AbcdeerHI wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Why would they go with Dvorak when visible satellite says otherwise? Not a single mention of the intermittent eye.
My guess would be theyre look for consistency raher then jumping the gun in the short term. As i write this the "intermittent eye" has dissipated. Im sure this will be mentioned in the 5pm discussion.
I do wonder if Naiala gets stronger than anticipated will the track shift to the right? If so, does that mean stronger shear and quicker decoupling or possibly traveling farther north then currently predicted and more islands get caught in the remnants?
But that's why it's called an intermittent eye. It's not consistent but it's there, meaning that the storm has intensified to the point where the eye can clear. And when there's an eye, it means that the storm is hurricane.
But I would see them going with 60kts if microwave remains dodgy.
I think the track is dependent on storm intensity. 18z GFS kept it stronger and shifted more right before it got decapitated by the shear. 12z Euro shows it intact under the big island but keeps it moving west. Don't know how that makes sense. Maybe it gets decoupled?