WPAC: DUJUAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#221 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:56 am

Doesn't Taiwan have recon planes? If so, did they conduct any missions in and around Dujuan?

I can't believe WPAC nations and the U.S hasn't agreed to bring back recon with all of these massive typhoons with destruction going on...
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#222 Postby NotoSans » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:58 am

euro6208 wrote:Doesn't Taiwan have recon planes? If so, did they conduct any missions in and around Dujuan?

I can't believe WPAC nations and the U.S hasn't brought back recon with all of these massive typhoons with destruction going on...


Taiwan does have recon planes but they don't go directly into the center. The data is mainly used to estimate the wind radii.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#223 Postby R o x » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:34 am

... gusts are truly incredible at the moment here in Zhunan (south of Hsinchu), and are definitely the strongest I felt in the ten years I'm living here ...

its dark now and our concrete house shaking but no problems thus far ... just hearing (heavy) stuff falling on the street ...
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#224 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:35 am

Wow...Here is a shot of the eye from Josh Morgerman.

Image

All calm...

But it's scary to think what's happening near the eyewall of this :eek:
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#225 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:45 am

Read somewhere that Su'ao got a wind gust of 151 mph...

Image
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Re:

#226 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:46 am

1900hurricane wrote:Yonagunijima had a gust to 158 kt (81.1 m/s)? Are you kidding me?!

*EDIT for correct units.


WOW!

That's 181 mph!

I wouldn't be surprised if this was at the neighborhood of 130 to 140 knots as it passes to the south. That gust is no doubt equivalent to a STY although weaker when it was at it's peak intensity.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#227 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:21 am

The name Dujuan was submitted by China and it's meaning doesn't match at all...It means Azalea, a deciduous flowering shrub of the heath family with clusters of brightly colored, sometimes fragrant flowers.

Something Taiwan is not embracing...
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#228 Postby tonypace » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:43 am

Local legend is that typhoons with pretty names are the most dangerous.

Wind has died down in Taichung, but there was extensive damage. A huge piece of acrylic board flew into our yard and made an incredible noise on landing. Waiting for the return of the gusting...
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#229 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:07 am

Field reports alone support a super typhoon in the JTWC classification. Dvorak estimates help but are sometimes questionable.
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#230 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:13 am

Would'nt the 958 near pressure reported by iCyclone only support high 930's or around 120 knots?
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#231 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:51 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 21W HAS RE-EMERGED OVER WATER AND, AS
DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
THE CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN AND A 281737Z GCOM 37 GHZ
IMAGE REVEAL TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED CENTER. OVERALL, BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND IMAGERY, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TY 21W REMAINS A STRONG
SYSTEM AND IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AREA WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UP TO
TAU 18 BEFORE DEFLECTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER CHINA. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 21W WILL
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD. TY 21W SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36,
HOWEVER, THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re:

#232 Postby beoumont » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:56 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Would'nt the 958 near pressure reported by iCyclone only support high 930's or around 120 knots?


James Reynolds had 960mb, and the official weather station in the same city had 959 mb. Considering that city was in the NE quadrant of the eye, I can't see how the lowest pressure anywhere in the eye would be below 950 mb.

In the past I have asked the science advisor at the NHC, Chris Landsea, how much lower the pressure in an intense hurricane can be in the center of the eye compared to the edge of the eye, and his response was "a few millibars"; certainly not more than 10 mb; and definitely not 20 mb.

I have been in a lot of hurricane eyes in 50 years of chasing, and don't recall measuring more than a 5 mb gradient across any eye.

Although Hur. Frances wasn't as intense, it did have a 45 mile wide eye and 958mb pressure at landfall (last recon.). I was in that eye for 7 1/2 hours (measured pressure across the whole width of the eye), and the pressure changed less than 2 mb. across that eye.

But, heh, I guess there can be an outlier of all outliers.

Does anyone have a report of the highest SUSTAINED winds reported in this storm at landfall, at any station?
Last edited by beoumont on Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:15 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re:

#233 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:03 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Would'nt the 958 near pressure reported by iCyclone only support high 930's or around 120 knots?


Under normal circumstances, maybe so, if not even higher. However, I don't know if the northern side of the circulation pushing into the high mountains of Taiwan could have made a difference. That seems like a lot of cross-isobaric flow in the northern circulation to me, and all of it deviated towards the storm's centerline. That's just speculation though; I don't enough knowledge on the subject (or much at all, period) to properly weigh in.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#234 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:09 pm

beoumont wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Would'nt the 958 near pressure reported by iCyclone only support high 930's or around 120 knots?


James Reynolds had 960mb, and the official weather station in the same city had 959 mb. Considering that city was in the NE quadrant of the eye, I can't see how the lowest pressure anywhere in the eye would be below 950 mb.

In the past I have asked the science advisor at the NHC, Chris Landsea, how much lower the pressure in an intense hurricane can be in the center of the eye compared to the edge of the eye, and his response was "a few millibars"; certainly not more than 10 mb; and definitely not 20 mb.

I have been in a lot of hurricane eyes in 50 years of chasing, and don't recall measuring more than a 5 mb gradient across any eye.

But, heh, I guess there can be an outlier of all outliers.

Does anyone have a report of the highest SUSTAINED winds reported in this storm at landfall, at any station?

Haiyan had a very steep pressure gradient at landfall if you'll look at the readings at different stations in Samar and Leyte. Given that is Haiyan but still we can't say exactly the case with this storm.


But I think a reading of sustained winds will be much better basis. Some pro-mets pointed out in the WPAC threads that PW relationship in this basin does not necessarily apply.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Typhoon

#235 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:38 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
beoumont wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Would'nt the 958 near pressure reported by iCyclone only support high 930's or around 120 knots?


James Reynolds had 960mb, and the official weather station in the same city had 959 mb. Considering that city was in the NE quadrant of the eye, I can't see how the lowest pressure anywhere in the eye would be below 950 mb.

In the past I have asked the science advisor at the NHC, Chris Landsea, how much lower the pressure in an intense hurricane can be in the center of the eye compared to the edge of the eye, and his response was "a few millibars"; certainly not more than 10 mb; and definitely not 20 mb.

I have been in a lot of hurricane eyes in 50 years of chasing, and don't recall measuring more than a 5 mb gradient across any eye.

But, heh, I guess there can be an outlier of all outliers.

Does anyone have a report of the highest SUSTAINED winds reported in this storm at landfall, at any station?

Haiyan had a very steep pressure gradient at landfall if you'll look at the readings at different stations in Samar and Leyte. Given that is Haiyan but still we can't say exactly the case with this storm.


But I think a reading of sustained winds will be much better basis. Some pro-mets pointed out in the WPAC threads that PW relationship in this basin does not necessarily apply.


I def think there was some abnormal pressure gradient in the eye since for starters, the eye was large, and throughout the 24 hours leading up to landfall black dvorak images suggested that the eye warmth was quite uneven (though the warmest pixel in the ADT were around 15C.

I understand that the WPAC P-W relationship is garbage at times, but given the large eye and large RMW, I'd suppose around 933 mbar or so would support 125 knts, and 950 mbar would support 100 knots.
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#236 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:01 pm

Dujuan looks to have made final landfall into China now.

Image

Image
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#237 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:20 am

Highest sustained winds Suao CWB weather station recorded was 39.8 m/s (10 minute average?) I'm not sure of the elevation of the station.

Yonaguni island east of Suao recorded sustained 51.6 m/s (JMA uses 10 minute average I believe) with a extraordinary gust to 81.1 m/s. It should be noted though that this station is at 30m elevation. That wind gust is highest recorded in Japan since 1966 (which was at the top of Mt Fuji.)


beoumont wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Would'nt the 958 near pressure reported by iCyclone only support high 930's or around 120 knots?


James Reynolds had 960mb, and the official weather station in the same city had 959 mb. Considering that city was in the NE quadrant of the eye, I can't see how the lowest pressure anywhere in the eye would be below 950 mb.

In the past I have asked the science advisor at the NHC, Chris Landsea, how much lower the pressure in an intense hurricane can be in the center of the eye compared to the edge of the eye, and his response was "a few millibars"; certainly not more than 10 mb; and definitely not 20 mb.

I have been in a lot of hurricane eyes in 50 years of chasing, and don't recall measuring more than a 5 mb gradient across any eye.

Although Hur. Frances wasn't as intense, it did have a 45 mile wide eye and 958mb pressure at landfall (last recon.). I was in that eye for 7 1/2 hours (measured pressure across the whole width of the eye), and the pressure changed less than 2 mb. across that eye.

But, heh, I guess there can be an outlier of all outliers.

Does anyone have a report of the highest SUSTAINED winds reported in this storm at landfall, at any station?
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#238 Postby NotoSans » Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:35 am

The central pressure of a system often rises significantly when making landfall over Taiwan, mainly due to interaction with the mountainous terrains. Krosa in 2007 and Herb in 1996 are some of the notable examples. Observations from the Ryukyu Islands were below 930 mb, but the ones from Taiwan were above 940 mb.

However, the winds do not respond that quickly to the sharp increase in central pressure, making the normal wind-pressure relationship inapplicable. Bilis in 2000 is one of the examples. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds recorded were 52.3 m/s. This observation supports an intensity of at least 125 kt, assuming that the station did not catch the maximum winds. However, when the station was in the eye, the minimum pressure recorded was only 931 mb, which is a bit high for a 125-kt system.
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#239 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:36 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.3N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.0N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 118.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM WEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TY 21W HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
CHINA AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK INLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DECAYING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED OVER WATER. BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND
IMAGERY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TY 21W
REMAINS A STRONG SYSTEM AND IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS FORECAST RE-CURVE POLEWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TY 21W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS POLEWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 25 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#240 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:40 am

http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/sep/29/typhoon-dujuan-high-winds-blow-people-off-feet-taiwan-video

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Crazy...

Does the folks even know there's a typhoon? People minding their business as usual and look at all the activity. :lol:
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