ATL: IDA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: IDA - Post Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:27 am

95L INVEST 150914 1200 8.3N 18.5W ATL 20 1012

Thread that is at Talking Tropics for this area.

posting.php?mode=edit&f=31&p=2476774
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:28 am

Latest GFS shows a TD or weak TS at best.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:00 pm

Strong feelings of déjà vu :lol:

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#4 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:16 pm

this off Africa?
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#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:20 pm

floridasun78 wrote:this off Africa?


Yes, this is the wave that moved off the African continent yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:51 pm

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about 500 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of
organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next
few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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#7 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:23 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W FROM 09N17N. CONVECTION IS
INCREASING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM AT THE BASE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N20W.
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW PRES IS DRAWING DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#8 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:48 pm

So this one will go out to sea or iis it too early to say that?
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#9 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:13 pm

This looks like it has been organizing nicely today

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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#10 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:45 pm

Looks like this invest has a better chance than 93L. 93L is clearing the SAL for this wave.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:36 pm

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about 500 miles south-southeast of the southernmost Cape
Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some
signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the
next few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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#12 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:14 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015


A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 17N21W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
09N21W
...MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 18W-30W. DRY AIR PREVAILS IN THE
NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA.
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:35 pm

This invest is looking good for now:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:50 pm

For now being below 10N helps it maintain the moisture feed from monsoon trough/ITCZ and also avoids the high shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 10:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:For now being below 10N helps it maintain the moisture feed from monsoon trough/ITCZ and also avoids the high shear.

Absolutely, agree with you. A good spot, maybe a window of opportunity given its location.
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#17 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:54 am

Up to 50/80

A broad low pressure system is located about 375 miles south of the
southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a
tropical depression over the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#18 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:11 am

Mentionned as a special feature...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR 9N22W
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N23W THROUGH THE LOW
TO 8N22W MOVING W-SW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. THE ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#19 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:38 am

95L is racing...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/1145 UTC 9.3N 24.0W T1.0/1.0 95L
15/0545 UTC 8.9N 21.6W T1.0/1.0 95L
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:38 pm

A broad low pressure system is located about 350 miles south of the
southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to show signs of organization, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a
tropical depression over the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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