WPAC: DUJUAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#201 Postby tonypace » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:51 am

In Taichung City, just got power back after a 1 hr outage. Minimal rain, but strong gusts of wind. Not a lot of damage visible, but this is just the beginning.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#202 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:58 am

First Chan-hom, Noul, Soudelor, Goni, and now Dujuan making an impact in this unlucky part of the basin as Cat 3+. Too bad we have 3 months more to go. :eek:
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#203 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:10 am

NotoSans wrote:The Yonaguni Island just recorded ten-minute sustained winds of 51.6 m/s (100.3 kt), breaking the record set by Mary in 1965 (47.8 m/s)

UPDATE:
The weather station also recorded gust of 71.6 m/s (139.2 kt), breaking the record set by Doug in 1994 (70.2 m/s).
Meanwhile, JMA kept the intensity at 100 kt at 06Z.


WOw...awful night for them coming.

Considering how far they are from the eyewall for winds this strong, I think we are dealing with a Cat 5.
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#204 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:10 am

Dujuan is a good candidate for a post-season-reanalysis upgrade to a STY.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#205 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:12 am

Pressure in the westernmost island in the southern Ryukyu's Yonaguni is 960 mb.
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#206 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:16 am

Clouds tops warming quite a lot now due to ERC.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#207 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:19 am

It's gonna be a long night for Taiwan. Western eyewall coming ashore.

Image
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#208 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:39 am

It's crushing all right.

The mountains of Yilan county in NE Taiwan already inundated with 317 mm (12.48 in) and it's far from over.
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#209 Postby NotoSans » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:44 am

JMA has bumped the intensity to 110 kt based on surface observations, making Dujuan a violent typhoon.

Maximum 10-minute sustained winds and gust recorded were 54.6 m/s (106.1 kt) and 81.1 m/s (157.7 kt), respectively.

TY 1521 (DUJUAN)
Issued at 07:40 UTC, 28 September 2015

<Analyses at 28/07 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N24°10'(24.2°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(160kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more W440km(240NM)
E390km(210NM)
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#210 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:54 am

Yonagunijima had a gust to 158 kt (81.1 m/s)? Are you kidding me?!

*EDIT for correct units.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#211 Postby Amoygal » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:16 am

Really starting to pick up in Taipei now. Pouring rain, big gusts, and stuff crashing about.
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#212 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:30 am

Josh of iCyclone sounds like he's seeing some gnarly things based on his last Twitter post.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#213 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:51 am

1900hurricane wrote:Yonagunijima had a gust to 158 kt (81.1 kt)? Are you kidding me?!

won't surprise me if that was caused by an eyewall mesovortex,
Saw some on visible loops yesterday and today. Insane.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#214 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:07 am

mrbagyo wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Yonagunijima had a gust to 158 kt (81.1 kt)? Are you kidding me?!

won't surprise me if that was caused by an eyewall mesovortex,
Saw some on visible loops yesterday and today. Insane.


Very possible. Here are some images from around the time of the gust.

Image

Image

Image
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#215 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:12 am

Both Josh and James reporting much calmer conditions after brutal winds in Suao, Taiwan. They might be entering the edge of the eye.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#216 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:17 am

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#217 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:27 am

Frictional convergence doing its thing as Dujuan begins to push ashore.

Image
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#218 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:51 am

Looks like landfall will be over this rail train city, can't find the name and location and second picture is of Suao where our stormchasers are at this moment.

Image
Image



WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 28-NM EYE EVEN AS THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO LOOSEN WITH UNRAVELING ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE THAT IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AREA WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UP TO
TAU 36 BEFORE DEFLECTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA. MAINLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND CHINA, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOW WEAKEN -
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS, THEN RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL INTO
TAIWAN. BY TAU 48, TY 21W WILL BE REDUCED TO A DISTURBANCE BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#219 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:52 am

spiral wrote:
euro6208 wrote:It's crushing all right.

The mountains of Yilan county in NE Taiwan already inundated with 317 mm (12.48 in) and it's far from over.


I was referring to the core interacting with the mountains there is no need for your sarcasm


Where did this come from? You think every post is referring to yours?
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#220 Postby NotoSans » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:56 am

According to CWB, Dujuan has made landfall near Nan'ao, Yilan at 0940Z.

UPDATE: Su'ao recorded gust of 68.4 m/s (133.0 kt) at 1000Z.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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