ATL: IDA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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gatorcane
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#161 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:58 pm

Ida looks like it will be with us even longer - she just won't die:

Image
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#162 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:32 pm

Starting to remind me of Kyle 2002.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#163 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:34 pm

how long have IDA been out their?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#164 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:54 pm

floridasun78 wrote:how long have IDA been out their?


9/18. So, if she exists for 10+ days like the Euro shows, she will have been around for 17+ days. She's gotta to be respected for her survival skills. Is she going to turn out to be this year's Fred of 2009?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#165 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Sep 26, 2015 4:14 am

Dissipation is no longer forecast, all be it low confidence:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015

Despite continued westerly shear and abundant dry air in the middle
and upper levels of the atmosphere, Ida continues to produce a
persistent cluster of deep convection to the east of its center.
The intensity remains 30 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening.

Ida's future during the next several days is highly uncertain.
SHIPS environmental parameters suggest that the worst might be over.
The vertical shear that has been affecting the cyclone could
actually decrease gradually during the next couple of days, and sea
surface temperatures are forecast to remain at least 29 degrees
Celsius. Therefore, it is not a sure bet that the system will cease
producing organized deep convection, which is a necessary condition
for the cyclone to be declared a remnant low. A more likely
scenario would be that the circulation becomes elongated, the center
becomes ill defined, and Ida dissipates. Therefore, the NHC
official forecast no longer shows Ida becoming a remnant low,
keeping it as a depression for the next five days. However, Ida
could also dissipate at any time if it no longer shows signs of a
well-defined center of circulation, as is suggested by the GFS in a
couple of days. But, it bears repeating: this is a very uncertain
forecast.

Ida is being steered northwestward, or 325/7 kt, by a low-level
ridge to its northeast. However, the depression is approaching a
break in the ridge, and a stronger ridge is expected to slide
eastward from New England to the north Atlantic over the next few
days. This pattern change should cause Ida to slow down during the
next 24 hours and then move westward or west-southwestward at a
faster speed during the remainder of the forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, except
that it is a little faster beyond 48 hours to be close to the
various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 23.4N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 24.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 24.4N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 22.6N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 22.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 23.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#166 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 8:38 am

I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss Ida as some of us S2Kers have. IMO It bears watching until it has dissipated. I always recall how poorly organized the infamous Andrew in '92 was until it got a new lease on life:

Andrew Wikipedia Article

1992 was an El Niño year too, albeit not as strong as the current one. I'm not suggesting that Ida will be another Andrew but we shouldn't let our guard down prematurely.

A word to the wise.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#167 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:20 pm

000
WTNT45 KNHC 261436
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015

There continues to be little change in the satellite appearance of
Ida with the low-level center exposed to the west of a persistent
area of deep convection. The circulation of the system remains
large and well defined. Recent ASCAT data suggest that the initial
intensity is still 30 kt, which is a little higher than the Dvorak
classifications.

The strong westerly shear that has been affecting Ida during the
past several days is expected to lessen by tomorrow. Consequently,
the SHIPS guidance shows the system gaining strength. However,
nearly all of the dynamical models show little, if any,
strengthening of Ida. The official forecast continues to prefer
the solution provided by the dynamical models due to the continued
influence of dry air near the system. It is also possible that the
depression could dissipate in a few days when a frontal boundary
stalls just to the north of Ida, which could cause the circulation
to become elongated or open into a trough. Given the various
scenarios provided by the guidance, this forecast is quite
uncertain.

Ida is still moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt, but it is
expected to turn west-northwestward by tonight and southwestward by
late tomorrow as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of
the system. A general westward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected beyond that time. Although there is some
spread in the guidance, most of the models agree on this general
theme. A small northward adjustment was made to the previous
forecast track beyond 48 hours, to come into better agreement with
the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#168 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:22 pm

Image how far west will it go
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#169 Postby fci » Sat Sep 26, 2015 4:35 pm

abajan wrote:I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss Ida as some of us S2Kers have. IMO It bears watching until it has dissipated. I always recall how poorly organized the infamous Andrew in '92 was until it got a new lease on life:

Andrew Wikipedia Article

1992 was an El Niño year too, albeit not as strong as the current one. I'm not suggesting that Ida will be another Andrew but we shouldn't let our guard down prematurely.

A word to the wise.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Never will forget Andrew down here in South Florida but any comparison between this and Andrew is kind of far-fetched in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#170 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 26, 2015 4:46 pm

000
WTNT45 KNHC 262032
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015

There continues to be little change associated with Ida. A small
area of pulsing convection is lingering to the east of the exposed
low-level center. The circulation remains well organized, however,
and mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. Earlier ASCAT
data indicated that winds were in the 25-30 kt range, and since the
cyclone has not changed much since then, the initial intensity is
held at 30 kt.

The models are quite divergent on the future intensity of Ida. The
SHIPS model suggests that the depression could strengthen since the
shear is expected to lessen during the next 2-3 days. Conversely,
most of the dynamical models show little, if any, strengthening
likely due in part to the abundant dry air near the cyclone. In
fact, the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models show Ida's
circulation becoming elongated or degenerating into a trough within
the next few days when a frontal boundary stalls just to the north
of the system. The official forecast follows the previous couple of
advisories in maintaining Ida as a depression through the period,
however, it would not be surprising if Ida dissipates before then
like the GFS and ECMWF models suggest.

Ida is gradually turning to the left as predicted, and the latest
initial motion estimate is now 320/7 kt. A continued turn toward
the west and then southwest is predicted during the next
couple of days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of
the cyclone. Thereafter, Ida, or its remnants, is expected to move
generally westward at a slightly faster forward speed. Although
there remains some spread in the guidance, most of the models agree
on this general theme. The new official track forecast is a little
faster than the previous one and remains close to the consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 24.4N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 24.8N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 24.6N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.1N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 23.6N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 23.4N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.9N 58.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 24.2N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#171 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 4:58 pm

abajan wrote:I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss Ida as some of us S2Kers have. IMO It bears watching until it has dissipated. I always recall how poorly organized the infamous Andrew in '92 was until it got a new lease on life:

Andrew Wikipedia Article

1992 was an El Niño year too, albeit not as strong as the current one. I'm not suggesting that Ida will be another Andrew but we shouldn't let our guard down prematurely.

A word to the wise.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


For starters, 1992 was not an El Nino year.

Second of all, even if Ida pulled an Andrew, does that make the season memorable to track? No. One good system does not make a season.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#172 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:00 pm

fci wrote:Never will forget Andrew down here in South Florida but any comparison between this and Andrew is kind of far-fetched in my opinion.


Yeah, there's a tendency here to compare every disorganized system in the Atlantic to Andrew because Andrew was once disorganized. Nobody ever compares them to the 99.9% of other disorganized Atlantic systems that amount to nothing.

(Kind of similar to how every disorganized system in the Western Gulf will supposedly ramp up into Humberto).
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#173 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:21 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
abajan wrote:I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss Ida as some of us S2Kers have. IMO It bears watching until it has dissipated. I always recall how poorly organized the infamous Andrew in '92 was until it got a new lease on life:

Andrew Wikipedia Article

1992 was an El Niño year too, albeit not as strong as the current one. I'm not suggesting that Ida will be another Andrew but we shouldn't let our guard down prematurely.

A word to the wise.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


For starters, 1992 was not an El Nino year.

Second of all, even if Ida pulled an Andrew, does that make the season memorable to track? No. One good system does not make a season.


If Ida pulled off an Andrew, it would be MEMORABLE!!! Not hoping for it at all :double:
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#174 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:20 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
abajan wrote:I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss Ida as some of us S2Kers have. IMO It bears watching until it has dissipated. I always recall how poorly organized the infamous Andrew in '92 was until it got a new lease on life:

Andrew Wikipedia Article

1992 was an El Niño year too, albeit not as strong as the current one. I'm not suggesting that Ida will be another Andrew but we shouldn't let our guard down prematurely.

A word to the wise.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


For starters, 1992 was not an El Nino year.

Second of all, even if Ida pulled an Andrew, does that make the season memorable to track? No. One good system does not make a season.


"For starters, 1992 was not an El Nino year." Really? According to my info (from several sources online), an El Niño event did indeed occur in at least part of that year.

"... if Ida pulled an Andrew, does that make the season memorable to track?" Who said anything about making the season memorable to track? I simply stated that we shouldn't let our guard down until Ida has dissipated.

Seems like my post has aroused something. I'm not sure what though. Hmm ...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#175 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:33 pm

abajan wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
abajan wrote:I wouldn't be so fast to dismiss Ida as some of us S2Kers have. IMO It bears watching until it has dissipated. I always recall how poorly organized the infamous Andrew in '92 was until it got a new lease on life:

Andrew Wikipedia Article

1992 was an El Niño year too, albeit not as strong as the current one. I'm not suggesting that Ida will be another Andrew but we shouldn't let our guard down prematurely.

A word to the wise.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


For starters, 1992 was not an El Nino year.

Second of all, even if Ida pulled an Andrew, does that make the season memorable to track? No. One good system does not make a season.


"For starters, 1992 was not an El Nino year." Really? According to my info (from several sources online), an El Niño event did indeed occur in at least part of that year.

"... if Ida pulled an Andrew, does that make the season memorable to track?" Who said anything about making the season memorable to track? I simply stated that we shouldn't let our guard down until Ida has dissipated.

Seems like my post has aroused something. I'm not sure what though. Hmm ...


The El Nino event of 1991-92 had dissipated by the time had rolled around as indicated by CPC SSTv4 dataset.

My point was that I feel if Ida even pulled an Andrew, tracking the 2015 Atlantic season wasn't worth too much energy, as it was otherwise dull, and that this point one can let their guard down in terms of expecting intense hurricanes on the season and the storm. But note the disclaimer below.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#176 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:46 pm

@Yellow Ivan

Okay, I stand corrected about the '92 El Niño and I better understand your point about this season.

Cheers
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#177 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:54 pm

It would be nice go get an ASCAT pass over the system about now given that nice convective blowup. I wonder if Ida can regain TS intensity for a brief time.
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#178 Postby Darvince » Sat Sep 26, 2015 7:00 pm

I don't see why every storm in the general vicinity of where Andrew turned into a monster must be compared to Andrew, as Ida has tons of dry air and shear everywhere around it, with no sign of wet air entering the region to allow much convection to rebuild and it to organize. Also, I may be stupid, but I'm pretty sure that models were either absolutely wretched or didn't even exist in 1992.
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Re:

#179 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 7:04 pm

Hammy wrote:It would be nice go get an ASCAT pass over the system about now given that nice convective blowup. I wonder if Ida can regain TS intensity for a brief time.


Shear is forecast to relax, so I don't think that's too far fetched. This will likely hang around as a TD/weak TS for quite some time.
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#180 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:14 pm

I wonder if the new NHC track will show less of a WNW bend at the end and more of a W or WSW bend by days and 4 and 5 which the models have been showing.
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