ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cumulonimbus_Ca]

I think it's funny that this graphic shows multiple possible divergent track scenarios for Joaquin this weekend, in Europe:

"The scenarios for Joaquin's final track into Europe range from the system tracking toward the British Isles or turning into Spain or Portugal. Brief periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf will accompany Joaquin along both tracks."

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... e/52814313

[Hammy]

Any chance this can pull a Lili 1996 and stay a hurricane almost all the way to Europe?

[CrazyC83]

Any chance this can pull a Lili 1996 and stay a hurricane almost all the way to Europe?

This seems to have the right structure, but needs to stay lower in latitude where water is at least somewhat warmer.

[Lifeless]

Any chance this can pull a Lili 1996 and stay a hurricane almost all the way to Europe?

This seems to have the right structure, but needs to stay lower in latitude where water is at least somewhat warmer.

Especially as the waters off the west coast of the UK are particularly cold this year.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be making the transition to Extratropical should be post tropical tomorrow or thursday

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[CrazyC83]

Yeah it is north of 40 and clear of the Gulf Stream.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015

Satellite images indicate that Joaquin continues to slowly weaken.
The low-level center is now about half a degree west of the
mid-level circulation, with an area of deep convection noted.
Dvorak estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to
60 kt.

A gradual spin-down of the cyclone is expected while Joaquin moves
over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep convection
should probably disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, so
the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical at
that time. The cyclone will likely become a more classic
extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to
form near the center. The official intensity forecast is very close
to the previous one, and is in closest agreement with the GFS
forecast.

Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is
embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge.
This motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After
that time, the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone
should decelerate and turn east-southeastward due to it coming
under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western
Europe. The official forecast is adjusted southward, and is near a
blend of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and
beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 41.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 41.8N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z 42.6N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 09/0000Z 43.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 44.2N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 43.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 42.5N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[abajan]

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015

Joaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone.
The cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the
center partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep
convection. In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western
periphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming
better defined well northeast of the center. Earlier ASCAT data
still showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind
speed is held at 60 kt.

The storm should gradually lose strength while it moves over
progressively colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep
convection should disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C,
and Joaquin is expected to become post-tropical at that time. Global
models are in good agreement on the cyclone becoming a large
extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to
form near the center. The official intensity forecast is basically
an update of the previous one, and remains in close agreement with
the GFS forecast.

Joaquin is speeding eastward at 32 kt, embedded in strong westerly
flow north of the subtropical ridge, which should keep the cyclone
moving to the east or east-northeast at a slower forward speed for
another day or two. Thereafter, the cyclone should slow down even
more and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the
influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.
The guidance continues to migrate southward, and the official
forecast is moved in that direction, near a blend of the Florida
State Superensemble and the ECMWF models.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and
beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 41.5N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 42.0N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1800Z 42.7N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0600Z 43.6N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1800Z 43.8N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 43.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 41.5N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
______________________________________________________________

The forecast track has really changed over the last couple of days. Before it was headed in the general direction of the UK. Now it's headed for Portugal?



Also, I'm curious as to what effects the Azores will get from Joaquin.

[WeatherGuesser]

USCG to end formal search for the El Faro today.

[galaxy401]

The end.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015

...JOAQUIN HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 37.0W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Joaquin was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 37.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 35 mph (56
km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds associated with the post-tropical cyclone
are expected to spread over portions of the Azores on Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so. Swells affecting much of the
eastern coast of the United States are now mostly associated with a
non-tropical area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, and
these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in
association with these swells. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Joaquin. Future information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in
high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-m ... e/bulletin.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[CrazyC83]

Now that a storm to remember...

[emeraldislenc]

It was a very impressive storm one to remember.

[tropicana]

ONT50 LFPW 090720
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 448, FRIDAY 9 OCTOBER 2015 AT 0715 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, FRIDAY 9 AT 00 UTC.
LOW "EX-JOAQUIN" 989 44N25W, OR 860 MILES WNW OF PORTO, PORTUGAL MOVING EAST, EXPECTED 997 43N14W BY
10/12 UTC.

[tropicana]

ONT50 LFPW 091955
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 449, FRIDAY 9 OCTOBER 2015 AT 1950 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, FRIDAY 9 AT 12 UTC.
LOW "EX-JOAQUIN" 988 44N20W, OR 615 MILES WNW OF PORTO, PORTUGAL MOVING EAST, EXPECTED 997 43N14W BY
10/12 UTC, THEN 1001 42N12W BY 11/00UTC.

[tropicana]

FQNT50 LFPW 100907
A
SECURITE
Weather bulletin on METAREA 2,
METEO-FRANCE Toulouse, Saturday 10 October 2015 at 1015 UTC.

General synopsis, Saturday 10 at 00 UTC
Low "ex-JOAQUIN" 993 44N16W, or 615 miles WNW of Porto, Portugal moving southeast, expected 999 43N12W by
11/00 UTC, then 1003 42N11W by 11/12 UTC.

[wyq614]

Let's see if this will turn out into Mediterranean Sea.

[tropicana]

this is ex-Joaquin

WONT50 LFPW 101917
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 450, SATURDAY 10 OCTOBER 2015 AT 1915 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 10 AT 12 UTC.
LOW 997 43N14W, OR 305 MILES WNW OF PORTO, PORTUGAL SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST, EXPECTED 1003 JUST WEST
PORTUGAL BY 12/00UTC.

[WeatherGuesser]

"PORTUGAL SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST"


I have no idea what the steering currents are like out there, but is there any chance at all of it drifting far enough SW to get picked up, get stronger and move west again?

For that matter, has anything ever done that?

[tropicana]

ex-joaquin

WONT50 LFPW 110848
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 451, SUNDAY 11 OCTOBER 2015 AT 0845 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 11 AT 00 UTC.
LOW 1001 42N11W, or 140 MILES WEST OF PORTO, PORTUGAL SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST, EXPECTED 1002 39N10W BY
12/00UTC, THEN 1007 38N09W BY 12/12UTC.

[brunota2003]

Here is a graphic I put together using reported positions of El Faro from FleetMon through the night of Sept 30, along with the reported final position per Reuters/Weather Underground...against the track of Joaquin, using the current position on the actual advisories (since that is what the crew would be plotting, versus Best Track). At the time of the final position (07:56 on October 1), the ship and the 8 am advisory locations were only about 30 miles apart, with maximum sustained winds listed at 120 knots! Please note: looking at the return trip just prior to this voyage (only 3 days prior on the 27th of Sept), the ship was west of where it was during the return to Florida...about 100 miles west.