EPAC:- MARTY - Remnants

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#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 8:32 pm

EP, 17, 2015092700, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1031W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 40, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:05 pm

It has that look. I'm worried about shear in the long run, but if trends continue, this should have little problems becoming a hurricane in the short term.

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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:50 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015

The cyclone has become better organized during the past several
hours with a large burst of convection recently trying to form a
central dense overcast. In addition, the latest microwave images
show some structure to the inner core, along with more pronounced
banding features south of the center. On the basis of the increased
organization and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial
wind speed is set to 35 kt.

Marty is now moving northward at about 4 kt. A turn to the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday due to the storm moving around
the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the far eastern
Pacific west of Central America. While Marty will get close to
being caught by a trough over Mexico, most of the guidance suggest
that the cyclone will be left behind in a couple of days southwest
of the coast of Mexico due to the trough moving away. Marty would
then drift west-northwestward in the low-level flow as a weaker
cyclone. The NHC forecast has shifted eastward in the first couple
of days, then westward at longer range with more model guidance
showing the solution where the cyclone is left behind. This is an
uncertain forecast, however, and it wouldn't take much of a
deviation for stronger winds to approach the coast. A tropical
storm watch could be issued for a portion of the coast of Mexico on
Sunday morning.

Marty is currently in an environment of light wind shear, high mid-
level moisture and very warm waters. These favorable conditions
should last for the next 24-36 hours and promote intensification
during that time. While none of the deterministic guidance shows
rapid intensification, the SHIPS-RI index shows about a 70 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in the first 24 hours. The intensity
forecast is set at the upper end of the guidance, about 5 kt above
the previous prediction through 36 hours. After that time, almost
all of the global models show a significant increase in
southwesterly shear, which should cause Marty to weaken and probably
dissipate by day 5. The official forecast is very close to the
previous one and the intensity consensus after 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.6N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 14.2N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 15.4N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 15.8N 102.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 16.2N 102.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 16.5N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:04 am

TXPZ27 KNES 270607
TCSENP

A. 17E (MARTY)

B. 27/0545Z

C. 13.9N

D. 103.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3 WH BAND. PT=2.0. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0340Z 13.7N 103.1W AMSU
27/0435Z 13.9N 103.2W AMSU


...SCHWARTZ
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#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:04 am

Code: Select all

EP, 17, 2015092700,   , BEST,   0, 136N, 1031W,  40, 1003, TS,  34, NEQ,   60,   70,    0,   20, 1008,  175,  40,  45,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,  SEVENTEEN, M, 12, NEQ,   30,   30,    0,    0, DISSIPATED, ep172015 to ep932015, TRANSITIONED, epE32015 to ep172015,
EP, 17, 2015092706,   , BEST,   0, 141N, 1031W,  45, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,   60,   70,    0,   20, 1008,  150,  30,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARTY, M,


Up to 45 knts, with 0z intensity up to 40 knots.

EP, 17, 201509270436, 31, ASCT, CIR, , 1400N, 10310W, , 1, 45, 1, , 3, , 34, NEQ, 60, 70, 0, 20, , , , , 3, , , , NHC, RJB, , , , , , , , , ASCT, 34, NEQ, 60, 70, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , , , , 3, ASCAT-B

Supports 50. It's time for the NHC to start factoring in the low bias of the instrument more off. However, the NHC has done a good job not getting caught up into the low SAB numbers and actually recognizing ASCAT.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:07 am

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  27 SEP 2015    Time :   054500 UTC
      Lat :   13:48:57 N     Lon :  102:55:34 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.0 /1000.6mb/ 45.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                2.9     3.0     4.4

 Center Temp : -60.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -73.9C


TAFB:

Code: Select all

EP, 17, 201509270545,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1400N, 10300W,      , 3,  45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  JL,    I, 5, 3030 /////,      ,   , GOES13,  CSC, T, 0340Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED CENTER NEAR 13.8N 103.1 WITH
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:35 am

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that Marty's maximum winds
have increased to 45 kt. The center is embedded beneath a
persistent burst of deep convection, and strong convective bands
trail to the south and southwest of the central dense overcast.
The structure suggests there could be a little bit of westerly
shear, which UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS diagnostics are showing to be
about 10-15 kt.

Marty is over sea surface temperatures of at least 30 degrees
Celsius, and the vertical shear is expected to be steady for the
next 24 hours or so. These conditions should allow the cyclone to
continue strengthening, and in fact, rapid intensification is a
possibility. The SHIPS RI guidance is showing a 64 percent chance
of a 25-kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours, and the
SHIPS and LGEM models bring Marty at or just below hurricane
intensity at that time. The dynamical models are a little bit
less aggressive with the future intensity, but given that Marty is
already a little stronger from the get-go, the more aggressive
statistical guidance seems to be the more likely scenario.
Vertical shear is expected to increase by 36 hours, which is
expected to lead to a quick weakening trend during the latter part
of the forecast period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is
adjusted upward a bit through 48 hours to account for the higher
initial intensity and the latest guidance, and is actually very
similar to the Florida State Superensemble.

Marty is located to the west of a mid-level ridge which extends
across Central America, and to the south of a deep-layer trough
located over Mexico and the southern United States. This pattern
is steering the cyclone northward, or 360/5 kt. Marty should turn
northeastward but slow down during the next 48 hours as the
steering currents weaken. After the vertical shear increases,
possibly displacing the deep convection away from the center, the
circulation is expected to stall and then turn westward between
days 3 through 5, keeping the center just offshore of the coast of
Mexico. The GFS and the NAVGEM are the only models that bring
Marty inland over Mexico, but these solutions do not appear likely
at this time, especially since even the GFS ensemble mean stays
offshore. Despite these model differences, no significant changes
were required to the NHC track forecast from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 14.3N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 15.0N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 15.6N 102.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 16.0N 102.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 16.2N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 16.5N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 17.0N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 16.5N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#28 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:38 am

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#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:19 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 271457
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

First-light visible imagery shows that Marty has developed a
central dense overcast with a large outer convective band in the
eastern semicircle. A recent SSM/IS overpass showed a well-defined
convective band, but did not show an eye or eyewall underneath the
overcast. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 35 kt to 65 kt, so the initial intensity is
raised to 50 kt as a compromise. The cirrus outflow is good to the
east but non-existent to the west, likely due to the the effects of
20 kt of westerly vertical shear.

Marty remains in a moist airmass and over sea surface temperatures
of near 30C. However, all of the dynamical guidance suggests the
cyclone should experience increasing shear during the next 72
hours. The guidance is in agreement that Marty should strengthen
for another 24 hours or so, followed by significant weakening.
Based on this, the new intensity forecast is an update of the
previous forecast. However, it should be noted that this is a low
confidence forecast due to uncertainty over how much land
interaction may occur as Marty approaches the coast of Mexico.

The initial motion is 015/6. Marty is located to the west of a
mid-level ridge which extends across Central America, and to the
south of a deep-layer trough located over Mexico and the southern
United States. The cyclone should turn northeastward at a slower
forward speed during the next 24-48 hours based on the consensus of
the track guidance. After that time, there is some divergence in
the guidance. The GFS moves Marty northeastward over Mexico. On
the other hand, the ECMWF and UKMET forecast Marty to shear apart,
with the low-level center turning westward and remaining offshore.
Based on the guidance and the current trends, the new track
forecast is similar to the previous forecast in that it keeps Marty
offshore through the forecast period. However, it is shifted
closer to the coast than the previous forecast.

A tropical storm warning may be required for portions of the coast
of Mexico later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 15.4N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 16.0N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 16.3N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 17.5N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

Why isn't SAB being thrown out?
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#30 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:39 am

Does anyone else see the evil face in the CDO or is it just my eyes that fool me?Image
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#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:48 pm

I like Beven, but idk what on earth he's thinking right now.


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 271746
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...MARTY MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 102.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco, Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 102.8 West. Marty is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed are expected
tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Marty
is forecast to approach but remain offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and could
become a hurricane by tonight. Weakening is expected to begin
Monday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Monday night.

RAINFALL: Marty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches across the
Mexican state of Guerrero through Tuesday. These rains are
expected to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#32 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:40 pm

Wow, even Marty is getting decapitated by the shear, COC is on the far western side of the convection.
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 27, 2015 3:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

Visible imagery shows that Marty has lost organization during the
past several hours due to 20-25 kt of westerly shear. The low-level
center is now partly exposed to the southwest of the convection, and
the thunderstorm activity has decreased in both coverage and
intensity. A partial ASCAT-B overpass showed winds near 50 kt just
northwest of the center, and based on this the initial intensity
remains 50 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 005/3. Marty is located
to the west of a mid-level ridge which extends across Central
America, and to the south of a deep-layer trough located over Mexico
and the southern United States. The track guidance continues to
forecast a slow northeastward motion during the next 36 hours or so.
After that, there continues to be divergence in the guidance. The
GFS, Canadian, and NAVGEM models forecast Marty to move inland over
Mexico, while the UKMET and ECMWF show the system shearing apart,
with the low-level center turning westward. The track forecast
favors the latter scenario and shows Marty making a westward turn
and staying offshore. The new forecast track is again similar to
the previous advisory.

Marty remains in a moist airmass and over sea surface temperatures
of near 30C. However, all of the dynamical guidance suggests the
cyclone should experience significant shear during the next 72
hours. While several of the dynamical models still call for Marty
to become a hurricane, the SHIPS and LGEM models now forecast a peak
intensity of about 55 kt. Given that the guidance and the current
trends, the intensity forecast is lowered from the previous forecast
and no longer calls for Marty to become a hurricane. From 36-72
hours, all of the guidance forecast weakening, and the new forecast
follows suit in calling for Marty to become a depression by 72 hours
and a remnant low by 120 hours. The remnant low forecast is
somewhat uncertain, as there is a chance that the shear may decrease
by 120 hours.

A tropical storm warning may still be required for portions of the
coast of Mexico later tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.1N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 15.6N 102.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 16.1N 102.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.9N 101.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 17.0N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 3:40 pm

Ummm, doesn't ASCAT have a low bias???? Why isn't that being factored in? The intensities by the RMSC's today have been beyond baffling IMO.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#35 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 27, 2015 3:40 pm

The East Pacific has really not impressed me at all as of lately. :roll:
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Re:

#36 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:19 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Does anyone else see the evil face in the CDO or is it just my eyes that fool me?[img ]http://i.imgur.com/ZDfonRC.jpg[/img]
Yep. :lol:
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#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:48 pm

:uarrow: I actually agree, it's been fairly close to hurricane status for 12-18 hours.
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

Recent infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a
strong burst of deep convection has developed in the northwestern
quadrant of the circulation, with very cold cloud tops having spread
southwestward over the previously exposed low-level circulation
center. This increase in Marty's cloud pattern suggests that the
cyclone has strengthened despite moderate to strong westerly
vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 55
kt based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from
both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is an uncertain 360/02 kt. Overall, Marty doesn't
appear to have moved much, if at all, since the previous advisory.
Steering currents are weak since the cyclone is embedded in the base
of a broad deep-layer trough that extends from the Texas coast
southward across central Mexico and into the eastern North Pacific.
Only a slow north or northeastward drift if expected for the next
two days. The high terrain of southern Mexico is likely helping to
induce a narrow ridge just offshore the Pacific coast, which should
prevent the cyclone from gaining much latitude. The global and
regional models, excluding the GFS model, maintain some degree of
low- to mid-level ridging throughout the forecast period, which
gradually forces Marty on a westward track over water after 48
hours. In contrast, the GFS model marches the cyclone inland over
Mexico in about 48 hours, but this is considered to be an outlier
scenario since the GFS-Ensemble Mean keeps Marty well offshore
similar to the ECMWF and the other model solutions. The official
forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous track
through 72 hours, and then is a little slower than the previous
advisory after that as per the latest TVCE consensus model solution.

The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding Marty
are expected to essentially remain unchanged for the next 24 hours
or so. As a result, little change in intensity is expected during
that time. In the 36-48 hour time period, however, the global models
are forecasting the vertical wind shear to back around to the
southwest and increase to around 25 kt, which should induce steady
weakening through at least 72 hours. By 96 hours, the shear is
forecast to sharply decrease to around 10 kt or less, possibly
giving Marty a chance to re-strengthen on days 4 and 5 if a decent
low-level circulation still remains at that time. The new NHC
intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory in
calling for Marty to become a depression by around 96 hours and a
remnant low by 120 hours. However, the remnant low forecast is still
somewhat uncertain.

Given that Marty has slowed down considerably and is expected to
move somewhat little slower than indicated in the previous advisory,
a tropical storm warning is not necessary at this time. However, a
tropical storm warning could be required for portions of the coast
of Mexico by Monday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 15.3N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 15.7N 102.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 16.6N 102.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.8N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 16.9N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 17.0N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 17.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#39 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:44 pm

:uarrow: Hurricane or no Hurricane the biggest threat for the southern Mexican coast near Acapulco will be the torrential rains which could cause some dangerous mud slides, even if it does not make landfall the shear will keep pushing most of the convection towards the coastal areas.
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#40 Postby NotoSans » Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:21 am

I don't think it's near hurricane strength. The center is exposed to the west of the deep convection. I would say 55 kt is the best estimate based on ASCAT.

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