WPAC: DUJUAN - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: DUJUAN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:44 pm

Looks like some activity on the monsoon trough got tagged as invest 97W at 10.1*N, 171.2*W at 00Z today. There isn't much model support for our newly christened invest in the near term, but some guidance appears to be taking some of this vorticity west and developing something from it near the Marianas 5+ days out. Likely not an immediate threat to develop, but perhaps something to watch down the road.

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Fri Sep 25, 2015 1:58 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2015 9:53 am

Not looking good at the moment, but I don't think it was really expected to. This is likely a 5-7+ day prospect, and I wouldn't be surprised if this invest is deactivated and then later reactivated/redesignated down the road. Non-American guidance is really making a large, sprawling monsoon circulation out of this near Guam about a week out. American guidance generally keeps 97W more typically-sized and weak, never really developing it.

It should be noted that the ECMWF in particular tried making Etau into a monsoonal type circulation at several days range too, so whatever modeling bias that promoted that depiction might also be at work here again. Then again, maybe not. Very challenging forecast ahead.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:08 pm

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK NEAR 2N155E IS
EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN FAIR WEATHER FOR CHUUK THRU THURSDAY...POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF MAJURO NEAR 9N170E. LATEST WV SATELLITE
LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST
EAST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS NEAR 175E. IR SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO
REVEAL A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE
DISTURBANCE. THESE ELEMENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO JOIN FORCES TO
GENERATE SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MARSHALLS THRU
THIS EVENING. WITH BOTH THE DISTURBANCE AND VORTICITY CENTER ALREADY
NORTHWEST OF MAJURO...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONE WILL SPARK OFF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THRU THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...GENTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROVIDE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY. AS BOTH THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY FIELD PROGRESS WESTWARD...INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL
SHIFT OVER TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CHUUK ON
FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A MONSOON
DEPRESSION NEAR CHUUK THIS WEEKEND BUT IS TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE INTO
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...A MODEST
MONSOONAL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST ACROSS POHNPEI...KOSRAE
THRU THE WEEKEND AND RESUME AT MAJURO BY THIS WEEKEND.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:04 pm

NAVGEM has a very weak system moving westward crossing Guam for the next 120 hours then steadily strengthens it into Dujuan in the Philippine Sea...

Image

CMC has a typhoon for the Marianas...

Image

EURO has 2 landfalls, one as a TS, the other a northeast tracking typhoon for the Northern Marianas...

Image

Even GFS is hinting of a large monsoon system that comes ashore Saipan then strengthens it to a typhoon.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:44 am

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 160006
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1005 AM CHST WED SEP 16 2015

PMZ172-173-174-181-161100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
1005 AM CHST WED SEP 16 2015

...INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL MOVE WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR KWAJALEIN ATOLL AT ABOUT 9N168E IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.

THIS SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND
NORTHERN KOSRAE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT
MOVES WEST IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
KOSRAE STATE TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD POHNPEI ON THURSDAY AND THEN
APPROACH CHUUK STATE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE PASSES IN AND OUT OF THE ATOLLS. EXTRA
CAUTION IS NEEDED FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI...AND KOSRAE STATES AND THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:06 am

00Z EURO is slightly south bringing it closer to Guam and stronger close to typhoon and bottoms it out at 944 mb as it nears Iwo To...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:32 am

spiral wrote:Looks a monsoonal gyre on those EC models posted above it could spawn more than one TC if it pans out.


Yup.

Gfs develops 2 systems from this, future Dujuan, and down the road, Mujigae.

Nonetheless, i see a very wet windy week ahead for us in the Marianas.

I love these monsoonal systems :lol:
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#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:31 am

I'm almost surprised this is still tagged as an invest considering the pitifiul stat of convection with it. Almost because it has gained some good low level vorticity which can be seen on any infrared loop of the system. I'm starting to gain greater confidence that this will be a player down the road.
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#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:06 pm

If you squint, it looks like to me the center/most organized area of convergence is around 11*N, 166.5*E.

Image
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#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:12 pm

97W's circulation is already a huge, sprawling thing.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 6:31 am

EURO still brings Dujuan north of Saipan and strengthens it to a typhoon in the P.I sea.

GFS for the past three runs brings a large sprawling monsoon circulation moving over the the southern Marianas. It agrees on Dujuan strengthening rapidly once it enters the P.I sea with the latest run peaking it at 933 mb as it recurves...
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#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:59 am

I'm seeing some evidence of a closed LLC on VIS, but it needs more convection for this to be upgraded.
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#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:21 pm

This is pretty old by now, but JTWC gave 97W its first mention (low) at 06Z yesterday.

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZSEP2015//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZSEP2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 170000Z, TYPHOON 20W (KROVANH) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N
144.8E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 170300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4N 162.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
CONSOLIDATING TURNING OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WHILE A 170332Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION, A
162330Z RSCAT SHOWS A CLEAR CIRCULATION WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LOW TO MODERATE VWS. GLOBAL MODELS, HOWEVER, DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
OUTSIDE OF 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:04 pm

I'm starting to think 97W could grow into something big once it reaches the Philippine Sea. The past 12Z runs were in remarkable agreement with development and the track of the system even out to tau 168. At that time, the operational ECMWF and the means of the EPS and both versions currently running of the GEFS have the center of a developed 97W within a few degrees of each other. The ECMWF gets the system pretty strong too, and with means in the 990s at that range, the ensembles are no slouch either. Conditions appear quite favorable down the road, so the main limiting factors will probably be related to the system's size and/or initial organization.

Image

Image

Image

Image

In contrast, the operational GFS, keeps the system quite weak, only about as strong as the mean pressure output from the GEFS at the same tau 168. It's a long way out still, but I'm leaning away from weaker solutions like that right now.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:15 pm

It's already looking quite large...

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:16 pm

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 180016
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1015 AM CHST FRI SEP 18 2015

PMZ172-173-174-181100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1015 AM CHST FRI SEP 18 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STILL AFFECTING CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
AND 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK AT 9N157E IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING FROM POHNPEI STATE INTO CHUUK STATE
TODAY AND HAVE MOVED MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF KOSRAE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES ACROSS CHUUK
AND POHNPEI STATES. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE ALSO LIKELY
WHICH MIGHT CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
ROUGH SEAS AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING HEAVY SHOWERS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS
AND SHOWERS HAVE SUBSIDED.

WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TODAY FOR KOSRAE...ON FRIDAY FOR
POHNPEI...AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR CHUUK.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND PAY ATTENTION TO LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ALSO STAY INFORMED WITH LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE
AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON


000
WWMY80 PGUM 172321
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
921 AM CHST FRI SEP 18 2015

GUZ001>004-182300-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
921 AM CHST FRI SEP 18 2015

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM AND ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI AT 9N157E. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH CAN CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
ROUGH SEAS AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING HEAVY
SHOWERS.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE CNMI SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND
PAY ATTENTION TO LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ALSO STAY INFORMED WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

KLEESCHULTE


SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:41 am

NAVGEM is east of the major models. It develops Dujuan into a typhoon in +100 hours east of the Marianas and bottoms it out at 957 mb and out to sea.

00Z CMC has Dujuan as a typhoon in 66 hours and hits the the islands north of Saipan and peaks it at 956 mb east of Okinawa.

EURO almost directs Saipan as a TS which is still recovering from Soudelor and bottoms Dujuan as a Category 5 919 mb monster east of Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:46 am

06Z GFS looking very interesting.

Brings a strengthening almost rapid Dujuan between Rota and Saipan and bottoms it out at 927 mb north of the CNMI.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:48 pm

000
WWMY80 PGUM 182315
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
915 AM CHST SAT SEP 19 2015

GUZ001>004-190515-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
915 AM CHST SAT SEP 19 2015

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MARIANAS FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE MARIANAS AND COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH CAN
CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. ROUGH SEAS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING HEAVY SHOWERS.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE CNMI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ALSO STAY INFORMED WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL
LOWER CASE).

$$

KLEESCHULTE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 11:00 pm

Still struggling with very strong shear shearing the top of it...
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