CPAC: NIALA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 943
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

CPAC: NIALA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Sep 20, 2015 10:31 pm

Image

96C INVEST 150921 0000 10.0N 141.6W CPAC 20 1005

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN SEP 20 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

2. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak low pressure area centered about 1075 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remains disorganized.
There may be a slight chance for tropical cyclone development with this area of unstable weather over the next couple of days as it moves slowly west.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 10 percent.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 943
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:42 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions will continue to support gradual development over the next couple of days as it moves slowly northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:02 am

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      CP962015  09/21/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    24    26    33    43    52    58    65    68    72    74
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    24    26    33    43    52    58    65    68    72    74
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    22    22    24    28    33    41    51    61    69    78
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7     7     9     7     4     5     8    13    12    15    14    15    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -3    -6    -7    -7    -6    -6    -6    -4    -1    -4    -1    -3
SHEAR DIR        149   161   164   169   160   111    39    54    64    54    56    48    29
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.4  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.1
POT. INT. (KT)   158   160   159   159   159   158   157   155   152   153   153   154   152
200 MB T (C)   -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     7     8     8     8     8
700-500 MB RH     67    67    69    70    71    71    68    65    64    62    63    61    64
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     8     8     8     8     7     7     9     9    12    12    13    13
850 MB ENV VOR     5     5     6    10    13    18    13    11    18    30    35    40    39
200 MB DIV        47    56    60    69    69    74    43    23    28    29    31    20     0
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1     1     1     1     1
LAND (KM)       1729  1644  1560  1490  1421  1299  1202  1118  1092  1107  1116  1071  1006
LAT (DEG N)      9.7   9.9  10.0  10.2  10.3  10.8  11.2  11.7  12.0  11.9  11.8  12.0  12.6
LONG(DEG W)    142.3 143.2 144.1 144.8 145.6 146.7 147.6 148.2 148.2 148.1 148.1 148.5 148.7
STM SPEED (KT)     6     9     8     8     7     5     4     2     0     1     1     2     3
HEAT CONTENT      23    19    18    18    17    22    27    28    28    28    28    27    24

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/  4      CX,CY:  -3/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  630  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  78.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  15.  24.  31.  35.  38.  40.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   7.   7.   7.   7.   6.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   4.   7.   9.  10.  11.  11.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   6.   7.   7.   7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   4.   6.  13.  23.  32.  38.  45.  48.  52.  55.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST     09/21/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.2 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 138.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.6 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  19.0 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    35% is   2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    26% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    18% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    13% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3448
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 21, 2015 10:21 am

Not a bad looking invest.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 21, 2015 11:13 am

Looks like a TC just need to find evidence of a closed LLC.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:58 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remains somewhat disorganized. Environmental conditions will continue to support development over the next few days as it moves slowly northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8017
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:54 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:[code] * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP962015 09/21/15 12 UTC *



I'm thinking it does have a solid chance at making hurricane status. Although GFS and Euro not doing much with it anymore.

This is crazy. Our 7th named storm on the way for the CPAC.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8017
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:59 pm

Intensity guidance so far.
Image

Thinking we'll have a weaker Guillermo?
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:22 pm

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii are increasing in organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:24 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      CP962015  09/22/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    36    41    51    61    69    74    77    79    82    85
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    36    41    51    61    69    74    77    79    82    85
V (KT) LGE mod    25    28    31    35    38    47    58    70    82    91    97   103   107
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7     6     7    10    10     8    13    11    14    12    12     8     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -7    -7    -7    -7    -4    -6    -3    -2    -3    -3    -1     0
SHEAR DIR        138   128   103   117   121    63    61    59    57    72    85   100   106
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.3  29.2  29.0
POT. INT. (KT)   159   158   158   157   157   156   154   154   153   154   154   154   152
200 MB T (C)   -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8
700-500 MB RH     67    71    73    71    69    66    60    61    61    59    56    56    58
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     8     7     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    13    13    14
850 MB ENV VOR    11    15    13    14    23    19    15    20    24    28    30    52    48
200 MB DIV        60    71    75    77    80    58    47    51    50    31    -6     6    -3
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     1     1     1     0     0     2     2
LAND (KM)       1545  1479  1414  1368  1322  1245  1197  1195  1210  1210  1164  1101  1007
LAT (DEG N)      9.9  10.1  10.3  10.5  10.7  11.1  11.5  11.7  11.7  11.7  12.0  12.5  13.3
LONG(DEG W)    144.4 145.0 145.7 146.1 146.5 147.1 147.3 147.1 146.9 146.9 147.2 147.5 147.9
STM SPEED (KT)     7     7     6     4     4     3     1     1     0     1     3     3     4
HEAT CONTENT      18    18    17    19    21    25    29    30    30    30    32    30    24

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  532  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  94.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   8.  15.  22.  28.  32.  34.  36.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   5.   5.   5.   5.   5.   6.   6.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   4.   7.  10.  13.  15.  16.  16.  15.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.   0.   1.   3.   4.   7.   7.   7.   8.   9.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   5.   5.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  12.  16.  26.  36.  44.  49.  52.  54.  57.  60.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962015 INVEST     09/22/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.0 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 132.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   8.2 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  18.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.8 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    55% is   4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    31% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    22% is   3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    20% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)


We could have a major if these shear forecast verify
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8017
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 22, 2015 3:58 am

GFS and Euro don't really like it anymore. :uarrow:
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#12 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:40 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 930 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continue to develop and show signs of organization periodically. Although the thunderstorms have weakened and decreased in coverage through the day today, environmental conditions remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.

Still a high chance for development though. But them being the CPHC, they can do jumps in formation probability like no other agency (e.g. Malia's 50% -> 30% -> 90%).
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:18 pm

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to develop and show signs of organization. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 943
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#14 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Sep 23, 2015 6:00 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 22 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have changed little in organization during the last several hours.
Environmental conditions will remain conducive for some gradual development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:13 am

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have increased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 402
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: CPAC: INVEST 96C

#16 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:32 am

Not bad at all.

Image
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3448
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#17 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:50 am

:uarrow: Those microwave images show something that looks classifiable to me.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#18 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:00 pm

8am HST TWO: Did they even change a single word?

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have increased during the past several hours. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development over the next couple of days as the low moves slowly toward the north-northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10226
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 23, 2015 2:14 pm

Don't know why this isn't a TD. Based on the earlier microwave and ASCAT pass, this appears to have a well-defined center, although winds are likely 20-25 knots.

Birichard hinted on Twitter that the CPHC will upgrade soon. Hope that is true.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8017
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 23, 2015 3:09 pm

Image
0 likes   
Image


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest