EPAC:- MARTY - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:06 am

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
400 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

The tropical cyclone is producing a large area of deep convection
and cloud tops colder than -80 degrees Celsius. Although the
low-level center is embedded within the cold cloud canopy, earlier
microwave data showed that it was located slightly west of the
convection due to some westerly shear. Subjective and objective
T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, so the
initial wind speed has been increased to 60 kt.

Based on the recent satellite and microwave fixes the initial
motion is estimated to be 360/2 kt. Marty remains in an area of
weak steering currents, as the tropical cyclone is embedded within
the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward
from the eastern Texas coast. The tropical storm is forecast to
drift northward or northeastward during the next day or so. The
model guidance is in disagreement on how close Marty will get to the
coast of Mexico during the next 36-48 hours. The GFS continues to
take Marty inland, while the GFS ensemble mean and the ECMWF show
less of a northeastward motion and keep the tropical cyclone
offshore. The latest runs of the GFDL and HWRF have trended
eastward and both models show landfall in a couple of days. The NHC
track will remain between these various solutions, close to the GFS
ensemble mean and the Florida State Superensemble during the first
36 to 48 hours. After that time, the upper-level trough is forecast
to lift northeastward, while a ridge builds over northwestern
Mexico. This should cause Marty to move westward or west-
northwestward between 72 and 120 hours.

The tropical storm is expected to remain in an environment of
moderate westerly shear during the next 12-24 hours, and little
change in strength is expected in the short term. Increasing
vertical shear and potentially cooler SSTs due to upwelling are
expected to cause a gradual decrease in strength beginning on
Tuesday. Weakening should then continue throughout the remainder of
the forecast period while Marty remains in an area of moderate to
strong southwesterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast is a little
below the statistical guidance during the first 24 hours, but
follows a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models during the remainder of
the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 15.6N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 16.0N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 16.6N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 16.9N 102.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 17.0N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 17.5N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:59 am

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

Marty continues to produce a large area of deep convection,
although the overall convective appearance is a little stretched.
Microwave data show that, while the center is embedded within the
convection, the southwesterly portion of the circulation is
partially exposed due to the southwesterly shear. The initial wind
speed remains 60 kt, a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the
area for the afternoon advisory to get a better estimate of the
winds.

The storm is drifting northward, caught in an area of weak steering
currents while embedded within the base of a mid- to upper-level
trough that extends southwestward from the eastern Texas coast. The
tropical storm is forecast to drift northeastward during the next
day or so, but the model guidance remains in disagreement on how
close Marty will get to the coast of Mexico during the next 36-48
hours. The GFS and HWRF take Marty inland, while the GFS and ECMWF
ensemble means keep the tropical cyclone farther offshore. Usually
with such different guidance from reasonable models it makes good
sense to stay close to the model consensus, which results in little
net change to the NHC forecast during the first 36 to 48 hours.
After that time, the mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to lift
northeastward, while a ridge builds over northwestern Mexico. This
should cause Marty to move westward or west-northwestward between
72 and 120 hours, and the official forecast is a little farther
westward at those times.

Little change in strength is expected with Marty over the next day
or so while the storm remains in an environment of moderate
west-southwesterly shear. Increasing vertical shear and potentially
cooler SSTs due to upwelling are expected to cause a gradual
weakening to begin on Tuesday. This trend should then continue
throughout the remainder of the forecast period while Marty remains
in an area of moderate-to-strong southwesterly shear. Most of the
guidance, except the ECMWF, shows the cyclone dissipating by day
5 due to the persistent shear. The latest NHC forecast is a blend
of the previous one and the intensity consensus, although I
consider it more uncertain than normal at long range due to the
track uncertainities.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 16.1N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 16.3N 102.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 16.6N 102.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 16.8N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 17.0N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 17.3N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 18.0N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#43 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:12 pm

The plane has crossed Mexico and is on the way to TS Marty.

Image
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#44 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:40 pm

First center pass: 985 mb, 62kt max FL wind at 700 mb, 70 kt max SFMR but likely rain contaminated
Image

URPN15 KNHC 281816
AF300 0117E MARTY HDOB 31 20150928
180730 1605N 10217W 6970 03136 0018 +113 +004 250038 039 036 001 00
180800 1606N 10217W 6972 03133 0032 +099 +004 251037 040 037 001 00
180830 1608N 10218W 6967 03133 0029 +099 +002 249042 044 036 001 00
180900 1610N 10218W 6968 03131 0034 +093 +001 259049 051 033 003 00
180930 1612N 10218W 6959 03135 0032 +088 -003 251053 055 032 005 00
181000 1613N 10219W 6968 03115 0024 +090 -007 256053 056 032 006 00
181030 1615N 10219W 6962 03111 0021 +082 -011 262052 054 030 008 00
181100 1617N 10219W 6981 03081 0018 +079 -014 265058 061 033 007 00
181130 1619N 10220W 6963 03101 9994 +090 -015 265062 062 035 006 00
181200 1620N 10220W 6970 03085 9970 +106 -014 265058 062 037 004 00
181230 1622N 10220W 6970 03077 9954 +113 -012 267059 060 036 002 00
181300 1623N 10220W 6962 03080 9945 +114 -008 261057 060 038 001 00
181330 1625N 10221W 6960 03075 9933 +115 -004 255051 054 038 001 00
181400 1627N 10221W 6969 03057 9909 +129 -001 249047 051 038 001 00
181430 1629N 10221W 6968 03050 9893 +134 +002 256032 040 033 000 00
181500 1631N 10222W 6971 03036 9871 +145 +007 251026 030 028 001 00
181530 1632N 10222W 6962 03043 9864 +146 +011 254015 022 023 000 03
181600 1634N 10223W 6964 03037 9854 +151 +014 240005 012 023 000 03
181630 1636N 10224W 6965 03037 9878 +132 +016 085011 017 031 001 00
181700 1637N 10225W 6964 03046 9891 +128 +016 067024 027 039 001 00

URPN15 KNHC 281827
AF300 0117E MARTY HDOB 32 20150928
181730 1638N 10226W 6964 03050 9892 +130 +015 062027 028 048 003 00
181800 1640N 10228W 6969 03051 9918 +115 +014 050035 036 068 010 00
181830 1641N 10229W 6958 03069 9958 +087 +011 066037 042 070 020 03
181900 1642N 10230W 6960 03084 9983 +081 +003 072042 044 067 014 03
181930 1644N 10232W 6973 03079 9996 +082 -007 066038 041 063 013 00
182000 1645N 10233W 6960 03102 0005 +082 -013 062036 037 060 009 03
182030 1646N 10234W 6961 03107 0027 +072 -016 058038 040 057 012 03
182100 1648N 10236W 6959 03123 0046 +067 -018 052038 040 054 015 03
182130 1649N 10237W 6963 03123 0059 +062 -020 030040 044 053 018 03
182200 1650N 10238W 6963 03126 0066 +060 -022 009050 055 051 019 03
182230 1651N 10239W 6970 03119 0030 +088 -023 006060 061 052 009 00
182300 1652N 10240W 6970 03120 0033 +088 -021 010058 059 051 006 00
182330 1653N 10241W 6965 03127 0042 +080 -018 007051 056 051 001 00
182400 1654N 10243W 6970 03124 0038 +087 -016 004046 048 053 004 00
182430 1655N 10244W 6969 03125 0037 +085 +010 007045 050 052 005 00
182500 1656N 10245W 6968 03125 0021 +142 //// 001043 044 053 005 01
182530 1657N 10246W 6967 03130 0016 +240 //// 003047 049 052 005 01
182600 1658N 10247W 6965 03135 0026 +296 //// 006048 049 052 005 01
182630 1659N 10248W 6971 03129 0022 +270 //// 010046 047 048 027 01
182700 1701N 10249W 6961 03144 0034 +098 +030 014043 047 043 006 00
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#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:10 pm

Another hurricane.

EP, 17, 2015092818, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1024W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 40, 70, 1009, 140, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARTY, D,
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#46 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:33 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 281926
AF300 0117E MARTY HDOB 38 20150928
191730 1614N 10244W 6965 03132 //// +086 //// 306034 037 019 000 01
191800 1615N 10243W 6962 03132 //// +092 //// 302037 039 024 000 01
191830 1616N 10241W 6968 03124 //// +095 //// 306037 039 034 001 01
191900 1617N 10239W 6961 03131 //// +098 //// 292036 037 036 000 01
191930 1618N 10238W 6967 03120 //// +109 //// 291036 037 036 000 01
192000 1619N 10236W 6967 03115 //// +121 //// 309038 039 037 001 01
192030 1620N 10234W 6967 03114 //// +106 //// 300039 040 044 004 01
192100 1621N 10233W 6962 03118 //// +101 //// 289044 046 049 005 01
192130 1622N 10231W 6967 03107 //// +102 //// 287051 053 051 005 01
192200 1623N 10229W 6967 03101 //// +102 //// 290056 058 053 003 01
192230 1624N 10227W 6969 03090 //// +107 //// 295059 061 054 002 01
192300 1625N 10225W 6963 03087 //// +109 //// 299067 071 053 000 01
192330 1626N 10223W 6964 03077 //// +124 //// 296061 071 054 001 01
192400 1627N 10222W 6965 03073 //// +131 //// 299047 054 054 000 01
192430 1628N 10220W 6962 03064 //// +128 //// 292046 047 041 000 01
192500 1630N 10219W 6960 03056 //// +129 //// 288045 047 033 001 01
192530 1631N 10217W 6966 03041 //// +136 //// 276035 043 030 000 05
192600 1632N 10216W 6966 03036 //// +144 //// 271027 032 024 000 01
192630 1634N 10215W 6965 03031 //// +148 //// 270024 025 022 000 01
192700 1636N 10214W 6959 03037 //// +146 //// 257018 023 021 000 05
$$
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#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:40 pm

70 anyone?

000
URPN15 KNHC 281936
AF300 0117E MARTY HDOB 39 20150928
192730 1637N 10214W 6966 03026 //// +153 //// 194003 013 028 000 01
192800 1639N 10215W 6967 03026 //// +151 //// 109011 015 039 001 01
192830 1641N 10215W 6967 03031 //// +140 //// 094029 034 043 002 05
192900 1642N 10214W 6957 03047 //// +132 //// 090032 034 068 007 01
192930 1643N 10213W 6965 03039 //// +104 //// 103030 033 070 008 01
193000 1645N 10212W 6963 03050 //// +086 //// 126038 043 069 008 01
193030 1646N 10211W 6946 03073 //// +080 //// 143057 063 066 011 05
193100 1647N 10209W 6994 03023 //// +066 //// 134059 064 057 019 05
193130 1648N 10208W 6954 03081 //// +060 //// 131060 062 055 040 01
193200 1649N 10207W 6956 03088 //// +065 //// 135052 061 049 025 01
193230 1650N 10206W 6963 03085 //// +055 //// 137049 054 049 022 05
193300 1651N 10204W 6965 03092 //// +056 //// 136053 055 053 010 05
193330 1653N 10203W 6967 03092 //// +054 //// 134055 057 052 011 05
193400 1654N 10202W 6969 03095 //// +053 //// 135056 059 050 012 01
193430 1655N 10200W 6966 03103 //// +068 //// 141050 055 051 019 01
193500 1656N 10159W 6950 03116 //// +075 //// 148057 066 052 025 01
193530 1657N 10158W 6987 03061 //// +069 //// 154063 066 054 031 05
193600 1658N 10156W 6961 03091 //// +063 //// 164054 062 057 021 05
193630 1700N 10155W 6951 03114 //// +081 //// 162062 064 055 018 05
193700 1701N 10153W 6968 03098 //// +060 //// 152056 064 054 023 01
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#48 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:55 pm

I'd go with 70kts.
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Hurricane

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:45 pm

It is 70kts.

HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
400 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data was very helpful with both
the positioning and intensity of Marty this afternoon. The data
show that Marty has become a hurricane, with SFMR winds of 70 kt
observed, which will be used as the initial wind speed.

The aircraft fix position was about 30 n mi to the northeast of my
previous estimate. Consequently, based on the aircraft fix data and
a longer-term motion -- Marty appears to be moving northeastward at
about 5 kt. Guidance has all shifted northeastward, with the
hurricane likely to move very near the coast of Mexico on Tuesday,
and a number of models move the cyclone inland. While the consensus
is still offshore, the official forecast follows the trend of the
guidance by bringing Marty within 20 n mi of the coast. This change
necessitates a Hurricane Warning for the coast of south-central
Mexico. If the cyclone survives land interaction with the high
terrain, a ridge is forecast to build over Mexico, which should
cause Marty to move westward or west-northwestward after 48 hours.

Increasing vertical wind shear is expected to cause a gradual
weakening of Marty by Tuesday. This trend should then continue
throughout the remainder of the forecast period while Marty remains
in an area of moderate or strong southwesterly shear, and
potentially interacts with land. Most of the guidance, except the
ECMWF, continues to shows the cyclone dissipating by day 5 due to
the strong shear. The forecast intensity is raised in the short term
due to the initial increase in wind speed, then is blended with the
intensity consensus at long range. It is possible that Marty could
weaken a lot faster than shown below if it gets closer to Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 16.7N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 16.8N 101.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 17.3N 101.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 17.5N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 17.8N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Hurricane

#50 Postby Socalsgrl » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:13 pm

"Does anyone else see the evil face in the CDO or is it just my eyes that fool me?"

Yep I see it too!
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#51 Postby Darvince » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:31 pm

This storm keeps teasing me with hints of an eye, yet no eye...

Image

It also looks to be getting much smaller. Could we see it strengthen further as it gets smaller?
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#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:39 pm

There's a closed eyewall on microwave, but it's ragged. Shear does not favor much intensification, but I would not rule out the possibly of the eye clearing overnight.
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Hurricane

#53 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:22 pm

HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

Marty's convective cloud pattern has been steadily shrinking over
the past few hours, accompanied by a sharp decrease in cloud top
temperatures. In addition, a 29/0002 UTC AMSU overpass indicates
that the low-level and mid-/upper-level circulations are starting to
decouple, with the low-level center lagging back to the west as a
result of strong westerly vertical wind shear impinging on the small
hurricane. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on
a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 from TAFB and
T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T4.0.

Microwave data over the past few hours indicate that Marty has
slowed and turned toward the east-northeast, and is now moving
070/03 kt. There remains a distinct bifurcation in the model
guidance with the GFS, HRWF, UKMET, NAVGEM, moving a stronger Marty
steadily east-northeastward and inland over Mexico in 24-36 hours,
whereas the ECMWF, GFS-Ensemble Mean, GFDL, and GFDN models keep a
weaker Marty offshore before turning it westward at around 48 hours.
Given the recent sharp downward trend in the convective structure of
Marty, along with an expected increase in the deep-layer vertical
wind shear to 25-30 kt by 18-24 hours, the official forecast leans
toward the weaker and more westward model solutions, which is
consistent with the previous advisory and the consensus model TVCE.

With vertical shear values of 30 kt or greater expected in the
12-36 hour period, steady weakening appears likely during that
time period. After that time, additional weakening is likely due to
the expected shallow vortex having a difficult time regenerating and
maintaining deep convection within a progressively drier mid-level
environment. Proximity to the mountainous landmass of south-central
Mexico could also provide a potential weakening factor. The new NHC
intensity forecast follows the weakening trend of the previous
advisory, and lies close to the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 16.7N 102.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 16.8N 101.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.9N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 17.2N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 17.4N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 17.6N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:07 am

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

Conventional satellite imagery shows a rapid decay of the deep
convection overnight, and that convection is now separated to the
east of the partially exposed surface circulation center. The 20-30
kt of westerly shear indicated on the UW-CIMSS analysis is
drastically affecting the vertical structure of the cyclone as well,
as seen in microwave imagery. As a result, the initial intensity is
decreased to 55 kt based on a compromise of the subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. Strong, persistent,
vertical shear and possibly upwelling of cooler waters should cause
the cyclone to quickly weaken to a depression in 36 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low in 2 days. With the exception of the
ECMWF and UKMET models, which show the cyclone lingering as a
remnant low beyond day 4, all of the other large- scale models, and
the statistical-dynamical guidance, show dissipation in 4 days or
less. The NHC forecast follows the latter scenario, and also shows
the cyclone weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours.

Marty has been moving a bit erratically during the past 6 hours, and
the best motion estimate is a temporary drift toward the east.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate that this motion,
within the weak steering flow produced by a mid-level trough to the
northwest of the cyclone, should continue through today. Afterward,
Marty is expected to turn back toward the northwest and west-
northwest as a shallow, weaker cyclone, during the next 36 hours as
a low to mid-level high pressure ridge builds over southern Mexico.
The official forecast is weighted heavily on the TVCX multi-model
consensus and is a little bit faster and to the south of the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 16.4N 101.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 16.5N 101.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.7N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 16.9N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 17.2N 103.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:37 am

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

Satellite imagery and data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco
indicate that Marty continues to lose organization due to the
effects of 30 kt of westerly shear. The convection is occurring in
episodic bursts, and the low-level center is located near the
southwestern edge of the bursts. The initial intensity is decreased
to 50 kt based on 1200 UTC satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB and the subsequent decay in the cloud pattern.

Marty continues to drift erratically with the initial motion now
120/3. The mid- to upper-level trough north of the system is
starting to weaken and split, with an upper-level low developing
northwest of Marty and a mid-level ridge developing north of the
storm. This evolution should result in Marty beginning a west-
northwestward to westward motion during the next 24-48 hours, and
all the guidance that does not quickly dissipate the cyclone
supports this scenario. The new forecast track is a little south of
the previous track based on the initial position, and it is also
faster in moving Marty westward. However, it is slower than the
model consensus. On the new forecast track, it is less likely that
the center of Marty will make landfall on the coast of Mexico.

The dynamical models forecast the current shear to continue for the
next 36-48 hours, which should cause Marty to steadily, if not
rapidly, weaken. The new intensity forecast, which is in best
agreement with the LGEM model, is an update of the previous forecast
in calling for Marty to weaken to a tropical depression in 24-36
hours and then degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It
should be noted that this forecast lies on the upper edge of the
intensity guidance envelope, so Marty could weaken faster than
currently forecast. One extra day has been added to the remnant low
phase based on the forecasts from the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 16.2N 101.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.8N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 16.9N 104.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show that the
westerly shear over Marty has increased to 35 kt, which is
disrupting the structure of the cyclone. Satellite imagery and
data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco indicate a new burst of
convection in curved bands has developed to the northeast of the
center. However, so far this burst is smaller than the previous
one. The initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt in agreement
with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

After moving a little to the east earlier today, the latest
satellite and radar data suggest that the center is now drifting
northward with an initial motion of 000/2. The mid- to upper-level
trough north of the system is weakening and splitting, with an
upper-level low developing northwest of Marty and a mid-level ridge
developing north of the storm. This evolution should result in
Marty beginning a west-northwestward to westward motion during the
next 12-24 hours, and all of the track guidance supports this
scenario. The new forecast track is similar to, but faster than the
previous track. However, it is again slower than the model
consensus.

Continued moderate to strong shear should cause maintain steady to
rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast, which is in best
agreement with the LGEM model, is an update of the previous forecast
and calls for Marty to weaken to a tropical depression in 24 hours
and then degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. It should be
noted that this forecast again lies on the upper edge of the
intensity guidance envelope, so Marty could weaken faster than
currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 16.6N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.7N 103.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z 16.8N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#57 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:22 pm

Looks like Marty is getting sucked up into Mexico towards the gulf.


Image
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#58 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:44 am

No additional ACE from Marty as he is now a TD.


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300842
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
400 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

An ASCAT pass several hours ago still indicated a few vectors with
tropical storm force winds, but since that time, the cloud
pattern has rapidly degenerated into a swirl of low clouds. Most of
the associated convection has moved to the northeast over Mexico.
On this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt.
Strong shear is forecast to continue over the cyclone, and the
intensity guidance calls for weakening and so does the NHC forecast.
The depression is expected to become a remnant low later today or
early Thursday, but could still produce intermittent bursts of
convection.

The swirl of low clouds associated with the center has been moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at about 4 kt. Most of the models
forecast a low or a trough moving westward away from the coast of
Mexico. This is the option indicated in the NHC forecast since the
cyclone has become a shallow system and will be steered westward by
the low-level flow for the next few days.

Since the cyclone has weakened and is moving away from the coast,
the government of Mexico has discontinued the watches and warnings.
However, very heavy rainfall associated with this system will
continue to affect portions of the state of Guerrero.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 16.1N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 16.2N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 16.2N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z 16.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Depression

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:38 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

1000 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Marty continues to produce minor, sporadic, bursts of deep
convection. Data from a 1605Z ASCAT pass showed that the maximum
winds have decreased to near 25 kt over a small area of the
northern semicircle. Marty is now forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low in 12 hours and the low is expected to dissipate a
couple of days thereafter. However, the scatterometer data
suggested that the circulation was already becoming elongated and
nearly open over the southwestern quadrant. If this trend
continues, the system could lose its identity as a surface cyclone
sooner than indicated in this forecast. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS guidance.

The slow westward motion of around 275/5 kt continues. A
mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should push Marty westward,
with slight increase in forward speed, for the next couple of days
before the circulation dissipates. The official track forecast is
roughly in the middle of the dynamical model guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 16.3N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 16.4N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 16.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 16.9N 106.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z 17.2N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Gallina
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Re: EPAC: MARTY - Tropical Depression

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:48 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172015
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

The convective organization has continued to deteriorate, but it
hasn't quite reached the point for the system to be declared a
remnant low pressure system. However, the current ragged appearance
of the shallow convection coupled with west-southwesterly vertical
wind shear of at least 20 kt should cause the depression to
degenerate into a remnant low within the next 6 to 12 hours. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
the latest SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance.

Marty still possesses a fairly tight low-level circulation as noted
in the last few visible satellite images and a 2132 UTC SSMI
microwave image, which has made the system fairly easy to locate.
As a result, the initial motion is now 285/07 kt. A mid-level ridge
located over northwestern and central Mexico is expected to force
Marty on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple
of days until the shallow cyclone dissipates by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous track
and lies close to the consensus model TCVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.6N 103.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 16.7N 104.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/0000Z 17.0N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1200Z 17.2N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z 17.5N 109.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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