CPAC: MALIA - Post-Tropical

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CPAC: MALIA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Sep 15, 2015 10:31 pm

Image

95C INVEST 150916 0000 11.3N 170.9W CPAC 25 1009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
159 PM HST TUE SEP 15 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located over 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu will move west slowly.
Scattered thunderstorms are occurring over a broad area, but little development is anticipated over the next two days.

*Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Wed Sep 23, 2015 5:57 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 95C

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:17 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
747 PM HST TUE SEP 15 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development is possible during the next couple of days as this low moves slowly to the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.
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#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:58 am

1. A broad area of low pressure is located about 1300 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have increased during the night, and gradual development is possible during the next couple of days as this area of low pressure moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 95C

#4 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:09 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A broad area of low pressure is located about 1300 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii and around 400 miles southwest of Johnston island.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have increased over the past 24 hours, and gradual development is possible during the next couple of days as this area of low pressure moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.
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#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 1:01 am

Stays at 40%

broad area of low pressure is located about 1250 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, and around 425 miles southwest of Johnston island. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have been developing near a low level circulation center, and gradual development is possible over the next couple of days as this area moves slowly toward the north or northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.
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#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:08 am

50%

An area of low pressure is located about 1200 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, and around 400 miles southwest of Johnston island. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have been developing near a low level circulation center, and gradual strengthening is possible over the next couple of days as the area moves slowly toward the north or northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
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#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:57 am

Been trying to organize, but so far, shear seems to be winning. Still the UKMET and ECMWF show development, so I'd still count on it.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 95C

#8 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:09 pm

95C INVEST 150917 1800 13.7N 174.9W CPAC 20 1007

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 95C

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 17, 2015 3:35 pm

jaguarjace wrote:95C INVEST 150917 1800 13.7N 174.9W CPAC 20 1007

Image


is it me or does this look like its coming together nicely

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#10 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:02 pm

GFS showing a lot of shear as it moves north.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 95C

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:03 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      CP952015  09/17/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    27    30    37    44    51    56    60    62    63    62
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    27    30    37    44    51    56    60    62    63    62
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    23    25    29    33    37    44    51    59    63    63
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     1     2     5    10    12     8     6     4     8    19    24    28
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -4    -4    -3    -2    -2    -5    -2    -1     0    -2     5     0
SHEAR DIR        271    30   163   217   242   205   202   159   236   237   253   256   276
SST (C)         30.3  30.2  30.1  30.0  29.8  29.6  29.6  29.7  29.6  29.3  28.5  27.3  26.0
POT. INT. (KT)   168   168   165   163   161   159   160   162   162   159   151   138   124
200 MB T (C)   -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    10    10    10    11    10     9     9     9     8     7     5
700-500 MB RH     71    66    65    65    62    58    62    65    64    61    59    61    61
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     7     7     7  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    68    60    68    78    79    84    87   113   106   113    78    45   -13
200 MB DIV        49    45    36    44    36    31    40    61    67    71    60    50    29
700-850 TADV       4     1     0     0     0    -2    -1     4     8     8    22    33    30
LAND (KM)       1844  1841  1846  1833  1823  1742  1598  1363  1176  1085  1096  1189  1325
LAT (DEG N)     13.7  14.7  15.6  16.2  16.8  17.6  18.0  19.0  20.8  23.2  25.7  28.5  31.0
LONG(DEG W)    174.9 175.5 176.0 176.2 176.3 175.8 174.5 172.5 171.1 170.3 169.8 169.2 168.6
STM SPEED (KT)    10    11     8     6     5     5     9    11    12    13    13    14    12
HEAT CONTENT      71    57    51    48    46    44    60    70    37    39    19     2     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/  8      CX,CY:  -2/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  565  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  88.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -1.   0.   7.  15.  24.  32.  37.  39.  41.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   8.   8.   9.   8.   6.   3.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -3.   0.   1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  10.  17.  24.  31.  36.  40.  42.  43.  42.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952015 INVEST     09/17/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.5 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 145.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  10.7 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  54.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  42.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    73% is   5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    51% is   5.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    31% is   4.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    29% is   7.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)


Should be fine for 3 more days.
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#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:56 am

what?

1. A surface low is about 1290 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii or around 420 miles southwest of Johnston island. Some strengthening is possible over the next day. The system is expected to become post tropical as it moves farther northeast tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.
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#13 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:49 pm

A surface low is about 1180 miles west southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii or around 360 miles west of Johnston island. Some strenthening in this system is possible, however the system may become extra tropical as it moves northeast over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.
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#14 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:04 pm

not understanding CPHC here at all. This looks nothing like a system about to become ET
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Re:

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:14 pm

Alyono wrote:not understanding CPHC here at all. This looks nothing like a system about to become ET


Yea, and no models make this ET anytime soon....
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 95C

#16 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:42 pm

Image
Image
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:08 pm

Yea, only a 30% chance of development. As if it's not a TC already....
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 95C

#18 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:59 pm

Now up to 90 percent in the next 48 hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A tropical disturbance is about 1120 miles west southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii or around 370 miles west of Johnston island.
Organization has greatly improved and is likely that the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories on this disturbance later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 90 percent.
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Re: CPAC: FIVE-C - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:42 pm

TD FIVE-C
Image
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:12 pm

Please wait for the advisory before changing the header next time.
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