ATL: IDA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Probably see just another short-lived depression out of this as well, the Euro is backing off further and barely developing anything. And all that talk earlier in the week of long trackers...

I think we can guarantee at this point that 2015 will be the first year since 1994 with no September hurricanes.

[Hurricaneman]

Probably see just another short-lived depression out of this as well, the Euro is backing off further and barely developing anything. And all that talk earlier in the week of long trackers...

I think we can guarantee at this point that 2015 will be the first year since 1994 with no September hurricanes.

I agree nothing comes of this but the MDR has been busy east of 50W which was a surprise to me

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hammy]

Probably see just another short-lived depression out of this as well, the Euro is backing off further and barely developing anything. And all that talk earlier in the week of long trackers...

I think we can guarantee at this point that 2015 will be the first year since 1994 with no September hurricanes.

I agree nothing comes of this but the MDR has been busy east of 50W which was a surprise to me

It has been quite busy for being El Nino, especially the strength of the waves coming off, which I think could be a good indicator of next year (2015's were stronger than 14, which were stronger than 13.) But there is far too much shear at the moment due to El Nino for much more to come of this season and we'll probably squeak out maybe one more weak storm before the month ends.

El Nino is basically running over the Atlantic like a lawnmower.

[weathernerdguy]

This is probably one of the strongest wave that have came off Africa so far this year..

[cycloneye]

Despite the apparent favorable environment, the broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has not developed into a tropical cyclone as anticipated.
The system, however, still has the potential to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are
expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[gatorcane]

Convection looks to be building closer to the center...appears to be organizing.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[weathernerdguy]

This is a large system, right?

[dexterlabio]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought El Nino has no negative effects on tropical waves coming off Africa. In 2013 we were all waiting for long trackers but the problem was the quality of tropical waves. I remember a pro-met pointing out that cooler SST in western Indian Ocean might be the culprit. This year the TW's are all promising until they encounter Nino-driven conditions near the Caribbean and die. While one might think that El Nino kills every chance of development in the Atlantic, it is in a way aiding a healthier African tropical wave train because of heat build-up in the western IO. Once this El Nino is over and the warmth in the western IO remains then I think we can see the Atlantic having a huge comeback. Again, there's still no solid evidence regarding the relationship of African tropical waves and SST in western Indian ocean so this is all amateur hindsight.

[Hurricaneman]

This one is becoming the better circulation than TD9 and shearing it and also taking the moisture and convergence from it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Extratropical94]

Shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area located
about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
more concentrated during the past 24 hours. Conditions appear
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two while the system moves toward
the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are
expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[bahamaswx]

Looking good right now. Huge envelope, nice banding, lots of convection over the coc.

[tolakram]

I see the overnight Euro run has this as a hurricane again near the end. On, off, on, off, what a horrible year.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues
to show signs of organization. Conditions appear favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
day or two while the system moves toward the west-northwest at 10 to
15 mph. After that time, conditions are expected to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[EquusStorm]

Looks like an incipient depression this morning. Or at least almost. But looks a lot healthier than the actual (naked swirl of a) tropical depression ahead of it.

[wxman57]

It's already a depression - it just hasn't been classified by the NHC yet. Clear LLC, convection over center, lots of banding. Much more of a TD than Nine is. It's no threat to any land areas.

[weathernerdguy]

How strong do the pro mets think this will get?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure over the
tropical eastern Atlantic has acquired sufficient organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center appears
embedded beneath a relatively small cluster of deep convection, but
convective banding is also increasing to the west and north. The
initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB and recent ASCAT data.

The depression is located near the southwestern edge of a mid-level
anticyclone, giving the cyclone an initial motion of 285/8 kt. The
anticyclone is expected to move westward in tandem with the
depression over the next couple of days, keeping it on a general
west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period. By days 4
and 5, however, there is significant uncertainty in the track
forecast. The GFS and GFDL show the cyclone feeling the influence
of an amplifying deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic, which
turns the depression northward. The ECMWF and UKMET, on the other
hand, keep the ridge as the dominant influence and continue a
west-northwestward motion. Due to the large spread in the guidance,
the official forecast shows the cyclone slowing down considerably by
days 4 and 5, and is a little west of the model consensus aids at
those times.

The environment looks conducive for at least gradual strengthening
during the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures are warm,
vertical shear should remain generally low, and environmental
moisture patterns appear favorable for at least the next two days.
Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models show the cyclone
threading the needle beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, with
mid-level dry air possibly getting into the western part of the
cyclone's circulation. This pattern makes the intensity forecast
complicated because hostile upper-level winds won't be too far away,
and the ultimate strength of the cyclone will depend heavily on its
eventual track. For now, the NHC official forecast shows only
gradual strengthening through day 4, more or less in line with the
SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 13.1N 36.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 13.4N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 14.2N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 15.2N 40.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 16.4N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 18.3N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 20.0N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

This one may have some meat.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 7m7 minutes ago
As TD9 decays, another one is born (10). 10 has some shot to b Atlc's 1st #hurricane formation of Sep- #Ida tomorrow?

[AutoPenalti]

TD Ten seems to head west after 96hrs as the ridge builds back up again, and could head towards favorable environment.

[Ntxw]

It certainly looks good and compact. If it can keep storms near the center this is looks more than just a depression.