bahamaswx wrote:Just found a reliable Crooked Island report: all persons accounted for; no fatalities.
Definitely good to hear.
ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re:
Definitely good to hear.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate
overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the
eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The earlier
reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last
pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500
UTC. Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds
are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various
reconnaissance wind data. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should
provide a better assessment of Joaquin's intensity this morning.
Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started
to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is
still northeastward or 040/17 kt. The hurricane should turn
north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this
afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to
its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. After
passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then
east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude
westerlies. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous
advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster
guidance models.
Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some
weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to
remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later
today. Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the
hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment
of moderate shear. Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus
through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 29.7N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 31.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 33.7N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 35.5N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 37.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 41.8N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 50.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate
overnight with most of the deep convection now located over the
eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The earlier
reconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last
pass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500
UTC. Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds
are not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various
reconnaissance wind data. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should
provide a better assessment of Joaquin's intensity this morning.
Recent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started
to bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is
still northeastward or 040/17 kt. The hurricane should turn
north-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this
afternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to
its west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. After
passing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then
east-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude
westerlies. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous
advisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster
guidance models.
Moderate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some
weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to
remain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later
today. Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the
hurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment
of moderate shear. Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus
through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
Center at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 29.7N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 31.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 33.7N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 35.5N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 37.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 41.8N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 50.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
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northjaxpro
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Yeah, Joaquin may pass right over Bermuda. He is going to pass extremely close. They will see Cat 2 like conditions minimal on the island later today regardless.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 67.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 67.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Joaquin has been good about following the forecast track for a while now.
Even though Bermuda will be on the strong side of the storm it looks like it will be far enough west to keep the peak core winds from making landfall. Due to the relatively fast forward motion high wind gusts can occur hundreds of miles east of the center, hopefully everyone in danger from coastal surge has taken precautions.
Even though Bermuda will be on the strong side of the storm it looks like it will be far enough west to keep the peak core winds from making landfall. Due to the relatively fast forward motion high wind gusts can occur hundreds of miles east of the center, hopefully everyone in danger from coastal surge has taken precautions.
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Weatherwatcher98
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Pics from NJ has been insane.Nimbus wrote:Joaquin has been good about following the forecast track for a while now.
Even though Bermuda will be on the strong side of the storm it looks like it will be far enough west to keep the peak core winds from making landfall. Due to the relatively fast forward motion high wind gusts can occur hundreds of miles east of the center, hopefully everyone in danger from coastal surge has taken precautions.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Bermuda must have the worst luck in the Atlantic, how could an Island so small in the middle of the Atlantic get affected by hurricanes so many times.
It will be interesting to see what the recon finds in the SE quadrant of the storm, the area that Bermuda will most likely be in later today.
It will be interesting to see what the recon finds in the SE quadrant of the storm, the area that Bermuda will most likely be in later today.
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This video that was recorded in San Salvador is one of the most intense, those people were pretty brave for being so close to the unprotected windows.
http://youtu.be/rd_4CEt02ts
http://youtu.be/rd_4CEt02ts
Last edited by NDG on Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Floridagal
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Re:
NDG wrote:This video that was recorded in San Salvador is one of the most intense, those people were pretty brave for being so close to the unprotected windows.
http://youtu.be/rd_4CEt02ts
They were, but I know the feeling. I stood on my front patio while Charley passed over me because I had to see and know what was happening. Great video.
I came by because I too am wondering about any new reports out of the Bahamas. I'm hoping the best for all of them.
What an incredible storm. I've lurked here throughout for valuable insight and information. Had a couple of sleepless nights too.
I had hoped Joaquin would weaken some more before heading towards Bermuda, however his momentum over the last day seems to have worked against that.
I know nada.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
The overall cloud pattern of Joaquin has changed little since the
previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt and SFMR
surface wind values of 90 kt during its mission so far this morning,
so the initial intensity has been decreased to 95 kt for this
advisory. A ragged eye feature is just becoming apparent on
the Bermuda radar, with strong inner-core rain bands currently
located less than 50 nmi southwest of the island.
Recon center fixes indicate that Joaquin has made the expected turn
toward the north-northeast, and is now moving 030/15 kt. Joaquin is
forecast to move around the western portion of a modest mid-level
ridge to its east and ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer low
located over the southeastern United States. This is expected to
result in the hurricane moving toward the north-northeast today and
tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the
short term forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to pass
about 60 nmi west and northwest of Bermuda during the next 12-24
hours. By days 2-5, Joaquin is forecast to accelerate to the
east-northeast as the cyclone gets caught up in the fast
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory track, albeit slightly
slower, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model
guidance.
Excluding a slight respite this afternoon, the vertical wind shear
is forecast to increase during the next two days, with the mid-level
environment expected to dry out with humidity values decreasing to
around 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should result in
gradual weakening for the next 48 hours or so, followed by more
significant weakening on days 3-5 when Joaquin is expected to become
an extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic where SSTs are
20C-24C and vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. Extratropical
transition is forecast to occur by 96 hours, but it is possible that
it could sooner by around 72 hours as per guidance from the SHIPS
and LGEM statistical-dynamical models, and the EMCWF model. The
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
consensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center at 96 h and 120 h when the cyclone is
expected to be an extratropical low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015
The overall cloud pattern of Joaquin has changed little since the
previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt and SFMR
surface wind values of 90 kt during its mission so far this morning,
so the initial intensity has been decreased to 95 kt for this
advisory. A ragged eye feature is just becoming apparent on
the Bermuda radar, with strong inner-core rain bands currently
located less than 50 nmi southwest of the island.
Recon center fixes indicate that Joaquin has made the expected turn
toward the north-northeast, and is now moving 030/15 kt. Joaquin is
forecast to move around the western portion of a modest mid-level
ridge to its east and ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer low
located over the southeastern United States. This is expected to
result in the hurricane moving toward the north-northeast today and
tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the
short term forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to pass
about 60 nmi west and northwest of Bermuda during the next 12-24
hours. By days 2-5, Joaquin is forecast to accelerate to the
east-northeast as the cyclone gets caught up in the fast
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory track, albeit slightly
slower, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model
guidance.
Excluding a slight respite this afternoon, the vertical wind shear
is forecast to increase during the next two days, with the mid-level
environment expected to dry out with humidity values decreasing to
around 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should result in
gradual weakening for the next 48 hours or so, followed by more
significant weakening on days 3-5 when Joaquin is expected to become
an extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic where SSTs are
20C-24C and vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. Extratropical
transition is forecast to occur by 96 hours, but it is possible that
it could sooner by around 72 hours as per guidance from the SHIPS
and LGEM statistical-dynamical models, and the EMCWF model. The
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
consensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center at 96 h and 120 h when the cyclone is
expected to be an extratropical low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Google: 'Port Bermuda Live Cam' for shots of the dock with the waves coming up on it.
The worst of the core should pass just to the west.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The worst of the core should pass just to the west.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Lifeless
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Surprised by the relatively high winds when its post-tropical, its in their 4-5 day forecast sure but I would've thought that the storm would start being ripped apart as it approaches then UK. I guess it won't do that till its much closer to Europe than the forecast currently shows.
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Disclaimer: I am by no means even remotely a professional meteorologist, I'm just a Brit interested in tropical weather in the Atlantic. Always refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or National Weather Service (NWS) for professional advice.
Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:Google: 'Port Bermuda Live Cam' for shots of the dock with the waves coming up on it.
The worst of the core should pass just to the west.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I've been watching that webcam for 45 minutes, and conditions are rapidly deteriorating...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Yeah, and with several hundred people watching simultaneously, the live stream is rapidly deteriorating too (at least for me).TYNI wrote:Sanibel wrote:Google: 'Port Bermuda Live Cam' for shots of the dock with the waves coming up on it.
The worst of the core should pass just to the west.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I've been watching that webcam for 45 minutes, and conditions are rapidly deteriorating...
EDIT: Actually, the stream seems pretty good now.
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dixiebreeze
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
To my untrained eye, it looks like Joaquin has hooked slightly to the west or WNW on the latest IR. An alley way, so to speak for a shift in track?
ONLY AN AMATUER OPINON, NOT A FORECAST
ONLY AN AMATUER OPINON, NOT A FORECAST
Last edited by dixiebreeze on Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Slughitter3
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For those still interested here's the latest on the El Faro.
http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2607474/
Coast guard air assets have spotted containers, life jackets, life rings, and an oil sheen in the area where the El Faro was last reported. These items have not yet been confirmed to belong to the El Faro.
I'll keep posting as I get updates.
http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2607474/
Coast guard air assets have spotted containers, life jackets, life rings, and an oil sheen in the area where the El Faro was last reported. These items have not yet been confirmed to belong to the El Faro.
I'll keep posting as I get updates.
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I'm a weather-loving Coastie.
This post is only an opinion not a forecast. Please refer to the NHC and local NWS offices for forecasts.
Shawn
This post is only an opinion not a forecast. Please refer to the NHC and local NWS offices for forecasts.
Shawn
Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like a hurricane core on webcam. Waves over the dock.
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion
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M a r k
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