ATL: IDA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#201 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:35 pm

Up to 30% thru 5 days.

2. A large area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic
several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida. Some slow
development of this system is possible in a couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Image
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#202 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:12 pm

I don't know but I think TD11 has better chance of being Joaquin. But all of us have the right to follow whatever swirls there may be in the water...
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Re:

#203 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:22 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I don't know but I think TD11 has better chance of being Joaquin. But all of us have the right to follow whatever swirls there may be in the water...


Well this has 0% chance of becoming Joaquin because if it re-forms it'll be called Ida again.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#204 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:44 am

^idk but it doesn't look like the original Ida swirl that we're closely keeping an eye on... It's the shreds coupled in the trough. That's why I though it will be a different entity once it develops, or if ever...
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#205 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:36 am

Up to medium chance in the long-range outlook.

A large area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic several
hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida. Some slow
development of this system is possible later this week while it
moves slowly west-northwestward. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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Re: ATL: IDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#206 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:56 am

As long they maintain the line Remnants of Ida,this thread will continue to be open to the discussions from the members.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L- (Ex IDA) - Discussion

#207 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:09 pm

Thanks ExtraTropical94 8-)
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#208 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:15 pm

Nonetheless, the best idea as always is waiting for an official statement on the naming question.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L- (Ex IDA) - Discussion

#209 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:27 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:There has been the situation that the remnants of TD10 in 2005 eventually became TD12/Katrina and even though the system did not lose its identity it was given a new identifier (which is an equivalent to renaming). There also have been occasions with a system retaining its name through degeneration and redevelopment. Unfortunately I don't know if the NHC changed some of the naming/renaming rules between 2005 and now though.


I do believe that the situation with TD10/Katrina was that there was a much weaker wave in front of it that didn't show up well on satellite, and that the two systems merged into one in the Bahamas, rather than being a direct continuation of TD10. It could be a similar situation here, as there was a trough in the vicinity of Ida, so if they rename (should it develop that is) it would likely be that the two merged without there being a direct identifiable remnant of Ida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L- (Ex IDA) - Discussion

#210 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:31 pm

Hammy wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:There has been the situation that the remnants of TD10 in 2005 eventually became TD12/Katrina and even though the system did not lose its identity it was given a new identifier (which is an equivalent to renaming). There also have been occasions with a system retaining its name through degeneration and redevelopment. Unfortunately I don't know if the NHC changed some of the naming/renaming rules between 2005 and now though.


I do believe that the situation with TD10/Katrina was that there was a much weaker wave in front of it that didn't show up well on satellite, and that the two systems merged into one in the Bahamas, rather than being a direct continuation of TD10. It could be a similar situation here, as there was a trough in the vicinity of Ida, so if they rename (should it develop that is) it would likely be that the two merged without there being a direct identifiable remnant of Ida.
Good Point Hammy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L- (Ex IDA) - Discussion

#211 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:32 pm

Hammy wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:There has been the situation that the remnants of TD10 in 2005 eventually became TD12/Katrina and even though the system did not lose its identity it was given a new identifier (which is an equivalent to renaming). There also have been occasions with a system retaining its name through degeneration and redevelopment. Unfortunately I don't know if the NHC changed some of the naming/renaming rules between 2005 and now though.


I do believe that the situation with TD10/Katrina was that there was a much weaker wave in front of it that didn't show up well on satellite, and that the two systems merged into one in the Bahamas, rather than being a direct continuation of TD10. It could be a similar situation here, as there was a trough in the vicinity of Ida, so if they rename (should it develop that is) it would likely be that the two merged without there being a direct identifiable remnant of Ida.


That's a very good point, I completely forgot about that wave.
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#212 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:38 pm

Up to 30%.

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands is associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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#213 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:37 pm

I want to know what the NHC is seeing...it is just a mess of thunderstorms right now. Joe B. did mention this though:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 2h2 hours ago  State College, PA
Ida could be the saving grace for US. Breaks down ridge ne of Joaquin and could leave it a way out. Wild pattern. Golden age to observe
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Re:

#214 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:58 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:When she finishes her transformation, she will want to be known as Cate. :lol:


Made me chuckle a bit. :lol: Will be very interesting if this one transforms into Kate but I guess Joaquin is closing every door of opportunity for that.
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#215 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:45 am

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands is associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida.
This system has become a little better organized since yesterday,
and additional gradual development is possible during the next
several days while it moves slowly northwestward. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re:

#216 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:54 am

Extratropical94 wrote:1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands is associated with a frontal trough and the remnants of Ida.
This system has become a little better organized since yesterday,
and additional gradual development is possible during the next
several days while it moves slowly northwestward. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent


Pretty lively for a once dead Ida.
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#217 Postby panamatropicwatch » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:57 am

Still very unorganized, kind of surprised at the 70%.
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