ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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#41 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:28 am

An area of low pressure over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and an
upper-level low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico
are producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development as this system moves northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or two.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf
Coast and southeastern United States during the next several days.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system later today, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and products from your local National
Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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#42 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 27, 2015 3:07 am

It looks like some to of the naysayers may be right. Formation chances have went down from 40 to 30 percent . Still need to watch it though as it is the gulf. One it pulls parallel or north and east of the ull, it may have a better chance asi believe the ull would then help to ventilate.
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#43 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 27, 2015 3:21 am

I had though the ull was stationary but it appears to be pulling northeast which should make it even more difficult for this to get going.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#44 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 7:29 am

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Re:

#45 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:00 am

caneman wrote:I had though the ull was stationary but it appears to be pulling northeast which should make it even more difficult for this to get going.


As bad as the models have done in the medium range, at times, they do a very good job in the short range with their forecast calling for no development during the next couple of days because of a high shear environment.
This morning the broad surface low is over the Yucantan P with the convection well east of it.
The Euro did pretty good with this mess with forecasting a surface low developing near the ULL in the western GOM. No development here either.
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#46 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:02 am

floridasun78 wrote:if move ne you think south fl may more rain forecast now and look big area storm south of west tip Cuba may pass very near keywest


Most of the rains is east of the surface low because of shear so all of FL will be in a wet pattern at times through the next few days.
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#47 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:14 am

A bigger killer this season has been the mid level shear, not a pretty picture for 99L in the GOM.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#48 Postby boca » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:21 am

I think all of Florida including the SE coast might get rain from 99L because althought the system is moving north its inching east a bit down in the NW Caribbean.Thats what it looks like right now looking at the satelite pic.
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#49 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:31 am

Interesting write up from Tampa Bay nws. They are predicting rainfall in the 90 percentile range for sept. for tampa bay and south and say it could go higher. Ugh..and that is why it doesn't have to be a wind event to cause significant problems.
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Re:

#50 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:34 am

caneman wrote:Interesting write up from Tampa Bay nws. They are predicting rainfall in the 90 percentile range for sept. for tampa bay and south and say it could go higher. Ugh..and that is why it doesn't have to be a wind event to cause significant problems.
Yes I saw that and posted the link above. Very lengthy discussion
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#51 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:56 am

The one taking advantage of the ULL in eastern TX is TS Marty off the coast of southern MX, is enhancing its outflow in the NE quadrant and at the same time is creating 40-50 shear over the BOC that will be spreading over the central and northern GOM during the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#52 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:06 am

There is very strong SW flow aloft and tremendous shear across the Gulf. Doesn't look like 99 will be more than a broad weak low pressure area that races across the Gulf and moves inland by Tuesday morning.
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#53 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:10 am

Wxman57, that doesn't make us feel any better in the Tampa Bay area, especially if the copious amount of rainfall predicted happens.
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Re: Re:

#54 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:11 am

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
caneman wrote:Interesting write up from Tampa Bay nws. They are predicting rainfall in the 90 percentile range for sept. for tampa bay and south and say it could go higher. Ugh..and that is why it doesn't have to be a wind event to cause significant problems.
Yes I saw that and posted the link above. Very lengthy discussion
yes.indeed, i saw your link thanks for posting
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#55 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:13 am

wxman57 wrote:There is very strong SW flow aloft and tremendous shear across the Gulf. Doesn't look like 99 will be more than a broad weak low pressure area that races across the Gulf and moves inland by Tuesday morning.
Thank god for that ULL.
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Re: Re:

#56 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:13 am

caneman wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
caneman wrote:Interesting write up from Tampa Bay nws. They are predicting rainfall in the 90 percentile range for sept. for tampa bay and south and say it could go higher. Ugh..and that is why it doesn't have to be a wind event to cause significant problems.
Yes I saw that and posted the link above. Very lengthy discussion
yes.indeed, i saw your link thanks for posting

Your welcome Caneman
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Re:

#57 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:17 am

caneman wrote:Wxman57, that doesn't make us feel any better in the Tampa Bay area, especially if the copious amount of rainfall predicted happens.


The story of this hurricane season. The same El Niño pattern that has created a hostile environment in the GOM over the last 2-3 months has enhanced the wet pattern in central and north FL with no end in sight.
In a few years from now we will be looking at at this season saying what a dead season this was in our part of the Atlantic basin (tropical storms wise).
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#58 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:23 am

Ndg, we won't be in the Tampa Bay area. We've had record amouts of rainfall and flooding here. One of the worse summers I can remember.
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#59 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:25 am

It doesn't take a wind event or TS status to create tropical havoc.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#60 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:26 am

This winter is going to be very interesting. Maybe Similar to 1998. Hopefully no Tornadoes like that though.
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