those around Veracruz need to keep an eye on the progress of 94L as its got a decent structure to it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

Recon being called to an area with 20% potential? Interesting.

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't be surprised if it deepens more than any model had a clue on that it doesn't just sit there!

[Hurricaneman]

Recon being called to an area with 20% potential? Interesting.

Its called being conservative its probably got more like a 60% chance IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Recon being called to an area with 20% potential? Interesting.

Its called being conservative its probably got more like a 60% chance IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I've also seen Recon fly into some pretty pathetic systems over the past several years here in the Atlantic, though this is not one of them IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The low-level circulation appears to be closed based on surface observations.

[NDG]

I don't think it was ever a question that a disturbance could form on the tail end of the frontal boundary, the question towards the Euro was that it was developing the system into a Cat 3 hurricane in its long range forecast which little by little started dropping.
The GFS at times did developed a weak area of low pressure instead of the Euro's crazy solution.

SHIPS analyzed shear to be at 31 knots over 94L at 18z, and it forecasts shear not to drop below 20 knots over the next 72 hrs.
If it can stay offshore over the next 24-72 hrs it may become a TD or maybe even a weak TS but with ridging building over TX the next few days I would expect it to move inland and even if it stays offshore northerly shear is forecasted to move over the western GOM.

[Extratropical94]

94L INVEST 150913 1800 22.1N 96.5W ATL 20 1010

[Hurricaneman]

I don't think it was ever a question that a disturbance could form on the tail end of the frontal boundary, the question towards the Euro was that it was developing the system into a Cat 3 hurricane in its long range forecast which little by little started dropping.
The GFS at times did developed a weak area of low pressure instead of the Euro's crazy solution.

SHIPS analyzed shear to be at 31 knots over 94L at 18z, and it forecasts shear not to drop below 20 knots over the next 72 hrs.
If it can stay offshore over the next 24-72 hrs it may become a TD or maybe even a weak TS but with ridging building over TX the next few days I would expect it to move inland and even if it stays offshore northerly shear is forecasted to move over the western GOM.

shear looks lower than analyzed based on the look of it also is moving slowly SE

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

shear still very strong over the area.

[xironman]

By Thursday it finally quiets down, but that is a long ways away.