CPAC: NIALA - Post-Tropical

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#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 4:20 pm

So the CPHC finally woke up and realized this was stronger yesterday.
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Re: CPAC: NIALA - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 26, 2015 11:24 pm

077
WTPA41 PHFO 270249
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
500 PM HST SAT SEP 26 2015

SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...BECAME EXPOSED THIS
MORNING...THE MYSTERY CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF NIALA HAS BEEN
REMOVED. A SECOND BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC HAS BEGUN TO SUBSIDE...LEAVING A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL.
OVERALL PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING
DEBILITATING WEST SOUTHWEST SHEAR...WITH THE ONLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONTINUING TO BE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. UW-CIMSS NOW ANALYZES 40 KT
OF SHEAR...WHILE SHIPS SHOWS 25 KT. NEITHER VALUE IS HEALTHY FOR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 3.5...55 KT...FROM SAB AND PHFO...TO 3.0...45 KT...FROM
JTWC. UW-CIMSS ESTIMATES NIALA INTENSITY IS 50 KT. BETWEEN 2300 UTC
AND 0000 UTC...NIALA PASSED ABOUT 40 NM SOUTH OF BUOY FOUR...WHICH
REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 47 KT BETWEEN THOSE HOURS. GIVEN THIS
STRENGTH AND DISTANCE FROM THE LLCC...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH TWO OF
THE THREE SATELLITE CENTERS...WE WILL KEEP NIALA AT 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/07 KT. SINCE MOST ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
IS GONE...PRIMARY STEERING FOR NIALA WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FAR NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS HIGH IS ALREADY
DRIVING NEAR-GALE FORCE EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ALOHA STATE AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND WILL LIKELY FORCE
NIALA TO ASSUME A WEST SOUTHWEST MOTION WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPING
NIALA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CURVING ITS TRACK
GENTLY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW
AFTERWARDS. FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH DAY
FIVE...IN KEEPING WITH CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE...MOVING UP THE
TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
VERSUS SUNDAY EVENING. WITH NIALA NOT EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY...THERE IS SIMPLY NOTHING TO SLOW NIALA DOWN AS IT
WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS CYCLE...THE ONSET AND CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITIES FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE HAVE
DECREASED...THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WESTERLY SYSTEM MOTION AND A
PAIR OF INITIAL FORECAST POINTS FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED WHEN
THE WATCH WAS INITIALLY ISSUED. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CANCEL THE
WATCH LATER TONIGHT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY WEAKENS NIALA THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITH ICON AND SHIPS DISSIPATING THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY AFTER
48 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP NIALA ALIVE AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST OF GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS A BLEND OF THESE TRENDS...REDUCING NIALA TO A
POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW ON DAY FOUR...BUT NOT DISSIPATING IT
COMPLETELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.9N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.9N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 16.7N 155.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 16.3N 156.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 15.9N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 15.1N 160.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 14.4N 163.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 14.0N 166.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: NIALA - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby supercane » Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:55 am

WTPA41 PHFO 270905
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 26 2015

THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF NIALA IS EVIDENT
IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THE BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY COMPLETELY GONE BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SINCE THEN...A NEW CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR 53 THOUSAND FEET. THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
THE VICINITY OF NIALA ARE 30 TO 40 KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS
IS LIKELY THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF CURRENT
INTENSITY RANGE FROM 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO TO 3.0/45 KT FROM
SAB AND JTWC. THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.4/34 KT.
BASED ON THE POOR APPEARANCE OF NIALA AND THE LOWER CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 45 KT.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS 255/07 KT. SINCE NIALA IS BECOMING A
SHALLOW SYSTEM DUE TO LESS DEEP CONVECTION...THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM IS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
LOCATED MORE THAN 1600 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH COMPARED WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST TVCN
AND GFEX CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE AGAIN SEEING THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY WEAKENS NIALA THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITH ICON AND SHIPS DISSIPATING THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY AFTER
48 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN NIALA AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OUR
FORECAST OF CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS A BLEND OF THESE
TRENDS...REDUCING NIALA TO A POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW ON DAY
THREE...BUT NOT DISSIPATING IT COMPLETELY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE ONSET AND CUMULATIVE PROBABILITIES FOR WINDS OF 34 KT OR
GREATER CONTINUE TO DECREASE. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WE MAY BE
ABLE CANCEL THIS WATCH FOR LAND AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. NOTE THAT
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF NIALA AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN NIALA AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS...WITH LOCAL AREAS
OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN SOME CHANNELS...ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.5N 153.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.3N 154.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 16.0N 155.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 15.7N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 15.4N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 15.0N 160.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 14.5N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 14.0N 165.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPA41 PHFO 271511
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
500 AM HST SUN SEP 27 2015

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT STARTED OUT AS A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF NIALA EXPANDED AND WRAPPED
AROUND OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
/LLCC/ OF THE STORM JUST BEFORE 1000Z THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LLCC IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE WAS A 0705Z ASCAT PASS OVER
NIALA...WHICH PROVIDED A GOOD IDEA OF THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM
LAST EVENING...IN ADDITION TO SHOWING A PEAK SURFACE WIND SPEED OF
AT LEAST 40 KT. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
CURRENT INTENSITY RANGE FROM 3.5/55 KT AT PHFO TO 3.0/45 KT FROM SAB
AND JTWC. THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.4/34 KT. SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF
NIALA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT 45
KT.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS 250/06 KT. NIALA HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING
TO A SHALLOW SYSTEM DUE TO INCONSISTENT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE INNER CORE. AS A RESULT...THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED MORE THAN 1600 NM TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36
HOURS...WITH SOME SLOWING AND A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT
DURING DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. THIS CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST TVCN AND
GFEX CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH.

THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF NIALA AT 1200Z IS 30 TO 40 KT FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SINCE
EARLY SATURDAY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY WEAKENS
NIALA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ICON AND SHIPS
DISSIPATING THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF ALSO
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER DAY 4...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN NIALA AS A TROPICAL LOW FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. OUR
FORECAST OF CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS A BLEND OF THESE
TRENDS...REDUCING NIALA TO A POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW ON DAY 3...
BUT NOT DISSIPATING IT COMPLETELY DURING DAYS 4 AND 5. NOTE THAT THE
WIND RADII FOR NIALA WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 0704Z ASCAT PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
NOTE THAT WITH NIALA PASSING SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NIALA
AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN SOME CHANNELS AND
COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALSO...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP TOWARD THE
BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ON
PARTS OF THAT ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 16.3N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.1N 154.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 15.8N 156.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.6N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.5N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 15.2N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 14.5N 163.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 14.0N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Re: CPAC: NIALA - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby supercane » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:40 pm

946
WTPA41 PHFO 272057
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 27 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...HAS BECOME EXPOSED ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SPENDING MUCH OF THE NIGHT BENEATH THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION HAS SINCE DECREASED...WITH
THE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST. NEW DEEP CONVECTION
HAS FORMED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LLCC...BUT HAS NOT
COMPLETELY OBSCURED IT YET AS OF 1930 UTC. FIX CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH...WITH ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS PLACING NIALA IN EXACTLY THE
SAME PLACE...TO THE TENTH OF A DEGREE ANYWAY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5...35 KT...FROM JTWC...TO 3.5...45
KT...FROM SAB AND PHFO. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 2.6...37 KT. NIALA WAS
RECENTLY REDUCED TO 45 KT AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER THAN LAST TIME...SO IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DATA WE
WILL KEEP 45 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY THIS TIME.

INITIAL MOTION IS 240/06 KT. AS AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
SYSTEM...NIALA IS NOW PRIMARILY STEERED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR
NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH A TIGHTLY PACKED ENVELOPE INDICATING MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT FROM THE LAST ONE
TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MOTION AND ALIGN MORE CLOSELY WITH TVCN
CONSENSUS.

SHEAR ACROSS NIALA IS ANALYZED AT 30 KT FROM SHIPS AND 40 KT FROM
UW-CIMSS THIS MORNING...SO IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE OVERALL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS OF A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH INCREASINGLY
SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE FATE OF
NIALA...WITH ECMWF AND ICON DISSIPATING THIS SYSTEM AFTER 48
AND 96 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. GFS MAINTAINS NIALA AS A WEAK TROPICAL
LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS. MOST MODELS SHOW NIALA WEAKENING TO MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. OUR FORECAST FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING MATCHES THE LAST FORECAST AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THESE
TRENDS...WITH NIALA FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
AFTER 24 HOURS...THEN TO POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW STATUS ON DAY
THREE. LIKE BEFORE...WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THIS SYSTEM.
VERY LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT UNSPECIFIED TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE ANY REMNANTS OF NIALA WOULD
RESIDE...SAY SEVEN TO TEN DAYS OUT.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NIALA AND THE HIGH NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS...WITH LOCAL AREAS
OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN SOME CHANNELS AND COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ON PARTS OF THAT ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.0N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 15.7N 155.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 15.4N 156.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.2N 157.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 15.0N 158.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 14.6N 161.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 13.9N 163.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 13.3N 164.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


FORECASTER POWELL

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

474
WTPA41 PHFO 280254
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
500 PM HST SUN SEP 27 2015

NIALA IS NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND HAS BEEN SINCE ABOUT
2200 UTC. THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL KEEPS FIX CONFIDENCE HIGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REFLECT THIS WORSENING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WITH 2.5...35
KT...GIVEN BY ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 2.7...39
KT. HOWEVER...A 1935 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 50 NM WIDE SWATH OF 40
KT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME TIME HAS PASSED SINCE
THEN...BUT WE WILL DROP THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS
40 KT...INSTEAD OF 35 KT...IN A NOD TO THAT ASCAT PASS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 250/08 KT...REPRESENTING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED SINCE THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING NIALA CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...SO IT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THAT SYSTEM MOTION WOULD SLOWLY
APPROACH BACKGROUND LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS...REMAINING TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND TAKING NIALA TOWARDS
THE WEST SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LAST ONE...WITH FASTER MOVEMENT
THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOWER MOTION AFTERWARDS AS PER
CONSENSUS MODELS.

SHEAR ACROSS NIALA IS ANALYZED AT 32 KT FROM SHIPS AND 43 KT FROM
UW-CIMSS THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT NIALA IS
WEAKENING EVEN AS IT PASSES OVER INCREASINGLY WARM WATER. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY WEAKENS NIALA...BUT AT VARIOUS RATES. ECMWF
AND ICON COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THIS SYSTEM AFTER 48 AND 72
HOURS...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE MODELS LIKE GFS AND HWRF KEEP NIALA
ALIVE AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS. OUR FORECAST WEAKENS
NIALA TO A DEPRESSION AT 24 HOURS...THEN TO A POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT
LOW AT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LIKE THE LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...WE DO
NOT DISSIPATE THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY. LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT UNSPECIFIED TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GENERAL AREA
SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHERE ANY REMNANTS OF NIALA WOULD
LINGER IN SEVEN TO TEN DAYS.

THERE ARE NO WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ASSOCIATED WITH
NIALA...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE REAL HAZARDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS RELATED TO MOISTURE AND SWELL BROUGHT
IN BY STRONG TRADE WINDS...ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING RESIDUAL NIALA
SWELL MAINLY TO THE BIG ISLAND. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY THE HIGH
FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SAME HIGH PUSHING NIALA
ALONG. THE HONOLULU WFO CONTINUES TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORY PRODUCTS...ALONG WITH PRODUCTS DESCRIBING MARINE AND
AVIATION HAZARDS...RELATED TO THIS STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 15.7N 155.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 15.4N 156.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 15.1N 158.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 14.8N 159.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 14.4N 161.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 13.7N 163.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 13.1N 165.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 12.6N 166.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: NIALA - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:22 am

I can no longer find it on satellite imagery. It's gone. Sheared apart.

Image
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Re: CPAC: NIALA - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby supercane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:38 pm

747
WTPA41 PHFO 280903
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 27 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECT
THE FACT THAT NIALA WAS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LLCC JUST A FEW HOURS
AGO. JTWC CONTINUED TO INDICATE 2.5/35 KT...WHILE PHFO AND SAB
ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/30 KT. THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS
1.9/29 KT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE WEAKENED NIALA TO A 35 KT MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/09 KT...WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE FACT
THAT NIALA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS BEING STEERED BY THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED MORE THAN 1600
NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5 BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM THE TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS OUTPUT...AS WELL AS THE INDIVIDUAL
GFS AND HWRF MODELS.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF NIALA ARE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 27 KT BASED ON
SHIPS AND 41 KT BASED ON UW-CIMSS THIS EVENING. THIS STRONG SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE CHANCES OF
NIALA MAINTAINING SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS INNER CORE
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT. THE
CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS WE CONTINUE TO SEE WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS
FREQUENT...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LLCC. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THROUGH DAY 3. WE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NIALA
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY LATE
TUESDAY...IF NOT SOONER. AGAIN...AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT NIALA WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. ONCE IT
TRAVELS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...IT WILL ENCOUNTER NOT ONLY MUCH WARMER
OCEAN TEMPERATURES...IT WILL ALSO LIKELY MOVE INTO A LESS HOSTILE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. NOTE THAT THIS LATEST FORECAST BRINGS WIND
SPEEDS BACK TO 30 KT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE
POSSIBILITY THAT NIALA WILL BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE AGAIN OVER THE
EL NINO FUELED WARMTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 15.1N 156.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 15.0N 157.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 14.7N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 14.5N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 14.3N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 14.0N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 13.5N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 12.5N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


FORECASTER HOUSTON

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

559
WTPA41 PHFO 281443
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
500 AM HST MON SEP 28 2015

THE LAST BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF NIALA SUNDAY
EVENING HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. MORE IMPORTANTLY...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE LLCC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
NIALA IS JUST A SHALLOW SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...WITH NO ORGANIZED MID
OR UPPER LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINING. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC...
WHILE THE PHFO AND SAB ESTIMATES WERE 1.5/25 KT. THE MOST RECENT
UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 1.6/26 KT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE WEAKENED
NIALA TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY...AND IT IS NOW 250/07 KT.
THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SHALLOW LLCC IS THE CIRCULATION
AROUND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED MORE THAN 1700 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NIALA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE FUTURE TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...UNTIL WHATEVER IS LEFT OF NIALA MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING DURING DAYS 4 AND 5. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...AND HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE TVCN
CONSENSUS OUTPUT...AS WELL AS THE INDIVIDUAL GFS AND HWRF MODELS.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF NIALA INDICATE IT IS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 28 KT
BASED ON SHIPS AND 33 KT BASED ON UW-CIMSS. THIS STRONG SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO IT IS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT NIALA WILL REDEVELOP PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS INNER CORE THROUGH DAY 3. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS FREQUENT...AND WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. AS A RESULT...
WE NOW WEAKEN THE DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AGAIN...AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THAT NIALA WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. ONCE IT TRAVELS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...IT WILL ENCOUNTER NOT ONLY MUCH WARMER OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...IT MAY ALSO MOVE INTO A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 15.0N 156.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 14.7N 157.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 14.5N 159.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 14.3N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 14.1N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 163.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z 13.0N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1200Z 12.0N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


FORECASTER HOUSTON
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#87 Postby Darvince » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:13 pm

goodbye sweet prince
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Re:

#88 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:18 pm

Darvince wrote:goodbye sweet prince


Princess ;).
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#89 Postby supercane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:48 pm

906
WTPA41 PHFO 282043
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
1100 AM HST MON SEP 28 2015

NIALA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ IS POORLY DEFINED AND LACKS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. DESPITE AN OVERNIGHT FLARE-UP OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC...THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
SEVERELY DEGRADED BY THE PERSISTENT SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSTS
WERE UNABLE TO OBTAIN A DATA-T DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO/PGTW/SAB RESPECTIVELY RANGED
FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 TO TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS PACKAGE IS BEING LOWERED TO 25 KT...AND NIALA WILL REMAIN
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. IF NO NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE
CENTER...NIALA IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/09 KT. THE
REMNANT LOW THAT NIALA IS FORECAST TO BECOME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
AND BY A NEW HIGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD FAR NORTH OF THE REMNANT
LOW BY MID-WEEK. AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANT OF NIALA AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
FIELD WILL MERGE INTO A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT AND
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...AND IS LINE WITH THE TVCN
CONSENSUS...AT LEAST WHERE MEMBER MODELS STILL CONTAIN A CLOSED LOW.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINTAINED NIALA AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO LIGHTER SHEAR
AS THE REMNANT LOW INCREASES ITS DISTANCE FROM THE STRONG SHEAR
FOUND TO ITS NORTH...AND INCREASING WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. ALSO...THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNALS IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS THAT A NEW LOW WILL EMERGE FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO WHICH
NIALA MERGES...ALBEIT IN ABOUT 5-7 DAYS. GIVEN RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS...WHERE NIALA ALREADY LOOKS TO BE MERGING INTO A LARGER SCALE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH...AND THE FACT THAT GLOBAL MODELS
LOSE THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH NIALA BY DAY 2 OR 3...THE
UPDATED FORECAST NOW INDICATES DISSIPATION BY DAY 3. THIS IS LINE
WITH THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IF CURRENT TRENDS
PERSIST...THE FORECAST DISSIPATION MAY NEED TO BE ACCELERATED
FURTHER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 15.3N 157.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.1N 158.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 15.0N 160.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 14.4N 162.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Re: CPAC: NIALA - Tropical Depression

#90 Postby supercane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:04 pm

WTPA41 PHFO 290238
TCDCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
500 PM HST MON SEP 28 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SHRINKING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF NIALA HAS DEGRADED TO THE POINT THAT
THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY. PERSISTENT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME SHALLOW...AND THE SHALLOW REMNANT IS LOSING ITS
IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE-SCALE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FROM THE WEST. MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ARE BEGINNING TO
OBSCURE THE LLCC...AND ALSO HELP TO HIGHLIGHT THE DEBILITATING
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE NEAR 30 KT BY UW-
CIMSS. WHILE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FLARED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS IS MORE RELATED TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH...AND LESS SO WITH NIALA/S CIRCULATION. WHILE SAB AND
PHFO DEEMED THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY...PGTW DERIVED A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 1.5/25 KT. GIVEN THIS DATA...NIALA IS DEEMED TO BE A
25 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/08 KT. THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST THEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SOUTH A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES SO...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE REMNANT OF NIALA WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND DISSIPATE. WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROUGH...IT IS NOT LIKELY
THAT NIALA WILL REMAIN AN IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE...AND THE UPDATED
FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY CALLS FOR NIALA TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48
HOURS. THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY GFS AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE MODELS IN
FORECASTING DISSIPATION.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON NIALA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP
AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.5N 158.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 29/1200Z 15.4N 159.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 15.1N 161.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 14.9N 162.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#91 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:10 am

No chance of regeneration

An area of thunderstorms persists around post-tropical/remnant low Niala, but a hostile shear environment is expected to prevent re-development in this area for the next few days. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, 0 percent.
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