ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3081 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:13 pm

Joaquin is a demon. The core looks healthy and symmetrical again with a well developed eye. I think if it hit directly it would be a bad storm.



Last year Bermuda took a double west side hit from Hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3082 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:29 pm

The NHC stated in an earlier forecast that they thought Joaquin might swing due north "for a few hours" near Bermuda. Then in their latest forecast they noted that ridging to the northeast of Bermuda was weakening which would add some uncertainty to the forecast.

Does look like Joaquin has become better organized and is slowing down a little in forward speed.
Hopefully if there is a short term change in track it will be to the NNW.
The axis of cut off ULL is now over northern Florida rather than the Carolinas, don't know if that will have any influence on the ridging north of Joaquin though. Wouldn't have time to effect the track unless Joaquin stalled.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3083 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:47 pm

I know it can't be happening and it is just my eyes playing tricks on me, but it sure does look like Joaquin is turning west and heading around the northern edge of that cut off low.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
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#3084 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:57 pm

Mission from a bit earlier. The 957mb pressure was at 11:49am EDT.

Radar image from 1:39pm EDT:

Image

Visible satellite from 1:29pm EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3085 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:00 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I know it can't be happening and it is just my eyes playing tricks on me, but it sure does look like Joaquin is turning west and heading around the northern edge of that cut off low.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html


I agree and said that earlier.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3086 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:06 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

The NC outer banks are very evident in the NW corner of the IR









Not a forecast -- just an opinion
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#3087 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:06 pm

Mission from a bit earlier. The 957mb pressure was at 11:49am EDT.

2pm NHC position. 11am track.

AVN IR from 1:15pm EDT:

Image

Radar image from 1:59pm EDT:

Image
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#3088 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:12 pm

Interesting the pressure has started to decrease again. That likely won't make the winds stronger as it goes into higher latitude, but it should at least hold its intensity today.
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#3089 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:21 pm

Well the satellite presentation had definitely improved a bit for a little while, there appeared to be hints of a visible eye again early this morning. Starting to elongate a bit again... lots of really dry air also about to start wrapping in.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3090 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:47 pm

2:33pm EDT radar. 2:15pm EDT AVN IR satellite.

Image

2:49pm EDT radar. 2:15pm EDT visible satellite.

Image
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#3091 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:05 pm

Image
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#3092 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 3:28 pm

how weather their? i see wind going hurr force close in t Bermuda
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3093 Postby kat61 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:10 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:To my untrained eye, it looks like Joaquin has hooked slightly to the west or WNW on the latest IR. An alley way, so to speak for a shift in track?



thought I saw that too!!





ONLY AN AMATUER OPINON, NOT A FORECAST
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#3094 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:11 pm

Down to 85 kt. Passing west of Bermuda enough that it shouldn't be a huge event for them?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3095 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:49 pm

Looks like at category 2 at 90 miles distance on the webcam. It was worse before.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3096 Postby crimi481 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:39 pm

Just looking at this - almost looks like Jaoaq is merging it energy with the 2 lows near n. Florida. (1001 & 1002 mb)
Sure is a strange site?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3097 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 6:26 pm

crimi481 wrote:Just looking at this - almost looks like Jaoaq is merging it energy with the 2 lows near n. Florida. (1001 & 1002 mb)
Sure is a strange site?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html


the one low over Jacksonville I believe is our upper level low. The second low I believe is a developing nor'easter.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3098 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Oct 04, 2015 6:33 pm

That low was the one that the GFS was thinking would draw Jouaquin back into the coast earlier in the week. Still the crazy amount of rain and coastal flooding in the Carolinas (That's a huge stretch of I-95 to be closed in SC) is going to be forever tied to Joaquin, despite it only having a partial influence.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3099 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 04, 2015 6:39 pm

Radar presentation has improved significantly over the last few hours, convection has wrapped back around.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3100 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 6:41 pm

Hammy wrote:Radar presentation has improved significantly over the last few hours, convection has wrapped back around.


It is at least holding its intensity for now. Maybe even strengthening a bit?
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