ATL: IDA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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#141 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:44 am

I agree, I really doubt that Ida is still a TS, she better find that pocket of better UL environment real soon or she will drown in the shear.

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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#142 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:50 am

Still a TS.

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015

Ida's cloud pattern has deteriorated since yesterday, and the
upper-level outflow is very disrupted due to shear. The center of
the cyclone has been placed in the middle of a couple of low cloud
swirls, and to the west of a small area of deep convection. Based on
continuity, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt, however, a
recent partial ASCAT suggests that the winds could be lower.

Both ECMWF and GFS SHIPS intensity models indicate that the shear
has peaked, and a gradual relaxation should soon begin. However, it
will take 36 to 48 hours for the shear to be low enough to favor
re-strengthening. On this basis, only a small increase in intensity
is forecast beyond that time. This is consistent with the previous
forecast and the intensity consensus model.

The cyclone, as anticipated, has become well embedded in the base
of an upper-level trough and is drifting eastward or 090 degrees at
4 kt. Most of the global models lift the trough out and keep the
cyclone moving very slowly within weak steering currents for the
next day or two. After that time, the subtropical ridge is forecast
to build over the Atlantic, and this flow pattern will force the
cyclone to move toward the north and then to the north-northwest.
For the next 3 days or so, the guidance is in good agreement showing
a northward turn. The model spread increases after four days, but
the general trend is to keep the cyclone moving slowly while is
trapped south of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is in the
middle of the track envelope and is very similar to the previous
one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 20.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 20.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 21.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 23.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 25.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 25.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#143 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 23, 2015 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015

Ida's cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the day.
The center of the cyclone is located to the west of a small area of
deep convection, and the initial intensity is still estimated at 35
kt.

Most of the global models indicate that a gradual relaxation of the
shear should begin in a day or two, resulting in a little more
favorable environment for Ida to re-strengthen. On this basis, the
NHC forecast calls for a small increase in intensity beyond 48
hours. This is consistent with the previous forecast and the
intensity consensus model.

Ida has been drifting generally eastward embedded within the
base of a mid- to upper-level trough. This trough is expected to
lift out and keep the cyclone moving very slowly toward the
northeast during the next 24 hours or so, while embedded within
weak steering currents. After that time, Ida is forecast to turn to
the north and north-northwest as a subtropical ridge gradually
replaces the trough. The NHC forecast has changed very little from
the previous one, and is very close to multi-model consensus.

One interesting change is that the ECMWF and GFS models had been
forecasting Ida to linger for a week or more over the Atlantic as a
strong tropical cyclone. However, the most recent runs of both
models now show a much weaker system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.9N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 22.5N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 24.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 25.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#144 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:28 pm

Image

ASCAT shows Ida still TS intensity.
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#145 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015

Ida is not a well-organized tropical storm. The center is on the
western side of a small area of deep convection, with a few banding
features noted in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The
initial intensity remains 35 kt since a recent partial ASCAT pass
showed maximum winds of 30-35 kt.

The storm continues to experience moderate-to-strong westerly shear.
While the shear could relax somewhat over the next couple of days,
very dry air is present in the mid- to upper-levels near and to the
northwest of the cyclone, which could prevent Ida from fully taking
advantage of the more favorable shear conditions for a few days.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one and
the intensity consensus. At longer range, some of the models are
showing a resumption of the stronger shear, with only the GFDL
forecasting significant intensification. Overall, the trend has
been toward a less favorable environment at day 5, and the NHC
intensity forecast is reduced at that time.

Ida is moving eastward at about 4 kt while it remains embedded
within the base of a mid- to upper-level trough. This trough is
expected to lift out tomorrow with a ridge rebuilding over the
central Atlantic. This pattern should cause the storm to move to
the north by late Thursday, followed by a turn to the northwest on
Friday around the ridge. After that time, another mid-latitude
trough is expected to affect the cyclone. This feature, however, is
not as deep as the last trough, and with the vertical representation
of Ida being shallower in the model fields, much of the guidance is
only show Ida stalling for a short amount of time rather than
turning with the trough. Another ridge builds in by late weekend,
which then forces Ida to move west-northwestward and westward by
early next week. The guidance has shifted notably westward on this
cycle in response to this pattern, and the NHC forecast is shifted
that direction at long range, but is still pretty far east of the
model consensus due to continuity concerns.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 19.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 20.3N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 21.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 21.8N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 22.7N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 24.2N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 24.5N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 24.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#146 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:39 pm

Well we finally see the NHC track bend to the west though the intensity only gets up to 50K:

Plus another ridge builds in over the Central Atlantic by the weekend and that could propel it or Ida's remants even further westward:

Snippet from 11pmEST disco:
"Another ridge builds in by late weekend,
which then forces Ida to move west-northwestward and westward by
early next week."

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#147 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:53 pm

I suppose we can't completely put Bermuda in the clear yet from Ida, but I think the chance of this getting close is very low at this point. Its best chance by far is to be a pure fish IMO. Any other opinions on this?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#148 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:57 pm

LarryWx wrote:I suppose we can't completely put Bermuda in the clear yet from Ida, but I think the chance of this getting close is very low at this point. Its best chance by far is to be a pure fish IMO. Any other opinions on this?


The GFS a few days ago had this almost making it to New England, supposing it doesn't dissipate there may be a 50/50 chance of Bermuda getting something. It'll certainly be interesting to track in the coming week despite being weak, if it holds together.
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#149 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 24, 2015 5:00 am

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015

Ida's low-level center is exposed to the west of a relatively small
cluster of deep convection due to 25 kt of west-northwesterly shear.
By themselves, satellite intensity estimates would no longer
support Ida's status as a tropical storm, but the partial ASCAT
passes from last evening had just enough wind that I'm hesitant to
downgrade the system to a tropical depression just yet. Vertical
shear is expected to decrease only slightly during the next couple
of days, and along with abundant mid-level dry air, the environment
will not be particularly favorable for strengthening. The GFDL,
which brings Ida to hurricane strength in 4 days, remains an outlier
and is discounted as a reasonable solution. Conversely, the ECMWF
and GFS global models show Ida weakening as a result of the
unfavorable environment, with the GFS even showing the cyclone
degenerating to a trough by day 4 or 5. Because of these more
believable scenarios, the NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one at the end of the forecast period, and
overall is very close to the Florida State Superensemble.

Ida had been moving east-southeastward during the past 12 hours,
but the current motion estimate is 090/5 kt. Ida remains located
within the base of a mid-tropospheric trough, but it should become
detached from the trough during the next 24 hours and turn
northward as low- to mid-level ridging develops over the eastern
Atlantic. Now that the global models have been trending toward a
weaker system by days 3 through 5, they show Ida becoming blocked
by a surface high over the north Atlantic and moving westward at a
faster forward speed by the end of the forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than and southwest of
the previous forecast at days 4 and 5 to account for the model
trends, but it is otherwise very similar before those times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 19.6N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 20.2N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 20.8N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 21.6N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 22.5N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 23.8N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 23.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#150 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:49 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015

There has been no significant change in the satellite presentation
of the cyclone. Ida is a sheared system and consists of a broad
circulation with a cyclonically curved convective band around the
eastern side. Based on a recent ASCAT pass the initial intenisty
has been lowered to 30 kt. The hostile shear environment will likely
continue today, but both the operational SHIPS and the experimental
SHIPS based on ECMWF fields lower the shear allowing for some
restrengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little
change in intensity during the next day or two, and some minor
increase of the winds after that time.

Ida has begun to move toward the north-northeast at 4 kt. The
cyclone will become completely detached from the mid-level trough in
about 12 to 24 hours, and will be slowly steered toward the north
and north-northwest by the flow surrounding a developing subtropical
ridge. After that time, a stronger ridge will force Ida to turn
westward with some increase in forward speed. Track guidance is very
consistent with this westward turn, however, by then, the status of
Ida is highly uncertain. Ida could still be a tropical cyclone as
indicated in the NHC forecast or it will be degenerating into a
trough as indicated by the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 20.2N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.8N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 23.5N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 24.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 24.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#151 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 24, 2015 3:43 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015

Ida is a sheared system and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds
with a comma-shaped convective band to the east of the center. Since
there has been no change in the satellite presentation, the initial
intensity is kept at 30 kt. Global models no longer forecasting a
decrease in the shear, and in general, all models are showing a
gradual decay of the cyclone. On this basis, the NHC forecast
maintains Ida as a depression through the forecast period.

Ida has been moving toward the north at about 4 knots. The mid-
tropospheric trough, which was affecting Ida, is gradually moving
eastward away from the cyclone, and the subtropical ridge has begun
to develop to the north of the cyclone. This pattern will favor a
north-northwest to northwest track during the next 48 hours. After
that time, the cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will
likely move westward as it is steered by the low-level easterly
flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.2N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 21.9N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 25.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#152 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 24, 2015 3:46 pm

Hammy wrote:http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/10L.IDA/ssmi/scat/wind_barbs/20150924.0036.metop-b.ASCAT_IR.wind.10LIDA.2048_045pc_35kts-1005mb_198N_463W_sft20150924_0000.jpg

ASCAT shows Ida still TS intensity.


There are no 35kt winds on that graphic. The blue winds are all 25 or 30 kts.

Finally, the NHC has conceded that Ida will not regain TS strength. Odds are they'll declare it a remnant low tomorrow and stop advisories.
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#153 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 24, 2015 4:28 pm

At the start of advisories the NHC said that shear will decrease within a day, then changed it to a few days but now they say it will remain unfavorable. Shows how hard it is to forecast shear.
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#154 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 24, 2015 8:33 pm

Right now it looks like the shear is on the decrease, can Ida take advantage?

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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#155 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:40 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015

The center of Ida, like most of the Atlantic tropical cyclones this
year at some point, is exposed to southwest of a bursting area
of deep convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in
accordance with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. A combination
of shear and dry air aloft is expected to persist near Ida for the
next few days. These conditions are forecast to cause the cyclone
to gradually weaken. Although the cyclone could move into a
slightly more favorable environment at long range, there isn't
likely to be much left of Ida to take advantage of the conditions.
The latest NHC forecast is close to the model consensus for the
first few days, then is below that aid at days 3 and 4, leaning more
heavily on the weaker solutions of the HWRF, GFS and ECMWF models.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF now show Ida opening up into a trough by
day 5, and the official forecast follows that trend.

Ida is moving erratically north-northwestward at about 4 knots. The
depression should turn northwestward tomorrow and head in that
general direction for a couple of days due to a weak subtropical
ridge forming over the central Atlantic. After that time, the
cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will likely move
to the west or west-southwest as it is steered by a strong low-level
ridge. The guidance has shifted leftward, which makes sense for a
weaker cyclone, and the official NHC prediction follows suit.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 21.3N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 22.8N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 23.7N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 24.4N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 24.3N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 24.0N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#156 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:04 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015

...IDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 45.3W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 45.3 West. Ida is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest
with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ida is
expected to become a remnant low over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#157 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 25, 2015 6:42 am

Do I need to remind everyone how much the Euro busted with Ida? Even to some degree the GFS but not as bad as the Euro that for days it was showing Ida to become a Major Hurricane. As if the model would forget that there's a strong El Niño in its long range forecast.
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#158 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:51 am

Ida is on her last legs. Shear is blowing away the last leftover convection to the east. Bones should be making an appearance soon.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#159 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:40 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015

Not much has changed today and resilient Ida is still there. It
consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a curved convective
band to the east of the center. The initial intensity is estimated
at 25 kt. The overall circulation is expected to decay as the
depression continues to move within an environment of high shear and
dry air. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
in about 24 hours or sooner.

The center has been moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. A
high pressure system is forecast to develop over the North Atlantic,
and this high will force the shallow depression, or its remnants, to
move toward the northwest, and then, as the high to the north
intensifies, a sharp turn to the west or southwest should occur
Sunday night or Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 24.6N 48.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 23.5N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.6N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#160 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:51 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015

The depression consists of a swirl of low clouds with pulsing
convection in the eastern part of the circulation. Although Ida
isn't very impressive on satellite imagery, the latest ASCAT data
showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant
of the cyclone. Since the convective structure has degraded since
the ASCAT pass and the Dvorak estimates are low, the initial wind
speed is conservatively set to 30 kt.

Ida is still forecast, albeit with low confidence, to decay into a
remnant low in 24 h while the cyclone remains in a high shear, low
moisture environment during the next day or so. Global and
regional model guidance, however, are starting to suggest that Ida
will encounter a more favorable environment in 2-3 days with less
shear and warmer waters, with only the GFS model now showing
dissipation. In fact, most of the guidance brings the cyclone back
to tropical storm strength by day 5. I'd like to see more
consistent guidance before forecasting that solution, but as a
compromise, the new prediction calls for Ida to regenerate as
tropical depression, but with limited strengthening. While the new
forecast is above the previous one, it is below almost all of the
guidance except for the GFS.

Ida is moving faster toward the north-northwest tonight at about 7
kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward tomorrow,
westward on Sunday and then west-southwestward while Ida moves
around a strengthening mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.
Models have come into better agreement on this scenario, although
the ECMWF remains a bit of a slow outlier. The official forecast is
shifted southwestward, but lies on the northern side of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 22.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 23.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 24.3N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z 24.3N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z 23.7N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 22.7N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 22.1N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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