ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3101 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 04, 2015 7:27 pm

Very time sensitive, but full Atlantic loop of Joaquin's life so far.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat/trop/atlsat-7day.html
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#3102 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 7:45 pm

Recon is still flying, it appears Joaquin has weakened to about 75 kt, although the pressure remains low at 961.
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#3103 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Recon is still flying, it appears Joaquin has weakened to about 75 kt, although the pressure remains low at 961.



Since no one is posting them anymore in the recon thread, where can I find the recon fixes at?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3104 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:39 pm

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3105 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:59 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Still the crazy amount of rain and coastal flooding in the Carolinas (That's a huge stretch of I-95 to be closed in SC) is going to be forever tied to Joaquin, despite it only having a partial influence.

Kids aged 4-8 will think it was Joaquin directly and will spread the misinformation or half truth. I hope I'm wrong.

Days ago, those structures on those islands were being so abused. Reminds me of the Bennington KS wedge EF4 tornado that just sat in the same place for 40 minutes and the general area for about a hour...what would it be like to be in the basement/shelter during that? I've seen the most prolonged dark greys from AVN on Cat Island from Joaquin, maybe someone will do something novel and different for once and send a camera crew down to the island and document the aftermath instead of leaving everything to people's imaginations *cough Monica cough*.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3106 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:44 pm

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This is completely unofficial, but here is how I would set the best track for Joaquin to this stage (in HURDAT2 format):

20150927, 1800, , TD, 27.2N, 68.5W, 30, 1007,
20150928, 0000, , TD, 27.3N, 68.6W, 30, 1006,
20150928, 0600, , TD, 27.4N, 68.9W, 30, 1006,
20150928, 1200, , TD, 27.5N, 69.3W, 30, 1005,
20150928, 1800, , TS, 27.2N, 69.9W, 35, 1004,
20150929, 0000, , TS, 26.8N, 70.1W, 40, 1000,
20150929, 0600, , TS, 26.5N, 70.3W, 40, 998,
20150929, 1200, , TS, 26.3N, 70.5W, 45, 995,
20150929, 1800, , TS, 26.0N, 70.8W, 55, 990,
20150930, 0000, , TS, 25.7N, 71.5W, 60, 984,
20150930, 0600, , HU, 25.5N, 71.8W, 65, 979,
20150930, 1200, , HU, 24.8N, 72.3W, 75, 971,
20150930, 1800, , HU, 24.4N, 72.8W, 85, 963,
20151001, 0000, , HU, 23.9N, 73.0W, 100, 951,
20151001, 0600, , HU, 23.5N, 73.5W, 105, 946,
20151001, 1200, L, HU, 23.1N, 73.7W, 110, 942, Landfall - Samana Cay
20151001, 1800, , HU, 23.0N, 74.2W, 115, 936,
20151002, 0000, , HU, 22.9N, 74.4W, 120, 931, Minimum pressure
20151002, 0600, , HU, 23.0N, 74.7W, 115, 936,
20151002, 1200, , HU, 23.3N, 74.8W, 110, 938,
20151002, 1600, L, HU, 23.6N, 74.8W, 105, 939, Landfall - Rum Cay
20151002, 1800, , HU, 23.8N, 74.8W, 105, 940,
20151002, 2215, L, HU, 24.1N, 74.5W, 105, 940, Landfall - W end of San Salvador Island
20151003, 0000, , HU, 24.3N, 74.3W, 105, 941,
20151003, 0600, , HU, 24.9N, 73.6W, 115, 943,
20151003, 1200, , HU, 25.4N, 72.6W, 125, 937,
20151003, 1500, W, HU, 25.9N, 71.9W, 135, 934, Maximum wind
20151003, 1800, , HU, 26.4N, 71.0W, 130, 936,
20151004, 0000, , HU, 27.4N, 69.5W, 110, 941,
20151004, 0600, , HU, 28.9N, 68.3W, 100, 949,
20151004, 1200, , HU, 30.4N, 67.1W, 95, 956,
20151004, 1800, , HU, 31.7N, 66.5W, 85, 957,
20151005, 0000, , HU, 32.6N, 65.8W, 75, 960,
20151005, 0600, , HU, 33.6N, 65.5W, 75, 961,
20151005, 1200, , HU, 34.6N, 64.9W, 80, 957,
20151005, 1800, , HU, 35.4N, 64.3W, 80, 957,
20151006, 0000, , HU, 36.4N, 63.4W, 75, 962,
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3107 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:59 pm

I think continental dry air finally got swirled into it.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3108 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:43 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This is completely unofficial, but here is how I would set the best track for Joaquin to this stage (in HURDAT2 format):

20151003, 1500, W, HU, 25.9N, 71.9W, 135, 934, Maximum wind

Another thing that was different was how bad this hurricane looked as a category 3/4 hurricane, a few days ago when it was still listed at over 110 knots it looked terrible. Never seen it (in the Atlantic).
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3109 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:02 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is completely unofficial, but here is how I would set the best track for Joaquin to this stage (in HURDAT2 format):

20151003, 1500, W, HU, 25.9N, 71.9W, 135, 934, Maximum wind

Another thing that was different was how bad this hurricane looked as a category 3/4 hurricane, a few days ago when it was still listed at over 110 knots it looked terrible. Never seen it (in the Atlantic).


Image
I wouldn't say it looked bad here. There were probably other storms as well that looked as poor as Joaquin looked over the Bahamas at that intensity, but were so far out that satellite classification identified them as being weaker.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3110 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:32 pm

Bermuda is still in the main band. You can see the webcam shaking.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3111 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:36 am

I'll tell you, we may not be getting Joaquin, but the rain and tidal surge is worse than I have ever seen over such a prolonged time here in SE NC. We have wide spread flooding in Brunswick County, and are still expecting another 3-5 inches tomorrow. Entire towns are having to be evacuated. This is the first time I can remember in my 43 years that Oak Island was under an evacuation order not for a hurricane. I almost wish that this front would have moved on and let Joaquin come in. I am feeling it would have been less disastrous. Charelston and Columbia in SC are getting it even worse.
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#3112 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:38 am

The damage reports out of some of these islands really are astounding. Most places are still completely flooded. It'll be a long time before they return to normal.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3113 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:06 am

All Air Force and NOAA recon into Joaquin:

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3114 Postby JahJa » Mon Oct 05, 2015 7:54 am

The good news is that Bermuda escaped unscathed. Quite a few people lost power but thankfully I was not one of them!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3115 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:00 am

JahJa wrote:The good news is that Bermuda escaped unscathed. Quite a few people lost power but thankfully I was not one of them!
That's great news! Looks like the winds were too much for the camera at the port though:

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

:)
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3116 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:47 am

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3117 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:46 am



I think it might have intensified some this morning...and I am guessing the pressure is lower now, probably in the low 950 range.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3118 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:03 pm

About 24 left of warm water.

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3119 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:04 pm

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#3120 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:31 pm

Seeing reports that the El Faro is confirmed down; large debris field, one body recovered, search ongoing.
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